Hopes for Calm in the Region
Aletihad, United Arab Emirates, February 2
Aletihad, United Arab Emirates, February 2
In the coming days, the trajectory of the Middle East crisis will unveil whether it will gravitate towards a perilous escalation or pivot towards a Gaza cease-fire conducive to hostage and prisoner exchange and the inflow of humanitarian assistance. Notably, the stakes are exceptionally high for President Joe Biden, Iran, and numerous influential leaders in the region. President Biden faces mounting pressure to take action against Iranian proxies responsible for the lethal assault on a US military base along the Syrian-Jordanian border on Jan. 28, claiming the lives of three American soldiers and inflicting injuries on over 20 others. Aggressive factions of the Republican party are advocating for punitive measures targeting Iranian assets, potentially within Iranian territory itself. Nevertheless, such aggressive action poses substantial risks, including the prospect of direct conflict with Iran and the unwelcome possibility of entanglement in yet another military intervention in the region, an outcome that most Americans find undesirable. Expanding the conflict carries significant implications for energy infrastructure and transportation from the Gulf region to global markets, potentially leading to a swift surge in oil prices at a time when price inflation has receded to pre-pandemic levels, imposing serious political ramifications for Biden as he gears up for his reelection campaign. Ironically, the attack on the American base coincides with progress being made on cease-fire proposals between Israel and Hamas, signaling hope for a cessation of hostilities conducive to the release of hostages held by Hamas and the liberation of thousands of Palestinians detained in Israeli prisons. This truce also holds the promise of facilitating the delivery of essential food and medical supplies to hundreds of thousands of displaced, ailing, and wounded Palestinians in Gaza. Moreover, an amelioration of conditions for Palestinians with the cessation of Israeli air attacks may assuage heightened emotions triggered by the deluge of harrowing combat footage. This development could instigate restraint from Iranian proxy forces in Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, and Syria concerning assaults on Israel, the United States, and international shipping in the Red Sea, offering respite for China and other nations reliant on maritime trade routes. A protracted cease-fire could pave the way for substantive discussions about the Gaza Strip’s future, including addressing the acute housing shortage and charting a governance framework for the strip devoid of direct involvement from the Hamas movement, issues that are bound to incite extensive debates within Israel and could potentially precipitate new general elections culminating in the conclusion of Netanyahu’s political career. Considering the manifold advantages of the cease-fire scenario over escalation and the eruption of a regional war, prospects hinge upon the Biden Administration persisting in exerting maximal diplomatic pressure to convince the Israeli government to embrace the cease-fire proposal. This approach is likely to be championed as a preferred alternative to the continuation of the prevailing war of attrition. A pivotal dynamic bolstering the quest for a settlement and concord is the concerted stance of influential families’ lobbies in Israel, emphatically advocating for the prioritization of the release of hostages subjected to perilous conditions since Oct. 7, 2023, by the Israeli coalition government. However, the overarching peril lies in the potential for a missile strike on an American vessel or the loss of numerous American troops, which could effectively trigger a substantial military response, imperiling all prospects for progress in Gaza, with reverberations extending to the region and the world at large. —Geoffrey Kemp (translated by Asaf Zilberfarb)
