A Closer Look at the ISIL Branch Responsible for the Moscow Attack: Why Russia, Why Now?
Former coordinator of the UN Security Council’s ISIL, al-Qaida, and Taliban Monitoring Team tells TML: “This is not over. It’s the beginning of the problem.”
Following Friday’s deadly terrorist attack in Moscow, and despite President Vladimir Putin’s allegation of a Ukrainian conspiracy, the Islamic State’s (IS) branch, Islamic State – Khorasan Province (ISIS-K), claimed responsibility. The group also released graphic footage of its members carrying out the attack in a show of strength to regain the world stage and help boost recruitment, funding, and support for the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).
On Friday evening, four gunmen stormed the Crocus City Hall, an entertainment hub on the outskirts of Moscow, where a rock concert was about to begin. The terrorists opened fire in the foyer before advancing into the concert hall. Russian officials reported that the individuals later used flammable liquid to set fire to the hall. The attack resulted in the loss of 137 lives and over 100 injured.
What Is ISIS-K?
Dr. Hans-Jakob Schindler, senior director of the Counter Extremism Project and former coordinator of the UN Security Council’s ISIL, al-Qaida and Taliban Monitoring Team, spoke to The Media Line and explained that ISIS-K is very different from all the other IS affiliates around the world.
He noted that all IS affiliates were pre-existing groups that, for the most part, were part of al-Qaida before switching sides and declaring their loyalty to ISIL. In contrast, he added, ISIS-K was established specifically from the ground up by its central command from Iraq and Syria.
At the end of 2014, IS sent a central group of Arabs to travel around Afghanistan and build up a new affiliate from scratch inside Afghanistan, as competition to the al-Qaida structures in Afghanistan
“At the end of 2014, IS sent a central group of Arabs to travel around Afghanistan and build up a new affiliate from scratch inside Afghanistan, as competition to the al-Qaida structures in Afghanistan,” Schindler noted, adding that ISIS-K is, therefore, the closest affiliate to the IS terrorist center that exists.
“The Afghanistan affiliate was always meant to be direct competition to the al-Qaida structures,” he continued, explaining that between 2015 and 2017, the new IS branch focused on attempting to conquer territory in Afghanistan, leading to the opposition of both the Afghan government and the Taliban. Later, the terrorist group transitioned to become a pure terrorist network structure of cells.
Once the Taliban took over Afghanistan, the new ISIS-K focused on domestic attacks to destabilize the Taliban. They conducted very high-profile attacks within Afghanistan, including hitting Kabul’s Foreign Ministry twice, the Pakistani Embassy, the Indian Embassy, the Russian Embassy, and a hotel with Chinese businessmen. Last week, ISIS-K conducted an attack at a bank in Kandahar, in southern Afghanistan, where the supreme leader of the Taliban sits. The group has also attempted to execute attacks outside of Afghanistan as well, in countries like Pakistan, Iran, Uzbekistan, Russia and Germany, where they have tried six times, Schindler explained.
Sooner or later, they were going to be successful somewhere outside Afghanistan, and they were in Moscow
“Sooner or later, they were going to be successful somewhere outside Afghanistan, and they were in Moscow,” he said.
Why Russia?
According to Schindler, in every country where there is an IS branch, they are actively fighting Russia on the ground. “In Syria, the Russians supported Assad; in Afghanistan, they [the Russians] are now the big allies of the Taliban. In Africa, wherever there is an IS branch, there is the [Russian-backed] Waagner group, now renamed the Africa Corps, opposing them,” he explained.
Dr. Ramu C.M. a senior geopolitical analyst at APAC Assistance, Singapore, told The Media Line that Salafi jihadists have long viewed Russia as an adversary. “ISIS-K accuses Russia of atrocities against Muslims, notably referencing the Soviet-Afghan War’s enduring legacy and Moscow’s current dealings with the Taliban,” he said.
C.M. also noted that “the Russian military’s harsh methods in the Chechen wars and its devastating counterinsurgency operations in the North Caucasus have deeply entrenched animosity toward Russia.”
The Aim of the Moscow Attack
Schindler said the main goal of the recent Moscow attack was propaganda. He noted that the situation in Gaza and the Hamas attack against Israel have given center stage to other terrorist organizations such as Hamas, Hizbullah, and the Houthis. As such, “no one had talked about al-Qaida and the Islamic State in a long time,” he said.
“They are terrorist organizations that need supporters, money, sympathizers, and structures. Terrorism doesn’t work when no one talks about you,” Schindler added, noting the importance of being in global news headlines.
According to C.M., the high-profile attacks or the threat thereof in countries like Russia, with a strong security and intelligence apparatus, serve as powerful propaganda tools for IS. “Some Western intelligence agencies have expressed concern about how IS has sought to exploit Russia’s war in Ukraine to recruit new members and raise money,” he added.
Why Is Putin Blaming Ukraine?
“This was a catastrophic failure of the Russian security forces. This is Moscow, not some province. … Hundreds of people died or were injured. Four terrorists with arms, essentially walk in and start killing everyone,” Schindler said. He further noted that the attack happened just days after President Putin said in his speech that the American warnings about a potential terrorist attack in Moscow were blackmail.
This was a catastrophic failure of the Russian security forces. This is Moscow, not some province. … Hundreds of people died or were injured. Four terrorists with arms, essentially walk in and start killing everyone,
“President Putin badly misjudged the situation. Its security services are so focused on Ukraine that they were not able to send a couple of policemen to the concert for an hour after the shooting started,” he continued.
What’s Next?
Schindler believes that the issue is far from over. “Just because a terrorist cell is arrested, or a terrorist cell has conducted a successful attack, doesn’t mean that the problem is over. It’s the beginning of the problem,” he cautioned.
He noted that such a spectacular attack does wonders for terrorist groups in terms of recruitment and collecting donations.
“Look at the number of attacks we had, and the amount of cells that we have arrested in Germany, France, and the Netherlands, in the last couple of years and even in the last couple of months,” Schindler said, warning European countries to be careful of further attacks.
“Clearly, Europe is still in the crosshairs here,” Schindler continued, noting that the security forces must be extremely attentive during the upcoming Paris Olympics and the European Football Championship in Germany.
