Staking Normalization: The Quest for the Crown Jewel of the Middle East

But decoding the Middle East is never simple; predictable and unpredictable events from any one of the players could bring a halt to the entire process. The stakes are high.

Known as “MBS,” Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia has his eye keenly on keeping his kingdom secure from a nuclear-capable Iranian regime, and this arms race has expedited the rush to a pact with the Jewish state.

For years, the Israeli defense and high-tech echelon has held secret meetings, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu himself having clandestinely met the crown prince. Yet, the public needs to understand the trial balloons, messages, and actions that have been leading up to letting the world enter the Saudi stage.

The majestic sands of the kingdom will meet the land of milk and honey, the president of the United States will hold the legacy of brokering one of the greatest deals of the century, the Palestinians will feel left in and the chambers of people-to-people business will flourish over the radar. Getting there is a process, one in the making, of mostly quiet diplomacy.

Let’s take a look at some of the recent markers in understanding the political climate:

July 8, 2023: A team of Israeli video gamers landed in Saudi Arabia for the FIFAe Club World Cup.

August 18, 2023: MBS meets Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian to discuss future opportunities for cooperation. (Keep your enemies close and your options closer.)

September 9, 2023: President Joe Biden shakes hands with MBS at the G20 Summit, seemingly reversing the snub of the previous year.

September 20, 2023: Netanyahu meets President Biden at the United Nations (not the White House) to discuss expanding the Abraham Accords and normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

September 21, 2023: MBS chooses the conservative Fox News to announce that “every day we are closer to normalization with Israel.” This is the first time the de facto leader of the most prominent Arab country acknowledged Israel to the world. In speaking about the Palestinians, MBS said, “For us, the Palestinian issue is very important. We need to solve that part.” (One needs to understand how the Arab world speaks, what is said, word by word, and what isn’t stated. For example, MBS did not explicitly use the term “two-state solution.”)

And why not choose a left-leaning news network to make the announcement?

September 26, 2023: First Saudi Ambassador to Palestine Nayef al-Sudairi presents credentials to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. He references statements also made by Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan “regarding the importance of the Palestinian issue and its resolution on the basis of a two-state solution leading to the establishment of the State of Palestine.” (Note that the Saudi foreign minister and the kingdom’s ambassador did call for a two-state solution.)

September 26, 2023: Israeli Tourism Minister Haim Katz visits Saudi Arabia and attends a UN World Tourism Organization event there.

October 1, 2023: Israeli Communications Minister Shlomo Karhi attends a World Postal Union conference in Riyadh—the second Israeli official in a week to visit the kingdom.

October 1, 2023: An ancient Torah scroll is on display at a local book fair in Saudi Arabia.

(This exposure of historic Jewish religious existence is made public.)

Newspapers in predominately Sunni Saudi Arabia have been writing about Israel more frequently, both in English and Arabic. (These are trial balloons, first to the West, and only later to the host country.) What to look for: When Israelis begin to write in Saudi papers.

Despite the positive and negative signals, the message from the US to Palestinian President Abbas did not undermine the Saudi-Israel normalization talks. Abbas agrees with the understanding that both Netanyahu and President Biden realize the price for the ties is the two-state solution. Or is it? And in what manifestation? Here the trial balloons of words again come into play.

Abbas had lost out and has been left behind throughout the flourishing Abraham Accords. Watching the messages from Ramallah in weeks to come will be very telling.

Other crucial factors at bay include a strong Israeli military echelon that would not want to see Saudi Arabia receive weaponizable American nuclear technology. The Israeli opposition has gone on record backing this school of thought. This alone could obstruct the crowning moment.

Netanyahu’s right-wingers in the likes of National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich could block any Palestinian concessions and even go so far as derailing the government.

Then there are representatives on both sides of the aisle in the US Congress who may oppose normalization for various reasons, such as those who don’t want to see nuclear arms in the hands of the Saudis, those who disdain a Palestinian state and view Abbas as an antisemite who will never make peace with Israel, and those who will not favor anything short of a Palestinian state.

And don’t forget, standing front and center, the masters of public opinion: the pollsters, spin doctors, and public perceptions.

Equal among President Biden, Prime Minister Netanyahu, and President Abbas is the halo of legacy resting on their heads, which is propelling each leader for his own reasons to masterfully figure out the best road ahead, while reading their respective streets.

This possibility is in reach, the crown jewel of normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel, but the time is short, the chances come with high stakes, and for once, all parties need to make hard concessions they will stand by and pass on for their societies to embrace. Without it, normalization won’t stand the test of time. Even the driving force, a nuclear-capable Iran, may not be enough to leverage the reigning moment.

But if it does, the Saudis, too, will visit Al Aqsa, Israeli tourists will fill Neom, the Saudi planned mega-city, Israel will benefit from access to regional sources of oil, and high-tech business will flourish as Vision 2030 unfolds. The Palestinians will feel pride in a path toward statehood, land leveraged, and needed economic assistance. Israel’s doors will now be open to the Arab world and the broker, the United States, will bask in a foreign policy win that reshapes the Middle East and, hopefully, makes the entire region more secure.