After Defeating Hezbollah, Will Israel Pivot Back to Gaza or Declare Victory?
Despite Israeli gains, concerns over hostages and lingering threats from Hamas leave victory in Gaza unclear
In June, Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesperson Daniel Hagari stated that wiping out Hamas was impossible. Four months later, with Israeli forces positioned on the northern border and inside Lebanon, the IDF now claims it is nearing that goal in Gaza.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared at the United Nations, “We are winning.”
But is Israel truly winning against Hamas?
We’ve been fighting Hezbollah for two weeks—where is Hamas in all of this? They’ve become irrelevant.
“Two months ago, when [Hamas leader Ismail] Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran, did you ask, ‘How will Hamas in Gaza react?’” former national security adviser Yaakov Amidror told The Media Line. “[Hezbollah leader Hassan] Nasrallah was killed. Did you wonder how Hamas would respond? We’ve been fighting Hezbollah for two weeks—where is Hamas in all of this? They’ve become irrelevant.”
Former Israeli national security adviser Yaakov Amidror. (Courtesy)
Amidror, who is also a researcher at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, claims that Hamas’ military capabilities have been significantly weakened. On October 7, over 3,000 Hamas fighters, along with other terrorists and civilians, invaded Israel, killing 1,200 people and taking more than 250 hostages. Now, however, Hamas has been reduced to disorganized guerrilla fighters. They can still launch short-range rockets sporadically and occasionally use RPGs to kill a few soldiers, but their overall capacity has been greatly diminished.
Hamas does not have the ability to smuggle weapons into Gaza from Egypt
“Hamas does not have the ability to smuggle weapons into Gaza from Egypt,” Amidror said. “They do not have intelligence capabilities.”
Former Deputy IDF Chief of Staff Matan Vilnai told The Media Line that the IDF can now move freely across Gaza’s 363 square kilometers. Troops use lightweight vehicles instead of armored tanks or carriers, facing minimal resistance.
Former Deputy IDF Chief of Staff Matan Vilnai, Dec. 17, 2008. (Mordechai Lesser/Creative Commons)
“The soldiers can go wherever they want now,” Vilnai said, adding that this “was definitely not possible” before the war.
By August, the IDF reported over 17,000 Hamas operatives had been killed since the war began. Initially, Hamas had an estimated 30,000 to 40,000 fighters across 24 battalions. Despite heavy losses, the IDF noted that even when battalions are defeated, they reemerge, albeit with reduced numbers and new recruits. The exact number of active fighters remains unclear.
Amidror estimates that around 10,000 lightly armed fighters remain, but Hamas’ 17- and 18-year-old recruits are poorly trained and lack military capabilities.
The IDF has scaled back its presence in Gaza, concentrating on two key areas: the Netzarim corridor in the north and the Philadelphi corridor in the south, which connects Gaza to Sinai. The military conducts occasional raids and withdrawals in Rafah and Khan Yunis.
Only two battalions remain in Gaza: 162 and 252, each with several thousand troops.
However, Vilnai stressed that despite these successes, Israel has not yet achieved victory.
“Even if we kill [Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar]—and I think this will happen if it hasn’t already—if the hostages do not return home, there is no winning,” he said.
Rumors have resurfaced that Israel may have eliminated Sinwar, who leads Hamas’ political apparatus, though the IDF has not confirmed his death.
Seth Frantzman, author of the recently released book The October 7 War, shared similar views.
Seth Frantzman, author of the recently released book The October 7 War. (Courtesy)
“If Hamas were truly defeated, we would go street by street in Gaza without concern for their capabilities and find the hostages,” Frantzman, who is also a senior contributing editor at The Jerusalem Post, told The Media Line. “Clearly, Hamas still controls parts of Gaza. They may have lost some of their weaponry, but they still have many armed fighters and maintain significant control.”
Sarit Zehavi, founder and president of the Alma Research and Education Center, told The Media Line that some areas in Gaza are off-limits to the IDF due to the belief that hostages are being held there. The policy is to avoid these areas, as approaching them could put the hostages at risk of being killed.
A report from Israel’s N12 earlier this week stated that the IDF had located Sinwar but chose not to assassinate him, as he was with hostages, and killing him would have also killed them.
Israel succeeded in assassinating Nasrallah and executing an effective military campaign in the north because it has far better intelligence on Lebanon than Gaza, Amidror explained. He emphasized that intelligence is crucial for operations like hostage rescues and noted that Israel has focused on Hezbollah over the past two decades.
“It’s two sides of the same coin: When one is empty, the other is full, and vice versa. We don’t have enough resources to prioritize everything, everywhere. We had excellent intelligence in the north and less so in the south,” he said.
According to the former major general, this was not a mistake. The mistake was not being prepared to face Hamas on the morning of October 7.
“In principle, Hezbollah was much stronger,” Amidror added. “Their firepower was 15 times greater than what Hamas had.”
Frantzman suggested that once Israel completes its mission against Hezbollah and allows the 65,000 displaced northern residents to return home, the focus will shift back to Gaza. He outlined three possible scenarios:
First, if Israel defeats Hezbollah in the coming weeks or months, Iran may feel weakened and pressure Hamas into accepting a cease-fire–for–hostages deal, potentially ending the war.
Second, Israel’s far-right government may insist on a similar victory in Gaza and continue rejecting deals. Without a replacement for Hamas, the conflict could drag on with sporadic fighting for another year or more.
Finally, the third option is to replace Hamas with a new governing body, enabling Israel to conduct security missions in and out of Gaza as needed, similar to its operations in Areas A and B of the West Bank.
Experts agree that Israel cannot leave Gaza to recover or let Hamas believe it has won.
If Hamas survives and Sinwar continues to control Gaza after the IDF withdraws, he has won
“For the terrorist organization, survival is enough,” Zehavi said. “If Hamas survives and Sinwar continues to control Gaza after the IDF withdraws, he has won.”
She said that if this happens, Hamas could recover in a few years, putting Israel back at square one.
“We face the same questions in the north: How long will any victory last, and how much can we rebuild northern and southern Israel if we achieve some military success?” Zehavi said.
She emphasized that the challenge in Gaza is creating an alternative to Hamas, while in Lebanon, the priority is involving the international community in disarming Hezbollah.
Amidror agreed, adding that once Israel eliminates Sinwar, Hamas’ only leverage will be the hostages.
“That’s why we need to secure their release,” he said. “It’s not just a moral imperative, but the only way to fully accomplish our mission of destroying Hamas.”
