What If Israel Had a Different Plan on October 7?
Consider if Israel, on October 8, took actions deemed unthinkable by some but justified as self-defense by others
The news on October 7 was shocking, marking the day as one of history’s boldest, bloodiest, and most scarring events, solidifying Hamas’ status as a leading terror organization.
The playbook mirrored the Yom Kippur War, when Israel was caught off-guard on a holiday by a surprise Egyptian assault on Sinai. Then, too, the Jewish state was not mobilized for the costly war that lay ahead.
During Simchat Torah of 2023, I reflected on Israel’s possible retaliation: its form and timeline. I believed then that Israel had one week to retaliate, turn Gaza upside down, and deliver a clear ultimatum to Hamas: Release all hostages within 24 hours or Gaza would be rubble. No nation could leave 1,145 citizens dead and 253 hostages in hostile territory, or the onslaught of thousands of rockets. No one!
Terrorist organizations, intent on destruction and indifferent to life, understand only the language of force. Nothing more, nothing less.
Six months on, Gaza lies in ruins, and Israel has eliminated numerous terrorists, striking a personal blow to Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh by killing three of his sons, alleged by Israel to have been en route to carry out a terror attack.
Yet, how can so many rockets still be reaching Israel after six months with only a quarter of the terror organization remaining active?
How are 129 hostages still languishing in those dark, cold, and dangerous mazes?
True, a massive city of tunnels has enabled the entire underground to continue to function and Israel knew full well that these tunnels existed. In 2004, our news agency was among the first to expose and document contraband flowing through Rafah from the Egyptian border into the Gaza Strip. Back then, many children were hired for minimal wages to construct the tunnels, and many died in the process. The debate over who enabled the financial and material support for these tunnels, now a nightmare for both Israeli and Gazan citizens, could continue indefinitely.
For 20 years, we’ve inquired of the IDF and the Israeli government regarding their knowledge of tunnel activities, following reports from border residents of digging sounds and other alarming noises. Their consistent response was that they had destroyed “all or most” of the tunnels.
The pressing question remains: Why was Israel unprepared for the imminent attack on October 7, and why weren’t the Israeli Defense Forces mobilized within hours? It’s not only mind-boggling but undermines citizens’ confidence in Israel’s military.
Israel faces a double standard, lacking the flexibility afforded to other nations. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict, a longstanding burden for both peoples and the international community, has led to a unique set of war rules, especially in this instance.
Israel has one week, I thought again! As grim as it sounds, the immediate aftermath of Hamas’ defining act was when Israel held global sympathy momentarily perhaps just long enough to complete with justification the actions now under scrutiny by an unforgiving international community.
Today, the world sees 1.5 million Gazans homeless, with shattered lives and tens of thousands dead. While the exact toll is contested, the loss of life is undeniable. War brings death, a human tragedy that cannot persist without severe repercussions, evident from university protests to UN deliberations and discussions in The Hague.
The world’s memory is short, and media support dwindles during prolonged conflicts, even when Israel’s actions might be justified.
If Hamas retains significant strength, tunnels remain, hostages are used as leverage, Israeli citizens feel unsafe, and the death toll rises on both sides, Israel must adopt a bold strategy to remind the world of the reasons for its initial retaliation.
Israel often assumes global perspectives align with its own. It’s the age-old marketing failure the country has never mastered despite all its remarkable innovation and military prowess.
In the coming weeks, Israel faces significant threats: foremost, an imminent Iranian attack in retaliation for the alleged assassination of a senior Revolutionary Guard officer in Damascus, a potentially devastating war with Hizbullah in Lebanon, and continued terrorist operations in the West Bank. Despite numerous raids in recent months, many have not become public, and only a few were reported in the media. The international context is also crucial, with Iran leveraging proxies like the Houthis to threaten key global trade routes, including the Strait of Hormuz.
As foreign governments and media weigh in, the United States, Israel’s most important ally, is under significant pressure to push Israel toward a cease-fire that could leave Israel vulnerable.
Many of the reasons lie in the votes President Joe Biden needs to win reelection. The BDS movement has effectively jeopardized his standing in crucial states, in what remains a close race against former President Donald Trump.
Time was not on Israel’s side on October 7 and is not now. We don’t know for certain how the world might have reacted to a bolder, speedier response on Israel’s part. While Israel had an opportunity then, the current situation is dire, with escalating losses overshadowing any gains.
Israel’s leadership, with all its available resources and capabilities, must find the vision to wrap up and bring closure to this very deadly game.
