Lebanon: An Immediate Cease-fire or an Inevitable Disaster

An-Nahar, Lebanon, March 30

If the information provided by sources close to Hizbullah is accurate, then significant developments in southern Lebanon are on the horizon. It appears that Wafiq Safa, a security official in Hizbullah, recently visited the United Arab Emirates to convey his leadership’s willingness to cease fighting in southern Lebanon and establish a demilitarized zone under the supervision of UNIFIL and the Lebanese army. The conditions include a clear demarcation of land borders, similar to the agreement reached on maritime borders. This news comes amid Hizbullah’s involvement in supporting Hamas in Gaza and a notable shift in their official stance toward resistance against Israel. It seems that Hizbullah is signaling a desire to de-escalate tensions and seek a settlement with Israel, possibly with the mediation of the UAE, to avoid a full-scale war. However, Israeli sources have swiftly rejected any agreement that does not involve Hizbullah surrendering its weapons to the Lebanese army and relinquishing control over Lebanese territory, leading to escalated bombings in Baalbek and Hermel. This turn of events suggests that Hizbullah may have miscalculated the situation in Gaza and Israel when it decided to engage in supporting Hamas. The Gaza conflict unfolded differently than anticipated, with Israel responding aggressively to what it perceived as an existential threat. Despite international support to undermine Hamas, the situation remains dire, especially in the besieged city of Rafah. Hizbullah’s erroneous assessment of Israel’s political landscape and military readiness has led to a critical juncture. The internal turmoil in Israel did not deter the unified stance against Hizbullah, reflecting a consensus on addressing threats from both Gaza and Lebanon. The failure to heed these warning signs has left Hizbullah with a stark choice: either accept a cease-fire and disengage or face the full force of Israel’s military capabilities, potentially dragging the region into a broader conflict with severe consequences. —Ali Hamada (translated by Asaf Zilberfarb)