‘A Heavy Strategic Blow’: Reactions to Raisi’s Death

The death of Ebrahim Raisi has sparked mixed reactions and raised questions about Iran's future leadership

The death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian in a helicopter crash on Sunday raised many questions about whether it was an assassination or an accident. It also raised questions about the most prominent candidate to succeed Raisi and whether Iran’s policy will change domestically and internationally.

From the moment Raisi’s death was announced, all Arab countries, including the Gulf states, extended condolences to Iran, even those with disputes or no diplomatic relations with it.

Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran’s former foreign minister, accused the United States of being responsible for Raisi’s death, “because of the sanctions imposed on Iran, preventing it from importing aircraft or their spare parts, which caused the helicopter that the president was riding to be of insufficient performance.”

Maryam Rajavi, the most prominent Iranian opposition figure, said on her X account, “The death of Ibrahim Raisi, the head of the mullahs’ regime, is a heavy strategic blow that cannot be compensated for by Khamenei and the entire system of executions and massacres. A series of crises is affecting the entire religious tyranny.”

These crises, she said, are causing the rebels to be more open in their demands that tyrants be prosecuted for shedding the people’s blood. “The curse of mothers, …the curse of the people, and the history of Iran haunts Ibrahim Raisi, the murderer behind the infamous massacre of political prisoners in 1988.”

Raisi’s death sparked mixed reactions in some Arab capitals and inside Iran. Recently video footage showed people in several Syrian regions distributing sweets to celebrate Raisi’s death. Those who filmed the events said that the deaths in the crash are the fate of those responsible for the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Syrians.

Other video clips from several Yemeni and Palestinian cities also showed the distribution of sweets in celebration of Raisi’s death. In Iraq, however, clashes occurred in several areas between people celebrating Raisi’s death and members of Iranian-backed Shiite militias, as shown in the footage.

In Iran, reactions to Raisi’s death varied. Several citizens in the Ahwaz and Balochistan provinces celebrated, according to media and activists’ reports, while Iranian television footage showed citizens in other provinces mourning his death.

Following Raisi’s death, the Iranian government issued a statement through the official Fars Agency, confirming it would continue to conduct business without disruption. Ali Bagheri Kani, the chief negotiator in the nuclear file, was appointed minister of foreign affairs.

According to the Iranian Constitution, First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber was assigned to head the executive authority and prepare for presidential elections within 50 days.

Iranian newspapers identified several potential successors to Raisi, including former presidents Hassan Rouhani and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad; Ali Larijani, who previously served as speaker of the Islamic Consultative Assembly (Iran’s parliament); and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the current speaker of the parliament.

The elections for a new president will be held just months after the parliamentary elections in Iran last March when, according to Iranian authorities, the participation rate ranged from 8% to 12%.

Raisi’s death would be a relief to many who were killed because of his death sentences, and thousands of mothers rejoiced in his death

Maria Mahmoud, an Iranian dissident residing abroad, told The Media Line, “Raisi’s death would be a relief to many who were killed because of his death sentences, and thousands of mothers rejoiced in his death.”

However, she added, “Nothing will change even after the death of the president. Every president since the Iranian Revolution implements the policy of the Iranian supreme leader. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is the actual controller of the country. This is not secret information; the Iranian constitution says that the supreme leader is assigned the highest authority in the country. There will be no change.”

Nothing will change even after the death of the president. Every president since the Iranian Revolution implements the policy of the Iranian supreme leader.

Ali Hashemi, an Iranian journalist specializing in political affairs, similarly told The Media Line, “The death of President Raisi is a huge event in Iran, but the state has a constitution and has laws that govern it, and the institutions in it are strong and solid. They will not be affected; things will proceed normally.”

“Some will try to exploit Raisi’s death to cause riots or other events,” he added, “but the army is present, the Revolutionary Guard is present, the security forces are present, and they will all stand together to preserve the security and stability of Iran.”

Hashemi continued, “The constitution is also clear about the process of transferring power. There will be elections, and the people will choose who they want. There are many political candidates, some of whom are former presidents, and some of whom are in other positions. Iran has many leaders who can protect the country.”

The death of President Raisi is a huge event in Iran, but the state has a constitution and has laws that govern it, and the institutions in it are strong and solid

Questioned about Iran’s foreign policy, Hashemi said, “Again, Iran is a state of institutions. The openness that occurred recently towards some of our Arab neighbors will continue. Those steps are planned by the ministries of state according to the best interests of the country.”

Hashemi also added, “We expect many presidents and leaders to attend the funeral of President Raisi, and it will be a great funeral, given Iran’s strong international presence and active role.”

However, Awash Mehrdad, a former professor of international relations, suggested that there are concerns under the surface. He told The Media Line, “Ibrahim Raisi was playing a pivotal role in suppressing opponents of the regime, creating death, and spreading terror in Iran. The authorities feel that this incident, whatever its background, has dealt the country a major blow.”

“The large popular celebrations in Iran after Raisi’s death are a message from the people, Mehrdad added. “Their message is, they have gotten rid of one of the symbols of death, and their joy would be greater if the dead person were Khamenei.”

But Shahbaz Bagheri, a former political science professor, told The Media Line, “Iranian politics is fixed and will not change with the passage of time. The next president will follow the same system. We should not be too optimistic about the next president.”

He continued, “Even internal politics will not change. No one will come to fix the situation. The situation is deteriorating and getting worse.”