Nasrallah Is Playing With Fire

Maariv, Israel, October 22

Hassan Nasrallah, the secretary-general of Hizbullah, is recklessly tempting fate on the northern border, causing agitation and unease not only among the people of Israel but also among the citizens of Lebanon. This includes the members of the Shiite community, Nasrallah’s own sect, who have a justified fear of a potentially devastating war that would transform their country into a war-torn Gaza, reviving painful memories of the Second Lebanon War. It is worth noting that during that conflict, the IDF ruthlessly destroyed the Al-Dahieh district, located on the southern outskirts of Beirut and predominantly inhabited by Shiites, effectively serving as Hizbullah’s stronghold. It is no secret that Hizbullah wields dominant control in Lebanon through its military might. However, it is worth noting that the Shiite population, while making up a significant portion of the country, only constitutes about a third of the total population. The remaining majority consists of Christians and Druze, who do not share the same fervor for Nasrallah and his extremist views. In fact, they are deeply apprehensive of the potential consequences as he continues to push Lebanon, a struggling nation on the verge of economic catastrophe, toward the brink of yet another catastrophic war. The situation in Gaza serves as a stark contrast to the prevailing notion that Hamas, a purportedly pragmatic group, would prioritize solidifying its control over the region. This belief led some to believe that by showering the group with financial support from Qatar it could ensure calm along the border. However, the dynamic with Hizbullah paints a different picture. The persistent cycles of conflict with Hamas have proven one thing: the approach of seeking agreements and mutual understanding simply does not hold up against militant groups. Despite ample evidence, we continue to cling to the hopeless belief that peaceful resolutions can be reached. Meanwhile, for the past 17 years, the border with Lebanon has remained relatively calm since the Second Lebanon War. Surprisingly, ever since the onset of the conflict more than two weeks ago, Hizbullah has abstained from using its stockpile of missiles. Instead, the movement strategically engages in minor skirmishes and hostile behavior toward our soldiers stationed at the border. This calculated move seems to be a way for them to display loyalty to Hamas while avoiding the potentially disastrous consequences of a full-blown war that would undoubtedly devastate Lebanon and its Shiite population. The existence of Hizbullah’s possible involvement in a potential attack akin to the one orchestrated by Hamas remains a vexing question. Could it be that the Gaza-based group of killers has outpaced Nasrallah by a mere few months or years? After all, Hizbullah is a notoriously violent organization, with a singular aim of annihilating Israel. With a staggering stockpile of over 150,000 missiles in its possession, it far surpasses Hamas, which holds a mere fraction of that number. Not to mention, Hizbullah boasts a seasoned military force, numbering tens of thousands of troops, whom its leader has frequently threatened to mobilize for an assault on Israel in an attempt to seize the Galilee region. It can be assumed that if Nasrallah had perceived weakness and complacency in Israel and saw an opportunity to strike, he would have acted without hesitation. However, history has shown that he has been deterred for the past decade and continues to exercise caution in his actions. It is time to acknowledge the facts rather than relying on biblical prophecies about Nasrallah’s intentions. Moreover, it is crucial to reconsider our approach toward Hizbullah on the northern border in order to ensure the peace that has eluded the residents of the south. It’s time for a strategic shift in Israel’s rules of engagement. —Eyal Zisser (translated by Asaf Zilberfarb)