Iranian opposition protesters clash with security forces in Tehran on December 27, 2009. (AFP/Getty Images)

Regime Change in Tehran is Becoming Inevitable

Al-Arab, London, June 13

The nuclear agreement signed between the P5+ and Iran was not an end goal for the Iranian regime, but rather a means of achieving a greater end. It cannot be denied that the five permanent members of the Security Council viewed the agreement as a critical objective and thus invested immense effort into bringing it to life. But at the same time, it cannot be ignored that Iran viewed the agreement as a bridge to pursue an expansionist project to which the Obama administration turned a blind eye. Only two European countries, France and Britain, demanded to go beyond what the agreement stipulates and hold Iran accountable to its actions outside the nuclear realm. France, for instance, stressed the danger of the Iranian ballistic missile program, while Britain warned against terrorist activities carried out by Iranian proxies, such as Hizbullah, throughout Europe and the West. There is no need, of course, to mention the positions of China and Russia, which have always sided with Tehran and adopted its stance wholeheartedly. Since U.S. President Donald Trump reneged on the deal, the political impasse between Washington and Tehran entered a new level. Slowly but surely, Iran began to feel the impact of the American sanctions on its economy. It also noticed the cold shoulder given it by its European counterparts, who had no choice but to align themselves with the United States. However, the fear of real physical war between Iran and the United States remains minimal. There is virtually no American appetite for an armed clash with Iran at the moment. Similarly, the mullahs seem to understand the message they’ve been sent. Therefore, there is no room for any Iranian attempts to remarket the nuclear agreement and demand new negotiations with the P5+. Europe itself is not convinced that Iran changed its intentions, and the U.S. administration knows very well all the details of Iranian behavior in the last 40 years. Iran’s insistence on developing nuclear weapons achieved nothing but sending the region into a nuclear arms race. Iran has long lost the war it thought it had waged against the United States. This is because it has not built a strong economy, has not established a robust political system, and has not been successful at convincing others of its ideology. The real question now is whether Iran will change by reforming itself and getting rid of the mullah regime. I believe this is an inevitable change that is bound to happen, even if Trump and his secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, repeatedly deny the claim that the United States is seeking regime change in Iran. – Kheir Allah Kheir Allah (translated by Asaf Zilberfarb)

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