Syria’s Collapse: A Case Study in the Death of a Sovereign State
Al Yamamah, Saudi Arabia, December 18
The Peace of Westphalia has traditionally been regarded as the foundation of the modern sovereign nation-state system, yet its legacy is under scrutiny amidst present-day global challenges, raising questions about its validity and sustainability. Historically, empires have signified power and control but also reflect the transient nature of prominent political entities immortalized in history. Despite their vast influence, empires harbor the seeds of both their rise and fall, with their lifecycles hinging on adaptability to political, economic, and social challenges. Empires typically begin with periods of expansion and prosperity, as internal forces unify and extend influence over vast regions. However, they often face internal decay, such as corruption and conflict, or external pressures, like invasions or competition, eventually rendering them vulnerable to fragmentation. These dynamics illustrate the fragility of even the most potent political entities. Sovereign nation-states, the Westphalian order’s inheritors, are not immune to similar fates, facing comparable threats from climate change, economic crises, and conflict, which test their resilience as they once did empires. The notion of “state death” has become essential in political analysis. In her book State Death, author Tanisha Fazal identifies two dimensions of the decline of states: externally, through the loss of sovereignty over foreign policy, leading to exit from the international system, and internally, through the collapse of political and social institutions, which render the state nonfunctional. This “death” signifies a transformative point where a state fails to address internal and external challenges, losing its place on the world stage or evolving into an entity without legitimacy. This stimulates dialogue about the fragility of sovereignty and nation-states amid political and social upheavals. Reflecting on the current transformations seen in Syria reveals acute challenges to its unity as a political entity. Since the Syrian revolution began in 2011, the country’s fragmentation has intensified, with government-controlled territories shrinking rapidly and multiple areas falling under different forces. Syria’s inability to conduct essential state functions, such as managing foreign policy and defending borders, has become apparent. Entities like Iran, Hezbollah, and Russia have entrenched themselves within Syria, impacting military structures and exerting control over Syrian policy. Syria has become a battleground for regional and international interventions, with crucial roles played by countries like Russia and Iran, and groups like Hezbollah, affecting military operations and foreign policy directions. The regime’s fate is tightly linked to its external backers, and any decline in their shield weakens Syria further. Despite regaining about 70% of its territory since 2018, the regime struggled to maintain control in peripheral areas, battling severe economic crises and failing to provide basic services. Power outages in regions have fueled public discontent, emboldening opposition forces. The erosion of Syrian sovereignty depended on the regime’s reliance on allies like Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah—essential stabilizers in the past. This dependency allowed opposition groups like Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham to exploit weaknesses quickly amid diminished state authority. The Syrian army’s politicization, serving regime interests, and its sectarian composition, predominantly Alawite, aligned its fate with the ruling sect. This prevented the military from maintaining national neutrality, driving societal divisions and weakening cohesion. When Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham attacked, the army could not defend the state effectively, leading to rapid territorial losses for the Assad regime. As Syria internally and externally unravels, the concept of “state death” materializes, signifying the breakdown of core structures essential to the state’s stability. Syria’s fragmentation into ineffective entities could ignite internal strife and escalate regional threats. Such disintegration might enable armed groups to rise, destabilizing neighboring areas and creating havens for terrorism, propelling the Middle East into chaos. The deterioration of the Syrian situation affects regional security, as the regime’s fall creates a vacuum open to exploitation. Israel, under security pretexts, might extend beyond the Golan Heights, while Turkey could deepen its influence in Syria to safeguard borders against Kurdish groups. This situation challenges Syria’s unity, reflecting possible splintering into spheres aligned with major powers’ interests. The lack of a united political vision leaves Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham struggling to present a viable national alternative, increasing the likelihood of territorial fragmentation. Syria’s division looms as a potential political reality. Support for Syria must consider its collapse’s impact on regional and global security, prompting efforts by major powers to bolster regional stability. The disintegration of Syria threatens to open a Pandora’s box of chaos, potentially engulfing the region in conflict and instability with dire consequences. —Salman Al-Anzi (translated by Asaf Zilberfarb)
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