What Comes After the Ground Invasion?
Al-Ittihad, UAE, October 28
As the Gaza conflict rages on into its third week, the Israeli campaign shows no signs of coming to an end. The dynamics at play—the hostage crisis, the humanitarian crisis, the fate of foreigners stranded in Gaza, and the threat of the war escalating—are dictating the course and longevity of the fighting. These are the key factors that have compelled Israel to hold off on a ground invasion. On October 7, Hamas launched a violent attack on Israel, taking over 200 hostages. Reports indicate that individuals from approximately 30 different nations were either held captive or killed during the assault, with many being transported into Gaza. While it is suspected that Hamas did not intend to amass such a large number of hostages, the swift actions and lack of preparation by Israel resulted in their rapid transfer without proper verification of identities. As a result, numerous countries are now diligently working to secure the safe release of their citizens. This puts significant pressure on Hamas to release some hostages, while simultaneously urging Israel to refrain from launching a ground assault that could potentially lead to the loss of numerous innocent lives. The delicate state of affairs highlights the need for a swift and effective resolution to prevent further escalation. It is highly probable that Hamas will persist in exploiting the hostages as a bargaining tool to secure an influx of essential resources like food, water, and medicine. However, the question remains: will Israel consent to the inclusion of fuel in the aid convoy heading to Gaza? This decision hinges on the establishment of a system to guarantee that the majority of the fuel delivered actually reaches the hospitals in critical need, allowing their generators to function and preserving the precious lives of those affected by constant Israeli air strikes. As the days pass, the humanitarian crisis is worsening, placing increasing political pressure on both Hamas and Israel. This heightens the urgency for them to reconsider their tactics, as the risk of a full-scale war in the already turbulent Middle East grows. Such a conflict would prove catastrophic for not only the region but also for the entire international community. Recognizing this, the European Union, Britain, and the United States have all stepped up their efforts to delay Israel’s ground invasion into Gaza. Amid these calls, US President Joe Biden and his top officials have advised caution, drawing from their own experiences of responding in haste and with excessive force following the 9/11 attacks. Their message to Israel is clear: learn from our past mistakes. Despite claims from Israeli military leaders that their forces are ready for action, even retired soldiers caution against the challenges of urban warfare. This is especially true for an invading force that lacks familiarity with urban environments, unlike Hamas militants who have been preparing for such a conflict for years. Furthermore, there is considerable apprehension regarding the aftermath of a potential ground invasion. Despite the elimination or detainment of all Hamas members, there seems to be a lack of a viable plan for the next steps. The pressing question remains: who will assume responsibility for the administration of the heavily damaged Gaza? Uncertainty looms over the financial burden of rebuilding, upholding essential infrastructure, and tending to the needs of civilians—all of which pose significant and costly obstacles. At present, Israel is governed by a coalition government. However, with the conflict’s cessation, it is improbable for [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu to retain his position as prime minister, as a striking 70% of Israelis believe he is to blame for the most catastrophic blunder in Israeli security since the establishment of the Jewish state in 1948. A potential new Israeli government with a centrist stance may seek to revive the long-stalled peace process and, in turn, tackle the pressing issue of reaching a resolution with the Palestinians. The recent turmoil of war has the potential to galvanize both Israel and its neighboring Arab nations toward collaboration in finding a political solution to this longstanding conflict. Without such proactive efforts, the inevitable outcome will be ongoing and costly warfare, made all the more perilous by advances in weapons technology. —Geoffrey Kemp (translated by Asaf Zilberfarb)
