What’s Next After Prigozhin?

Asharq Al-Awsat, London, August 26

The crash of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s plane due to a technical malfunction, or a premeditated attack, has unfortunately resulted in the death of the Wagner militia. This event marks Prigozhin’s departure from the political and military scene, which could lead to a decrease in the Wagner Group’s role and its assimilation into official institutions. This is a result of the nature of the Russian military establishment, which cannot coexist with militias, no matter how allied or supportive they are. The assassination of Prigozhin will have repercussions on the Russian domestic sphere, regardless of how Moscow attempts to create the façade of strength and stability within its borders. It is not possible that such an event will go unnoticed and not affect the reputation of the Kremlin, both internally and in the international arena. The feat of its military ventures in Ukraine will no longer be seen with the same level of admiration. For more than two months, Prigozhin’s rebellion has captivated public opinion both locally and abroad. Speculations ran rampant as to the cause of the rebellion, Prigozhin’s objectives, the reason for his retreat, and the battle he had been waging with his comrades-in-arms in the Kremlin. The crash of Prigozhin’s plane has had a powerful influence on the collective Russian consciousness. It serves as a warning to anyone who would dare to challenge the authority of the state—whatever their strength, they will pay the price. The timing of the crash, in the wake of domestic unrest, brings into question the form of rule and the distribution of power in Russia, leaving some to speculate as to whether the accident was natural or deliberately planned. Questions of Prigozhin’s involvement in and connections to those intent on stopping the war remain unanswered. The ongoing clash between the camps of those wanting the war to continue and those in favor of ending it has seen the former hold sway, transitioning from offensive to defensive strategies. Despite Ukrainian counterattacks, the Ministry of Defense has maintained a secure position. It is yet to be seen which party will ultimately prove victorious. Amid a lack of options for direct combat, Wagner has failed to accomplish most of the tasks assigned to it in Ukraine, and its elite forces on the front lines are sparse. Its leader is likely angling to protect it from being overextended in Ukraine and saving it for potential rebellions in the North Caucasus, one of the most rancorous sites of tension for the Kremlin. Russia is now grappling with the competence of its armed forces to shield the Kremlin from possible inner coups or other uprisings. Meanwhile, President Putin is now putting his faith in the National Guard due to his waning trust in the Wagner Group and the eroding assurance in Ramzan Kadyrov, who leads the Chechen militias. —Mustafa Fahs (translated by Asaf Zilberfarb)