Resistance Can Change the International Balance of Power

Al-Masry Al-Youm, Egypt, March 9

Throughout history there have been numerous examples of instances in which a weaker party managed to defy the expectations of a stronger power, and even led to a triumph despite a huge disparity in power. The experience of Egyptian steadfastness in the face of the tripartite aggression of 1956 led to its victory, changing the map of international powers, bringing an end to British control over the Suez Canal, and giving rise to the era of national liberation. The success of these small resistance groups against colonialist powers – armed with unmatched money and weapons – can only be attributed to the moral, political and legal legitimacy of the weaker party under occupation. The victory of Egypt, led by President Gamal Abdel Nasser, was derived from morally legitimate tools and effective popular and political pressure cards played by Egypt, even though it was the weakest party in the equation. The war in Ukraine is a great example of this equation. Today, there is incredible steadfastness on the Ukrainian side, despite the great disparity in power between the two sides. The people of Ukraine, as is normal, are defending their land and country vigorously, all while receiving economic and military support from Western powers.  If we compare the Russian attack on Ukraine with the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, we will find that the absence of any regional or international support for Iraq and the exhaustion of the country with a siege that lasted more than a decade made Iraq’s ability to withstand the war very limited. In contrast, Ukraine is supported by the entire Western world, even if some of this support isn’t material. Ukraine’s steadfastness in this case does not mean victory, but it will mean a change in the international balance of power. On the one hand, it changed the calculations of Russia, which was envisioning a quick war. On the other hand, it also changed the calculations of the West, which wants to drain and isolate Russia and bring an end to its expansionist agenda. The success of Putin’s strategy in neutralizing Ukraine and preventing its accession to NATO is still likely. And yet the steadfastness of the Ukrainian people is probably going to be the sole factor preventing Russia from continuing its occupation of other European countries, such as Poland and the Baltic states. –Amr Al-Shobaki (translated by Asaf Zilberfarb)