Trumpism: Risks and Opportunities
Asharq Al-Awsat, London, February 6
Many assert that the words of Donald Trump, the returning American president, are mere bluster. In my view, Trump could be anything—either an empty sound bomb or a truly destructive force.
We are on the brink of four potentially extraordinary years that could either morph into our worst fears, leaving Palestinians without a land, or realize the dream of a Palestinian state. His policies might ignite a dangerous regional war with Iran or herald a new era of regional peace, putting an end to decades of Arab-Western conflicts and tensions with Iran. He could either catalyze regime falls and ensuing chaos or foster security and peace regionwide.
This is not an overstatement—Trump is undeniably unpredictable. Whether joking or serious, he cannot be ignored.
Not even 100 days into his new tenure, he has already dismissed the FBI director, disrupted the United States Agency for International Development’s operations, fired 10,000 of its employees, halted all American aid globally, withdrawn from the World Health Organization, and initiated the mass deportation of illegal immigrants, with military planes carrying them out of the United States at an unprecedented pace. This has forced several Latin American presidents to accommodate them.
The Canadian prime minister has also scrambled to deploy about a quarter of a million soldiers and border guards to curb infiltration and smuggling, just as Mexico has done. Meanwhile, meetings are underway in Brussels, the European Union’s capital, to deliberate over Trump’s intentions to cut support for Ukraine and hike tariffs on European products.
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If such actions don’t illustrate Trump’s character and management style, what lies ahead may be even more profound.
Before Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit to Washington, Trump lifted restrictions on the sale of 2,000-pound bombs to Israel—restrictions imposed by his predecessor, Biden—and announced measures aimed at preventing Iran from exporting its oil.
As we come to understand this American president, now more formidable than before, it’s essential to assess the issues he will address. Refusing to engage with him carries steep costs, and despite Trump’s repeated assurances of not resorting to military force against opponents, he can still inflict economic harm on those who dissent.
Trump wields two key weapons. The first is economic and financial. This includes raising tariffs—though fortunately, Arab exports to the US are minimal—or cutting aid. Arab nations receiving aid need to reorganize their affairs if they plan on noncooperation and should not expect alternative support from other Arab nations or international allies, as Trump is likely to penalize governments and international banks that back dissenting regimes against him.
The second weapon is political. Conflicts with Trump will be exploited by opposition forces like the Muslim Brotherhood, seeking to capitalize on the political climate. They will aim to incite public dissent against Trump and embarrass Arab governments with propaganda campaigns, while simultaneously maneuvering closer to the Trump administration for their own goals, much like their strategy in 2011.
The Trump administration faces two significant challenges: Iran and Palestine, with related crises branching out to include Yemen’s Houthi rebels, Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq. Should Israel resolve to obliterate Iran’s nuclear capabilities, it must wait until Trump’s negotiation attempts, likely to commence soon, fail.
It wouldn’t be inconceivable for the Iranian leadership to collaborate with Trump, given its substantial losses, cutting its external power by over half following the destruction of Hamas and Hezbollah capabilities and the downfall of the Assad regime.
The threat is compounded by Trump’s decision to reimpose the oil embargo on Iran and possibly upping the ante with the threat of an Israeli strike on its nuclear infrastructure, risking Iran’s loss of crucial negotiating leverage.
Of urgent concern is Trump’s project to depopulate Gaza, with more significant challenges anticipated.
Abdulrahman Al-Rashed (translated by Asaf Zilberfarb)
