What Will Become of Hezbollah?

Okaz, Saudi Arabia, October 3

Israel has finally succeeded in targeting the leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, after 18 years of hiding. This marks a significant blow to Hezbollah and its Iranian allies. The sequence of setbacks inflicted on the militia began with the hacking of their communications network, followed by the assassination of over 500 field commanders in the south over the past year. The campaign culminated in the elimination of second-tier leaders and, ultimately, Nasrallah himself. For many, Hezbollah’s influence had already waned following Israel’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon in 2000. Despite this, the party insisted on retaining its arms, thus emerging as the sole armed political entity within Lebanon. This led Hezbollah to impose its will on its Lebanese counterparts, crossing a critical line in 2008 when it turned its weapons inward and occupied Beirut. At that moment, Nasrallah’s credibility—both morally and popularly—diminished. His once-revered stature further eroded as Hezbollah became the vanguard in Iran’s regional conflicts. Nasrallah’s decision to embroil Hezbollah in the Syrian crisis, despite the Lebanese government’s policy of neutrality, underscored his ascendancy over both government and state institutions. His sectarian belligerence in Syria—marked by attacks on civilians—dealt another blow to his reputation. Moreover, Nasrallah’s endorsement of hostilities against Saudi Arabia and support for the Houthi movement in Yemen drew widespread condemnation. During the recent conflict, his unwavering allegiance to Iran’s agenda overshadowed any efforts to uphold Lebanon’s stability or genuinely aid the Palestinian plight in Gaza. Now, Nasrallah departs, leaving Lebanon teetering on the edge, Hezbollah in disarray, and his legacy marred among much of the Arab populace, tainted by violence and division. When Nasrallah aligned Hezbollah with Iran’s regional ambitions, the organization transformed from a cohesive ideological entity with clear objectives into mercenaries fulfilling foreign agendas. This change necessitated increasing recruitment and liaison with foreign intelligence services, eventually exposing Hezbollah’s vulnerabilities to Israel. As highlighted in an investigative report by the Financial Times, Mossad’s penetration of Hezbollah’s ranks signaled an unprecedented moment of internal collapse reaching up to the group’s leadership, while Iranian overseers seemed indifferent. For those poised to succeed Nasrallah, there is a glimmer of hope. A reevaluation of Hezbollah’s role within Lebanon is imperative. The goal should be to evolve into a national entity invested in nation-building rather than acting as a pawn in foreign conflicts, thus avoiding a fate where they are discarded after serving their purpose or becoming a liability. —Rami Al-Khalifa Al-Ali (translated by Asaf Zilberfarb)