The Ukraine War ‘Americanized’ Europe and Weakened Its Unity
Asharq Al-Awsat, London, December 1
Certain events can be described as pivotal in terms of their repercussions, which may affect political systems, laws and the conditions of societies around the world. Nazi Germany’s invasion of Poland on September 1, 1939, for example, led to the collapse of the international system that existed since the end of World War I. Similarly, the collapse of the Berlin Wall on November 9, 1989 is another example, which led to the demise of the bipolar system that had prevailed since the Potsdam Conference in 1945, after which the world was divided into a capitalist camp led by the United States and a socialist camp led by the Soviet Union. Today we can say that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a pivotal event that undoubtedly led to global repercussions. However, it is not yet clear what the world will look like once this war comes to an end. The possibilities are many, and each of them indicates a change in the international system. Russian President Vladimir Putin may have had his reasons and motivations to invade Ukraine, but his decision lacked almost any knowledge of his own army’s capabilities. He also grossly miscalculated the European and American reactions to his campaign. One of the leaders of the Russian opposition who took refuge in London recently said that Putin believed that the world would look the other way following the invasion, as it did when Russia annexed Crimea. Putin’s biggest mistake was that he overestimated Europe’s reliance and dependence on Russian energy and food resources. The Russian president also believed that if Europe acquiesces to American pressure to repel the invasion, he will simply head East to break the blockade. China and India are in dire need of gas, oil, minerals, wheat and fertilizers – which Putin hoped to supply them with in lieu of European exports. The problem for Russia is that its gas pipeline infrastructure is largely designed to ship gas to Europe. A European boycott of Russian gas will inevitably lead to a major decline in Gazprom’s revenues, without any backup markets. Europe, which is facing many difficulties as a result of the Ukraine war, will not back down from its position, even if this leads to the complete halt of production. It realizes that it will suffer economically, politically and socially for a few years, during which it will correct a mistake it made in the form of reliance on Russia as a primary energy provider. The cost of this mistake is certainly very high, and it may lead to growing tensions within the European Union; but as a result of the war there is also a clear European pivot toward the United States and NATO. In an interview with Henry Kissinger, the veteran US statesmen predicted that there are three possibilities for the war in Ukraine. The first is the stationing of the Russian army in Donetsk and Luhansk and annexing them to Russia, which will be considered a Russian victory, albeit a moral one. The second possibility is a complete Russian withdrawal from Ukraine, except for Crimea, which would be a humiliating defeat for Russia and Putin. The third possibility is the continuation of the battles and their transformation into an endless war. Kissinger hinted that he prefers the first possibility as a solution to the impasse. The question is, how will Russia act when it becomes abundantly clear that demands that Russian officials have repeatedly described as “absolutely inevitable” will be rejected by Western countries? – Huda Al-Husseini (translated by Asaf Zilberfarb)
