US Elections and a Cease-Fire in Gaza

Ahram, Egypt, February 2

Ahram, Egypt, February 2

Israel is keenly aware that time is not on its side, given various factors, with the most critical being the approaching climax of the US presidential campaign. Israeli leaders recognize the unique demands of these elections, with the reelected president historically seeking to defuse contentious issues amid polarized internal opinions and increasing criticism. President Biden, who is no exception to this trend, is perhaps even more compelled to adhere to it. Gaza stands as a key priority among the fronts he will seek to pacify without deviating from his unwavering support for Israel. However, amid the elections, public outrage over alleged Israeli war crimes and the US administration’s consistent backing of Israel has created a vulnerability ripe for exploitation by Biden’s rival, Donald Trump. Signs of the Biden Administration’s bid to ease tensions in Gaza have begun to surface, with reports suggesting an impending agreement between Hamas and Israel on fundamental points of contention. This potential agreement could see the release of Israeli prisoners by Hamas in exchange for the liberation of a significant number of Palestinian detainees by Israel. Negotiations continue on the duration of the cease-fire, with Hamas aiming for a longer period, while Israel is resistant to anything beyond a few months. While these reports could be deliberate leaks to gauge reactions, the current climate seems conducive to such a proposal. The suffering in Gaza and its impact on Hamas’ decision-making, coupled with an opportunity for Israel to manage its military setbacks, present a compelling case for all involved parties. —Ahmed Abdel-Tawwab (translated by Asaf Zilberfarb)