The Dangers of the Upcoming Rafah Campaign

Maariv, Israel, February 10

In recent days, tensions in bilateral relations between Israel and Egypt have escalated due to the possibility of Israel conducting a military operation against Hamas battalions in the densely populated Rafah area. Egypt is expressing its indignation out of fear that such military activity could cause significant harm to the population and increase domestic criticism against the Egyptian regime. Additionally, there are concerns that this activity could intensify pressure on Egypt to allow humanitarian aid or enable the flow of refugees into the Sinai territory. These reports of potential Israeli activity in Rafah have elicited strong reactions not only in Egypt but also among other Arab countries, as well as in the US and Europe. For example, the Saudi Foreign Ministry has issued a warning about the dangerous consequences of an Israeli operation in Rafah. It is important to note that there has been dissatisfaction in Egypt regarding ideas discussed in Israel about the relocation of populations and unilateral actions in the Philadelphi Corridor. Egyptian officials have warned that such actions are a red line for the regime and pose a threat to Egypt’s national security. This could potentially strain the continued cooperation between the two countries. According to various reports, the Egyptian regime itself has recently increased surveillance measures in the Rafah area to prevent Gazans from attempting to breach the border. Maintaining peace with Egypt is a crucial strategic asset for Israel and a central pillar of its national security. Like Jordan, Egypt has been balancing internal anger from its population on one hand and its long-term strategic interests on the other. Egypt seeks Israel’s success in overthrowing the Hamas regime in Gaza, understanding that this is part of a larger campaign between the US-led camp and the Axis of Resistance led by Iran. The outcome of this war will have significant regional ramifications. Furthermore, Egypt plays a crucial role in negotiating a new plan for the safe return of hostages. It is even expected to be a key player in finding a long-term solution to prevent smuggling through the Philadelphi Corridor and to assist in the reconstruction of Gaza after the war. Egypt’s stance aligns with [US] President [Joe] Biden’s position on the role of the Palestinian Authority in Gaza’s rehabilitation and the pursuit of a two-state solution. Given these considerations, the Israeli government needs to factor in Egypt’s interests and respond to them discreetly through diplomatic channels. This should be done while maintaining the determined military activity aimed at defeating Hamas. Within this context, it is essential to avoid making unnecessary and provocative statements or proposing ideas that may embarrass the Egyptian government or compromise the delicate fabric of relations between our two countries. Therefore, [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu should clearly express opposition to unilateral actions that could harm Egyptian sovereignty and emphasize that the motivation to harm or displace the population is not on the table. Israel’s ability to achieve the goals of the war will greatly depend on a combination of military strength, determination, and political astuteness. —Dr. Shay Har-Zvi (translated by Asaf Zilberfarb)