Islamists in Sudan: From Power to Rebellion
Al-Arab, London, November 2
In recent years, the Islamic movement has consistently demonstrated a lack of strategic foresight. It has relied heavily on short-term visions and tactics devoid of comprehensiveness, resulting in ongoing confusion. The Sudanese Islamic Movement, in particular, serves as an exemplar of a system where political, organizational, military, and tribal elements are intricately woven together. It has adeptly leveraged these facets to entrench its interests and enhance its influence, adopting a model that bears a striking resemblance to the Iranian approach to constructing power networks. This approach employs both military training and ideological indoctrination. From its inception, the Sudanese Islamic Movement drew inspiration from the methods of the Iranian revolution, striving to establish an organized entity operating on multiple levels. It appeared that the ultimate aim was to secure a significant foothold in power through various mechanisms. The movement’s ambitions extended beyond mere organizational structuring; it aimed to establish military fronts, most notably the Rapid Support Forces. Originally conceived as a tool to maintain equilibrium within the military system and subsequently seize control of power, the Rapid Support Forces evolved into an independent force with its own ambitions, ultimately turning against its creators. This outcome underscores the Islamic movement’s failure to adequately calculate the long-term implications or deeply consider potential consequences. Now, with the Rapid Support Forces out of their control, the Islamic movement has turned to the “joint forces” to counter this organization. These joint forces comprise several armed factions with diverging visions and ideological orientations. This heterogeneity in ideologies and allegiances could pose a future threat to the army itself, as these groups lack absolute loyalty. It is anticipated that they may eventually resort to arms to assert their rights and interests, potentially rendering the military institution fragile and prone to defections. The Islamists face an unprecedented challenge; their absence of a strategic vision places them at risk of facing severe repercussions on security and political fronts, threatening to erode both their influence and authority. This lack of long-term vision is rooted in a fundamental crisis within their intellectual and organizational framework, where the emphasis remains on crisis management without radical solutions, all while precariously seeking power. This inconsistent approach has resulted in internal fragmentation within Islamist ranks and ongoing conflicts among their leaders, causing them to lose political credibility and widespread appeal. Should the joint forces rebel against the Islamists and take up arms, the consequences for the government in Port Sudan could be catastrophic, leading to a loss of control over western Sudan and exacerbating instability across other regions, which could further fragment the nation. The Islamists would find themselves in an increasingly difficult position, their leaders facing mounting political and military pressures that are beyond their control. In such a scenario, internal divisions within the Islamists may deepen, revealing the racist tendencies that could intensify existing fractures within the movement. Islamists are at a crossroads, encountering an unprecedented challenge as their lack of strategic vision threatens to bring about dire consequences for security and politics. This scenario risks eroding their influence and authority, potentially propelling the country into a new phase of chaos, which may pave the way for emerging political and social forces to reshape the Sudanese landscape anew. —Abdelmonem Hemat (translated by Asaf Zilberfarb)
