When Will Macron Reveal His Decision?

An-Nahar, Lebanon, January 15

Three months separate France from the first presidential election cycle scheduled for April 10, and President Emmanuel Macron is yet to reveal his decision on whether he will vie for another five-year term in office. According to all opinion polls, it is expected that Macron will be in the second round of the elections on April 24, against one of the three right-wing candidates: the candidate of the Republican Party, Valérie Pécresse, the head of the far-right National Rally, Marine Le Pen, or the far-right Éric Zemmour. According to recent polls, Macron has the support of 43% of French voters; a high level of support compared to the presidents who preceded him at the end of their term. In January 2012, Nicolas Sarkozy had 36% of popular support, while Socialist François Hollande ended his term with 26% of popular support. Macron, who is taking his time to announce his candidacy for a second term, will not face any candidate from the Left, which has become scattered and weakened. Currently, there are over nine candidates on the Left, who refuse to hold primaries that will unite their camp under one popular candidate.

It should be noted that Islam and Muslims in France are the number one enemy of Zemmour, a Jew of Algerian origin. Whenever he talks about his fear of France’s deterioration because of foreigners and Islam, he says: “If we continue as we are, France will become a second Lebanon by 2050.” In an interview with Léa Salamé on France Inter radio, Zemmour confirmed that if elected president, he would force all French people of Muslim and foreign origin to change their first names. As for Le Pen, she claims that immigrants have taken the place of the French people, and her campaign is based on the intimidation of migrants. Le Pen often attacks Zemmour and advises him to unite with her party, while Zemmour attacks Pécresse and Macron and claims that there is no difference between the two parties. Despite the severe criticism directed at Macron that he exaggerates his arrogant behavior and that he does not listen to anyone, not even his ministers, he is still the most likely to win another term because he managed the coronavirus crisis pretty effectively. Foreign policy issues are secondary to the French people, who prioritize the economy. Therefore, Macron’s opponents can use foreign issues to try and outdo him, such as his lack of success in Lebanon, Libya, and Mali or France’s and the EU’s absence in the talks between the United States and Russia over Ukraine. However, these issues will not play a pivotal role in determining the identity of the next French president. Macron had raised the criticism of his opponents when he said that he imposed the “health passport” (a national proof of vaccination system) to anger anti-vaxxers. However, the pushback didn’t lead to any major changes in opinion polls and Macron’s support remained the same. The question now is, therefore, when will the president decide to finally reveal his decision and inform the public about his intentions in the next presidential elections? –Randa Taqi Al-Din (translated by Asaf Zilberfarb)