After Outing Meeting With Libyan Minister, Israel Risks Other Normalization Efforts
As well as sparking violent protests in Libya and causing the Libyan foreign minister to be suspended and to flee to Turkey, the incident compromises moves to reach agreements with other countries, foremost among them Saudi Arabia
This week’s incident that resulted in the suspension and flight of the Libyan foreign minister after news broke that she had met with her Israeli counterpart could have implications for Israel’s attempts to normalize relations with other Arab countries, with Saudi Arabia at the forefront.
Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen announced on Sunday that he had secretly met with Libyan Foreign Minister Najla El Mangoush in Rome last week in the first diplomatic meeting between the countries.
The announcement immediately caused an uproar in Libya, which does not recognize Israel and is a staunch supporter of the Palestinian cause. A 1957 Libyan law makes it illegal to normalize relations with Israel.
Violent protests erupted overnight in western Libyan cities and Mangoush was suspended the following day and referred for investigation. However, by the time news of the meeting broke, she had already fled to Turkey. The Libyan state security service denied having facilitated her flight.
The Israelis rushed to make this public, without thinking about the implications
In Israel, Cohen was sharply criticized for publicizing the meeting. Israeli media also reported that the United States was angry, as the blunder would make efforts to normalize relations between Israel and other countries much more difficult.
“The Israelis rushed to make this public, without thinking about the implications,” Dr. Yoel Guzansky, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies, told The Media Line.
“This has happened before and will probably happen again. This causes damage. Countries that currently have unofficial, quiet relations with Israel will be wary of continuing. They will worry about leaks and about their interests being damaged,” he said.
Israeli media also reported that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had ordered his cabinet ministers to obtain his approval in advance for any future clandestine meetings and their publication, in an apparent attempt to avoid further similar incidents.
Netanyahu is in the midst of attempts to normalize relations with Saudi Arabia, a key foreign policy goal that he set in his last election campaign.
“The Saudi leadership will now have to factor in even more the sensitivity of the Palestinian issue amongst its public,” said Michael Harari, a former senior Israeli diplomat and policy fellow at Mitvim, the Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies.
“It is true that the Saudis are looking for concessions from the Americans, but they will have to carefully consider the Palestinian cause,” he said.
In 2020, Israel signed the Abraham Accords, normalizing relations with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco, and hoping that other countries would follow. The Abraham Accords were a departure from the decades-long paradigm holding that Israel could not make diplomatic progress with Arab countries until it resolved its conflict with the Palestinians.
The meeting between Mangoush and Cohen was defined in Israel as the “first step in relations between Israel and Libya.”
Israel is looking for such achievements and it is clear it wanted to boast about it
“We are working with a number of countries in the Middle East, Africa, and Asia in order to widen the circle of peace and normalization with Israel,” the Israeli Foreign Ministry said in its statement released on Sunday. Just a day later, despite its being the source of the initial announcement, the Foreign Ministry denied leaking word of the meeting.
“Israel is looking for such achievements and it is clear it wanted to boast about it,” Harari told The Media Line. “While that is legitimate, it was unwise and exaggerated to go public at this point. Such behavior increases the doubt about Israel’s credibility when it comes to conducting discreet negotiations.”
In recent months, there has been increased talk of possible normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Over the years, Israel and Saudi Arabia have been growing increasingly closer, motivated by mutual concerns over Iran, but have kept their cooperation under the radar.
Israel has also been eyeing ties with Libya, Somalia, and Sudan, and has already made some headway.
“All the countries Israel is looking to normalize relations with right now, aside from Saudi Arabia and Indonesia, are failing countries in the midst of severe civil strife,” Guzansky said.
The current Israeli government is considered its most right-wing ever, making it even more challenging to promote normalization with Arab and Muslim countries. In addition, Israel is in internal political turmoil, as the government pushes forward with a contentious judicial reform that has divided the country. International criticisms of the reforms and the government’s policies towards the Palestinians have harmed Israel’s status internationally and made it less attractive for potential partners in the region.
Netanyahu has been vocal on the possibility of normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia, in an attempt to deflect criticism that his internal policies have been harming Israel’s international standing. Such a move will depend heavily on Israel’s relations with the US, currently at one of its lowest points.
Israel is so eager for an agreement, it might turn a blind eye to any number of Saudi demands, including advanced weapons
“There is a lot of chatter on Saudi Arabia, and this is not a good thing,” Guzansky said. “It is damaging because it raises the price of such an agreement. Saudi Arabia will play hard to get and there will be a substantial price to pay. Israel is so eager for an agreement, it might turn a blind eye to any number of Saudi demands, including advanced weapons.”
Accepting Saudi Arabia having a nuclear civilian program may be one uncomfortable concession Israel would make in exchange for relations, but it could also pave the way for other countries in the region to aspire to similar abilities, something likely to be problematic for Israel.
But an even more difficult pill for Israel to swallow may be Saudi Arabia’s championing of the Palestinian cause.
“There is an impression that Israel is willing to make concessions on a civilian nuclear program, as long as it doesn’t have to make concessions on the Palestinian issue,” Harari said.
On Monday, Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich told Army Radio that he would not allow for any concessions to the Palestinians as part of any normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia. Smotrich is a senior member of the coalition, and his support is critical for the survival of the Netanyahu government.
“It will have to be a different coalition if Israel wants to move forward with normalizing relations,” Guzansky said. “There is a whole spectrum of requests the Saudis can make on the Palestinian issue.”
For years, Netanyahu has marginalized the Palestinian issue. The signing of the Abraham Accords was enabled in part by the decline of the importance of the Palestinian issue in the eyes of many Arab countries.
“Paradoxically, the main issue for Israel when discussing an agreement with Saudi Arabia will be the Palestinian issue,” Harari said. “The latest incident with Libya highlights the price that might be paid for such an agreement and the weight of the Palestinian issue on the decision-making process.”
