New and Old Turkey

Asharq Al-Awsat, London, June 9

Winning a new presidential term after a quarter of a century in the driver’s seat in Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has seen both ups and downs, from small victories to major setbacks. The prime minister since 2003 and president of the republic as of 2017, Erdoğan has been reelected to serve a five-year term that could present plenty of success as well as challenges. Undoubtedly, the next five years will offer a precarious balance between prosperity and obstacles. Erdoğan and his party, rooted in conservatism and a neo-Ottoman identity, have been faced with mounting economic, international, and regional challenges. The Russian-Ukrainian war and its aftershocks have posed particular challenges to Turkey, particularly concerning its neighbors. Incidents such as the confrontation near the Bosporus waters illustrate the extremity of the situation and provide insight into Turkey’s attempts to maintain a special stance within this conflict. Furthermore, Erdoğan’s policies in Syria going forward remain pivotal following the Arab world’s turn toward Damascus, a process that has created ripples in Turkey’s relationship with the West amid tensions in northern Syria. Speaking of Arabs, how will Turkey deal with the Muslim Brotherhood and the Arabs fleeing it, in light of Turkish attempts at establishing conciliation with the Arab world? Indeed, there are indications to temper the Turkish embrace of the Brotherhood, and likely revealing of that is the exodus of several Brotherhood emissaries from Turkey to Britain and other countries. Is it a radical transformation of Turkey and its policies moving forward? March 2024 will mark the centenary of the end and abolition of the Ottoman caliphate along with the establishment of the modern Turkish Republic by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, and the exile of the final Ottoman Caliph Abdulmejid II. I am interested in seeing how Erdoğan’s era and his international fan base will address such a significant moment in history, and how the old-new Turkish government will handle the latest developments in the region. —Meshary Al-Dhaidi (translated by Asaf Zilberfarb)