Trump’s Victory in Iowa and the Upcoming US Elections
Al-Ittihad, UAE, January 18
Al-Ittihad, UAE, January 18
On the evening of January 15, Donald Trump won the Iowa caucuses with ease, marking the beginning of the primary season that will determine the Republican Party’s leader for the upcoming US presidential elections in November. Trump garnered slightly over 50% of the votes, while Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley secured second and third place, each receiving around 20% of the votes. These results did not surprise observers, although the voter turnout was lower than usual due to severe weather conditions in Iowa. Iowa is by no means a typical state, with a population of just over 3 million people, 90% of whom identify as white. Known for its conservative leanings, Iowa favored Donald Trump by a 10% margin in the previous two presidential elections. However, as the first state to cast its votes, Iowa’s election outcomes hold national significance. DeSantis and Haley campaigned extensively in the state for months, aiming to narrow Trump’s victory margin and bolster their prospects for the upcoming primaries in January and February. While they didn’t beat Trump, they did demonstrate that almost half of Republican voters preferred an alternative to his candidacy. On January 23, the elections in New Hampshire will take place. Unlike Haley, DeSantis did not allocate substantial resources to this campaign. According to polling data, Haley has a chance to catch up to Trump and potentially surpass him, providing her with the necessary momentum to position herself favorably in her home state of South Carolina, which will hold its primary on February 23. However, if Haley fails to leverage this momentum to bolster her campaign’s finances and organization, her chances of challenging Trump in significant states like California, Texas, and Florida are likely to dwindle. The prevailing belief, unless any unforeseen dramatic events occur, such as a health issue for Trump, is that the November election will reprise the electoral contest between Biden and Trump. This outcome is not what the majority of Americans desire, particularly considering the domestic and international challenges the country currently faces. President Biden is grappling with three international crises in the Middle East, Ukraine, and East Asia. His immediate challenge involves providing additional aid to both Ukraine and Israel while simultaneously striving to prevent the escalation of the Gaza conflict, which has triggered military actions in Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, and Syria. Moreover, he confronts internal issues, primarily the uncontrollable surge of illegal immigration. Republicans, who hold the majority in the House of Representatives, refuse to support increased aid to Ukraine unless it is coupled with new, stricter immigration policies. The immigration problem has not only expanded from border states to major American cities but has also fueled homelessness and street violence. One of Trump’s challenges arises from the deep divisions within the Republican Party, especially regarding providing more aid to Ukraine. Trump has yet to formulate a coherent and cohesive foreign policy, aside from touting that under his presidency, these crises would have never occurred and that he would swiftly resolve them if reelected. Meanwhile, despite positive economic news, many Americans are feeling unease and apprehension. In his campaign, Trump will make promises of radically transforming the political system, including extensive purging of the so-called “swamp” of Washington. He pledges to appoint a new cohort of officials who prioritize loyalty to Donald Trump above all else, rather than the [US] Constitution. These claims underpin arguments that a vote for Trump equates to endorsing an authoritarian, anti-democratic leader who would not hesitate to abuse his power for vengeance, settling personal scores, and steering Americans toward dictatorship. While this may be no more than electoral hype, Democrats and anti-Trump Republicans perceive it as a potential threat that must be combated on all fronts. —Geoffrey Kemp (translated by Asaf Zilberfarb)
