Is the Homefront Prepared?

Conflict shifts to Israel's north with ongoing IDF-Hezbollah clashes. Despite Israel's confidence in military readiness, concerns about homefront preparedness rise.

We are in the ninth month of war. While the major focus has been the fighting in Gaza, attention is now turning to the north, where there has been a continuous exchange of fire between the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and Hezbollah, resulting in the evacuation of residents on both sides of the border.

Throughout this period, both the military and political establishments have assured the Israeli population that its armed forces are fully prepared and equipped to take on Hezbollah and devastate Lebanon if the current low-level hostilities in the north escalate into a full-scale war.

Israel’s leaders acknowledge that Hezbollah has the capability to inflict substantial damage throughout the country, as demonstrated by their ability to penetrate Israel’s aerial defenses repeatedly. However, they remain supremely confident that Israel will prevail.

Whether the nation has confidence in this rhetoric is debatable after the debacle of October 7. The same mindset of appeasing Hamas before October 7 has been mirrored by the failure to enforce UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which required Hezbollah to remain behind the Litani River.

There is also a strong sentiment in many circles that the damage Israel inflicted in 2006 has served as a deterrent to Hezbollah. Many commentators believe Hezbollah is not interested in an all-out conflict with Israel.

Additionally, the doctrine of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) during the Cold War, where neither the US nor the Soviet Union were prepared to launch nuclear weapons despite numerous conflicts, is relevant here.

The level of destruction that would ensue if war breaks out will be massive but will not necessarily change the realities on the ground.

The fallacy of these arguments lies in the nature of the enemy. Israel is dealing with Iran, driven by a pathological and genocidal intent inspired by a supremacist Islamic ideology that cannot accept the existence of a Jewish state.

As tensions on the border have escalated over the last month and rhetoric from both sides has intensified, attention has also turned to whether the homefront is sufficiently prepared.

It was, therefore, with some degree of alarm when Shaul Goldstein, CEO of Noga, which is responsible for planning Israel’s electricity systems, delivered a bleak warning that Hezbollah has the ability to destroy Israel’s electricity grid, making the country uninhabitable due to its reliance on electricity.

Despite extensive pushback and a stream of assurances that the country is equipped to cope with such threats, how confident can we be to rely on such assurances?

The IDF’s Home Front Command, established in 1992 to enhance civilian protection and coordinate emergency response during crises, has had nine months to refine and plan for any wartime scenario that may arise.

Confidential sources have assured me that the Home Front Command has implemented all possible measures for war planning. Yet, no guarantees can be provided that all outcomes have been considered.

During the first two months of the war, when there was incessant rocket fire from Gaza, a Home Front Command representative was consistently present on television and other media, providing guidance and instructions to the populace.

However, the firing of rockets from Gaza was nothing new to residents in targeted areas. Israel also had the benefit of the Iron Dome, which performed admirably but did not provide total protection. We cannot expect to emerge unscathed if war breaks out.

The threat from Hezbollah’s array of missiles, drones, and other tools poses a far greater danger than the rockets fired by Hamas.

Given these realities, it is crucial for the government and the military to provide more detailed information (where possible) and to prepare the nation now rather than adopt a laissez-faire approach. This should be done without inducing panic, as seen when residents rushed to purchase electric generators after Goldstein’s warnings.

Finally, it would be more prudent for the government and IDF to refrain from issuing bellicose statements threatening to destroy Lebanon and instead focus on their civic duty to protect their citizens.