Is Gaza Waiting for the US Elections?

Al-Ittihad, UAE, June 15

The Gaza crisis is reverberating within the American political agenda, and although the American electorate may prioritize domestic issues and daily lifestyle over foreign affairs, the ongoing conflict opens up a plethora of political and security scenarios. Given the difficult situation on the ground, genuine effort and commitment are required of the cease-fire mediators, particularly on the American side. Indeed, it is clear the path ahead remains fraught with challenges. Whether the mediators succeed or falter hinges on factors such as the resurgence of militant stances from both parties, as well as the Israeli government’s tendency toward escalation, compounded by recent resignations of War Cabinet ministers Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot. President Biden’s cease-fire plan and the Israeli government’s hesitations about certain aspects of it signal indecision and confusion, exacerbated by a lack of effective tools on both sides and the complex multilayered mediation framework. Despite seasoned politicians like US intelligence director William Burns and national security adviser Jake Sullivan being part of the administration, the current American mediation effort remains weak. This urgency to reach a deal is heightened by the looming presidential elections, which will soon divert the administration’s focus away from the Middle East toward Southeast Asia. Faced with a choice between unfavorable scenarios, the potential return of Donald Trump could complicate matters even further. Trump’s previous tenure saw him recognize “unified Jerusalem” as Israel’s capital, move the American Embassy there, propose the “deal of the century,” and handle the Arab-Israeli conflict as a transactional deal. The crux of the issue lies in the present and anticipated American maneuvers and the administration’s potential role in backing mediators and forging even a preliminary truce. Such a truce might merely be temporary, before clashes resume under an Israeli plan to employ military action again. This scenario suggests that achieving any cease-fire depends on altering the Israeli government’s current approach. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s strategy of force has bolstered his popularity, according to recent polls. If Trump is reelected, he may revive the “deal of the century,” adapting it to new developments and possibly provoking substantial international reactions. This approach would focus on a direct solution, avoiding political or military confrontations between the two sides. Should Biden remain in office, his proposals could be transformed into a disciplined plan, particularly if current attempts stagnate due to Israeli actions or a lack of mutual cooperation. The Israeli government’s plans could involve working on additional fronts, especially given the volatile situation along the Lebanon border, or annexing the West Bank and the Jordan Valley, thereby expediting shifts in reality on the ground. This could lead to increased tension rather than consensus, with these developments inevitably tied to the outcome of the forthcoming American elections and those in several European capitals. —Tarek Fahmy (translated by Asaf Zilberfarb)