The Syrian Bear Awakens
Maariv, Israel, December 7
The Syrian conflict, seemingly dormant, has reignited with unexpected intensity, exposing a complex web of interests. Echoing the chaos of 2014, the situation rapidly evolves, forcing all parties into strategic vigilance. At the heart of this turmoil are fundamentalist Islamic factions, bolstered by Turkish and Qatari support, opposed by Kurdish and Shiite forces. The dynamics see Kurds vying for control over vast eastern territories bordering Jordan and Iraq, while Tahrir al-Sham, a Sunni military group, seeks dominance in Syria’s densely populated core. Entering from the east, ISIS—backed by Turkey and Qatar—clashed primarily with Syria’s YPG and Iraq’s PKK. After four years, the Kurds, buoyed by American air support, defeated ISIS, a triumph resented by Turkey, which seeks to suppress Syrian Kurds. Despite ongoing tensions with Turkish-backed Islamist factions, the Kurds maintained control over roughly 40% of Syria, particularly the Jazira region in the northeast. When the Assad regime neared collapse around 2014, Russian, Hezbollah, and Iraqi militias intervened, aligning with Assad’s Alawites to push back secular and jihadist rebels to Idlib. The civil war’s end left Syria divided: Kurds controlling the northeast, desert regions in Deir ez-Zur troubled by ISIS remnants, insurgent strongholds in Idlib, Assad’s control over urban centers with support from Hezbollah and Iranian militias, and a rebel pocket in Daraa, safeguarded by the USA. This complex landscape involves four major power blocs: first, Kurds and the United States; second, Assad’s regime with Iran, Hezbollah, and Russia; third, Turkey-backed jihadists, including Tahrir al-Sham, and fourth, Russia’s separate agenda to maintain its naval base in Latakia, unhampered by Iranian or Turkish influence. Tahrir al-Sham’s recent offensive, led by Abu Mohammad al-Julani, coincides with Hezbollah’s setbacks and Iran’s strategic vulnerabilities. Iran’s exposure leaves it unable to counter Israel effectively, allowing Tahrir al-Sham, fueled by Turkish training and arms, to act assertively. Julani, despite Turkish ambitions to control the Kurds, promotes a Syrian federation, a prospect unsettling to Turkey, which fears a Kurdish autonomous zone on its border. Kurds, potentially guided by American and Israeli interests, have targeted Iranian-Iraqi militias in Deir ez-Zur, seeking to control more of Syria’s oil resources. This also serves Israeli and anti-Turkish interests. If confirmed, it marks Israel’s first overt stance against Turkey since the 2010 Gaza flotilla incident. The Kurds’ recent capture of the Al-Bukamal crossing, ISIS’s and Iranian militias’ supply route, signals strategic gains in southern Syria. Israel, which is finding itself militarily unmatched in the region after conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon, confronts a unique position. Turkey’s attempts to influence Syria via jihadist proxies like Tahrir al-Sham run counter to Israeli interests. Yet, Julani’s allegiance remains uncertain, challenging Turkish plans and complicating Israeli calculations. With the current offensive, Tahrir al-Sham seems unstoppable. Their goal is to dismantle Assad’s regime, eject Russians and Iranians—historical Turkish adversaries—and exploit regional chaos. Meanwhile, the Kurds expand eastward, eyeing a connection with Daraa. Their aspirations align with a long-held desire to border Israel—a shared interest potentially challenging Turkish ambitions. Israel has no intention of tolerating a Turkish-jihadist coalition on the Golan Heights border. Ironically, Israel, by threatening Tahrir al-Sham, emerges as the Alawites’ improbable defender, to which even Assad appears to have appealed. Meanwhile, communities like the Christians and Kurds in Aleppo are fleeing to Kurdish-administered areas. Yesterday, a Kurdish friend in Rojava told me they are struggling to accommodate 300,000 refugees from Tahrir al-Sham’s advance. In the Druze-dominated areas of Jebel Druze, local populations have declared autonomy, erasing regime presence and freeing prisoners, potentially aligning with Israeli interests. As alliances shift, Israel faces the dilemma of intervening on behalf of the Druze or bolstering Kurdish resistance against Turkish and jihadist encroachments. Israel and Turkey, whose relations soured in 2010, now find their military dynamics altered. Israel’s improved strategic position is significant, yet the situation remains volatile. In this unpredictable landscape, the lack of decisive leadership raises concerns about Israel’s ability to navigate these waters. Whoever appointed Israel Katz as minister of defense must ensure that he steers Israel wisely through this critical geopolitical juncture. —Tzur Shezaf (translated by Asaf Zilberfarb)
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