Israel’s War on Gaza Continues, and Attention is Shifting Towards Lebanon

An-Nahar, Lebanon, Dec. 8

Contrary to what many had hoped, Israeli forces recently resumed their attack on the Gaza Strip, commencing where they left off prior to the truce in the northern part, and progressing into a ground operation, targeting the east and center of Khan Yunis in the southern part of the strip. Israel states that the truce fell apart after Hamas declined to follow through with the prisoner exchange under the preceding conditions. Additionally, some Israeli officials suggested that the military leadership was apprehensive of the possibility of their assaulting forces losing the initiative on the battleground if the truce period was extended. It feared that Palestinian faction fighters would benefit from the truce to enhance their positions and modify their plans to confront the Israeli forces. This is discussed in a report by the Institute for the Study of War in America, which monitors military conflicts worldwide, follows the movements of armies via satellites and electronic means, and scrutinizes what is broadcast on social media in order to generate analyses and prognosticate about the route of these wars. The institute recently revealed that tactics employed by Hamas fighters had developed during the truce, providing them with the means to track the movements of Israeli forces to prepare targeted ambushes when hostilities resumed. Despite the losses incurred by the Israeli side, they continued to expand areas of control. The cease-fire created a sense of assurance among many Gazans that the war had concluded and Hamas had been victorious; this was further solidified by media outlets close to the resistance. However, when Israel resumed its bombing, people in the Gaza Strip were forced back into shelters and were displaced, yet again, this time to Khan Yunis and Rafah. Israel’s counter-move has resulted in areas being left uninhabitable; it issues evacuation warnings to targeted sites but subsequently neglects to accept responsibility for those killed within the vicinity. The American and Western response has been timid, allowing Israel to proceed with its military objectives such as dismantling Hamas’ military infrastructure and killing its leaders in the Gaza Strip. The administration of President Joe Biden reportedly reached an agreement with the leaders of the seven major countries to set up an international force to monitor security in the strip when the war is over, in conjunction with the Palestinian Authority. On the other hand, [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu’s government is rumored to have some additional plans involving the occupation of Gaza Strip and then establishing a protection barrier along its perimeter. Nevertheless, the United States and its allies are promptly attempting to depose the conservative Israeli government shortly after the end of the conflict, and implanting a less extreme government that is more compliant with American initiatives currently in the works. American officials reportedly imparted to Netanyahu that they expect the war to cease by the end of January at the latest. However, the Israeli government wants to give the army enough time to conclude the mission with few casualties, possibly lasting until March. The coming holiday period could potentially see a humanitarian truce for a week, ostensibly to release Israeli prisoners, including those who are civilians, in a bid to reduce the pressure being felt by hostage families under the Netanyahu government. But, according to Western observers, the Israeli leadership is hoping that the ferocity of the bombardment and the intensity of the ground assault will wear Hamas down in the Gaza Strip and encourage a resumption of negotiations regarding prisoner release on Tel Aviv’s terms. Recent statements from Israel’s leaders and reports from Western newspapers indicate that Tel Aviv is determined to continue its military operations for as long as it can, in order to achieve a variety of objectives. Some analysts suggest that all the extreme violence and destruction that Israel is causing, and that is going unchecked by the international community, is meant to break the resilience of the people of Gaza while creating a psychological state whereby future generations are unwilling to accept any militant resistance in the vicinity of Israeli settlements. Israel further hopes that this brutal war will restore prestige to its military and make Gaza a warning to anyone who may threaten Israel in the future. Israeli officials have even gone so far as to threaten that Lebanon or Beirut may face a similar fate to Gaza if attacks on Israel’s northern border persist. Attacks launched by Iranian-backed groups in the axis of resistance failed to dissuade Israel from proceeding with its war on Gaza. It is evident that Israel was very precise in its recent attacks on Lebanon and Syria, and thus sent a message to Tehran warning its members from the Revolutionary Guard that they had become targets. Similarly, Israel sent a warning to Lebanon, emphasizing that their retaliations would not be limited to Hizbullah alone, but extended to the whole country if bombings of Israeli settlements from Lebanon continued. Reportedly, the Lebanese government has been delivered messages through international mediators that indicate that after this conflict in Gaza ends, Israel will open a front in southern Lebanon and refuse to accept the presence of armed Hizbullah members south of the Litani River. Residents in northern Israel are calling for the elimination of the Hizbullah threat from the border in order for them to be able to go back to their homes. Meanwhile, Hizbullah’s military force has gained increasing strength in terms of the kind of weapons it holds and the effectiveness of its fighters. Given this, it appears that the scuffles in southern Lebanon may not scare Israel, as Hizbullah’s leadership would like, but rather might stimulate a heightened sense of vulnerability that will persuade Israel to launch a war on Lebanon in the foreseeable future. Netanyahu could take advantage of transferring the conflict to Lebanon after Gaza as a way to extend his tenure in office and shelve the repercussions of his government’s inability to ward off the Oct. 7 attack. If the military establishment and the minister of defense give him hearty approval to make a robust attack on Hizbullah and lay down a new boundary between them, he may well not let such a chance slip away, although the US and Europe do not approve of this course of action. —Riad Kahwaji (translated by Asaf Zilberfarb)