Playing With Water (and Fire)

Al-Masry Al-Youm, Egypt, July 15

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam has become one of the most important issues concerning the Egyptian people and, perhaps, the entire Arab world. This is because it revolves not merely around water, agriculture and food security – but also because it threatens the national security of several countries in the region. Many international players have acknowledged this to date, including the United States. The Arab world has been united in its support for Egypt and Sudan, including, most recently, in a statement delivered by the foreign ministers of Arab countries in their recent meeting in Doha. Unfortunately, the Arab position doesn’t seem to affect the intransigence of the Ethiopian government, which continues to provoke and defy its neighbors to the North, including by moving forward with the dam’s second filling. It’s clear that the Arab world must move from talking to doing, and threaten Addis Ababa with sanctions and penalties should it refuse to cooperate with Arab demands. I don’t know when the next round of negotiations will commence, but I expect that it will only lead to more Ethiopian intransigence and Egyptian-Sudanese steadfastness on the situation. What we know is that Egypt will not give up its right to the waters of the Nile. Likewise, Sudan – which suffers from a weaker and poorer infrastructure than Egypt, and is thus expected to be most harmed by the project – will not sit idly by as its water resources are stolen. Does Ethiopia realize this? Do the decision-makers in Addis Ababa understand that they are passing the point of no return? The answer, unfortunately, seems to be yes. – Abdul Latif Al-Manawi (translated by Asaf Zilberfarb)