The Gaza War Negatively Affected the American Presence in the Region

An-Nahar, Lebanon, January 12

Since the Al-Aqsa Flood operation on October 7, the United States’ presence and deployment in the region have been facing a serious crisis. Amid the fierce and destructive Israeli war on Gaza, several fronts have ignited against American forces, which previously held a comfortable position in Syria, Iraq, and the regional seas, spanning from the Red Sea to the Gulf of Oman. Gradually, this has changed under the Iranians’ slogan of supporting Gaza without engaging in a full-scale war with the United States and Israel. The reality is that American military bases in Iraq and eastern Syria have been targeted more than 120 times by missile strikes or explosive drones launched by Iraqi factions affiliated with the Popular Mobilization Forces, effectively controlled by Iran through the Iranian Quds Force. These attacks, aimed at vital American influence in the Middle East, have now reached a point where they can no longer be ignored. Iran’s intentions have become clear, calling for an increase in attacks on American forces through guerrilla warfare, thereby raising the cost of remaining in the region, and potentially reopening the issue of American deployment in the Middle East within the corridors of the US Congress during a presidential election year. Former President Donald Trump also had a stance on the American presence in Iraq, mentioning calls from the Iraqi government to hasten the American exit following the targeting of Iraqi militias that had launched attacks on American bases. Trump stated that “there’s no point in staying there if they don’t want us.” Although American forces have not suffered any casualties thus far, the pressure on them has increased, leading to movement restrictions out of fear of ambushes in both Iraq and Syria. This development has posed a significant challenge to American policy in Iraq, as Iran seemingly declares war on the American presence in the Middle East in the name of responding to the Gaza conflict. However, the matter is more complex than just targeting American bases. It is intricately linked to the balance of power between Iranian and American influence in Iraq, where both have coexisted for many years. Iraq’s stability cannot be ensured by Iran alone, which represents a closed sectarian environment within a country that is ethnically and religiously divided. Furthermore, economic and financial factors make Iraq’s detachment from the United States an impossibility in the foreseeable future. —Ali Hamada (translated by Asaf Zilberfarb)