The US Elections and the Fossil Fuel Dilemma

Al-Ittihad, UAE, January 4

As President Joe Biden enters his reelection year, it is widely acknowledged that the state of the American economy will play a major role in determining his electoral success. For most voters, the price of gasoline at their local gas stations is viewed as a crucial indicator of their overall well-being and its impact on daily economic activity. Therefore, low or moderate oil prices are likely to work in Biden’s favor, while high oil prices could prove detrimental to his chances of winning. The president, however, finds himself in a challenging position due to his administration’s global role in advocating for a reduction in fossil fuel dependence to combat the ever-looming threat of global warming. Former Secretary of State John Kerry, who serves as Biden’s special envoy for climate change, tirelessly travels the world to attend conferences and call for more environmentally friendly policies to save our planet. Ironically, the United States has emerged as the world’s leading producer of oil, natural gas, and refined oil, with daily oil production surpassing 13 million barrels. It has also become one of the four largest oil-exporting nations. With the aid of innovative technology and corporate consolidation, the American oil and natural gas industry has managed to reduce production costs, making its products highly attractive and sought-after in international markets. These remarkable statistics would have undoubtedly been a source of pride for previous American leaders, especially in light of predictions a decade ago that the country would become increasingly dependent on imported fossil fuels, thereby increasing reliance on oil from the Gulf and South America. However, Biden and his administration have chosen to remain remarkably silent on these success stories. Meanwhile, Republicans continue to criticize the restrictions imposed by Biden on regions within the United States that could potentially open up to new oil development projects. In stark contrast, Donald Trump has highlighted his intention to encourage drilling and exploration for oil and gas from day one of his potential new administration. These words resonate strongly with Trump’s supporters. Republicans, in general, demonstrate less concern than their Democratic counterparts regarding the dangers of climate change and the role played by carbon emissions from fossil fuels in exacerbating this global crisis. Democrats, particularly younger voters, are deeply committed to addressing climate change and staunchly support international efforts to reduce reliance on fossil fuels. These voters represent a crucial demographic for Biden, whose victory in November largely hinges on securing their support. Additionally, these individuals are typically proponents of women’s reproductive rights, including the freedom to make choices regarding health matters such as abortion. They are also deeply concerned about the United States’ involvement in the Middle East. It is worth noting that Biden’s strong support for Israel during the Gaza conflict has disappointed and alienated a significant number of Muslim voters who may have otherwise considered supporting him or opting for a third-party candidate, or even choosing to abstain from voting altogether. In essence, a substantial portion of Biden’s potential voter base is disenchanted by his energy policies and foreign policy decisions. It remains uncertain whether the concessions made at the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) concerning climate change and fossil fuels will be sufficient to appease young Democratic voters who ardently believe that more must be done to curb global warming. Therefore, one of the many challenges Biden will face in the upcoming months is reconciling the conflicting messages his administration sends on fossil fuels and climate change. Moreover, if the conflict in the Middle East were to escalate and spill over into the Red Sea region, the implications for the global oil market could be significant, heralding repercussions for fuel prices that directly affect American voters. This complicates the already challenging situation faced by President Biden and adds another layer of complexity to his reelection campaign. —Geoffrey Kemp (translated by Asaf Zilberfarb)