All or Nothing: As the US and Iran Prepare for Talks, Israel Signals Time for Action
While US negotiators hope to rein in Iran’s nuclear program, Israel sees an opening for decisive action—and a closing window for talk
“I want Iran to be a wonderful, great, happy country,” President Donald Trump told reporters on Friday, one day before talks between the US and Iran were set to begin. “But they can’t have a nuclear weapon.”
That statement came days after President Trump warned that the US would resort to military force if the talks fail, saying that Iran “would face great danger” in such a scenario. “Israel will obviously be very much involved in that, it’ll be the leader of that,” Trump said of a potential strike on Iran, leaving no doubt as to Washington’s expectations.
As diplomatic moves between the US and Iran quietly unfold, Israel is watching with deep concern. The US’s closest ally in the Middle East is calculating risks and considering the prospect that once again, it may have to act alone to combat Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
Earlier this week, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that a diplomatic solution to the Iran issue is possible—but only in a scenario where Iran agrees for the US to destroy the components of its nuclear program. If Iran chooses to drag out talks, Netanyahu said, “the option is military.”
In a notable show of force, the Trump administration has stationed B-2 stealth bombers at Diego Garcia, a remote US base in the Indian Ocean far beyond the range of most Iranian missiles. That move underscores Washington’s readiness to strike if talks collapse and signals to Tehran that military options remain firmly on the table, which may offer Israel some reassurance.
Iran claims it could target the base, but military analysts point out that Diego Garcia is over 3,000 miles from Iranian territory, well beyond the reach of Iran’s precision missiles. In contrast, US long-range bombers stationed there can easily strike deep inside Iran.
This high-stakes posturing plays out as both sides prepare for a pivotal meeting for nuclear talks in Oman today. According to Farzin Nadimi, an expert on Iran at The Washington Institute, neither side believes the negotiations will go smoothly. “It will begin on shaky grounds and will probably end on shaky grounds—unless an unexpected major proposal or concession is put on the table, which I find unlikely,” Nadimi told The Media Line.
With President Trump’s close circle laying the groundwork for renewed diplomacy, the administration is pushing for a decisive confrontation or a quick resolution.
Andreas Krieg, a Middle East expert teaching at King’s College London, described an administration divided between hawks and pragmatists, with some figures determined to pursue a resolution. Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff and Vice President JD Vance are the top figures interested in making a deal with Iran, Krieg said.
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“They want a verification regime that caps enrichment and prevents nuclear weaponization,” he told The Media Line. “But if the deal demands that Iran abandon its missile program or pull back from its regional alliances, Iran will walk away.”
Meanwhile, in Israel, pressure is building. Dan Diker, president of the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, said that Israel believes the time has come for action. Especially after Iran carried out a series of direct strikes on Israel in 2024, “Israel sees no more room for negotiating,” Diker told The Media Line.
The current diplomatic moment with the Islamic Republic of Iran is a continuation of its long-standing deception warfare. The Iranians are all too happy to drive a wedge between Israel and the United States, just as they did with the Obama administration.
“The current diplomatic moment with the Islamic Republic of Iran is a continuation of its long-standing deception warfare,” Diker said. “The Iranians are all too happy to drive a wedge between Israel and the United States, just as they did with the Obama administration.”
Israelis are deeply skeptical that diplomacy can succeed, particularly if the outcome resembles the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. Danny Citrinowicz, a research fellow at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies’ Iran Program, said that Israel could find itself boxed in unless a new agreement significantly dismantles Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.
“If the deal just limits enrichment and allows inspections, but doesn’t dismantle the program or curb missile development, Israel may be unable to respond without undermining its ties to the US,” Citrinowicz told The Media Line.
There is still significant danger ahead, and Israel is prepared to eliminate the Iranian nuclear threat with direct military action at the right time.
According to Diker, Iran has played its hand. “There is still significant danger ahead, and Israel is prepared to eliminate the Iranian nuclear threat with direct military action at the right time,” he said. He described Iran’s current position as “exposed” and “naked,” noting that proxies like Hezbollah and Syria have been significantly weakened.
“This is an opportunity for the US to dictate terms to Iran, in contrast to 2015, when it was more of a surface-level negotiation,” Diker said.
The US’s long-term objectives remain unclear, Diker added. “What we do know is that the Trump administration is firmly committed to its stated position: that the Iranian regime will not acquire a nuclear weapon,” he said, characterizing Iran as a “fascist, Islamic, extremist, messianic death cult.”
Back in Washington, the debate continues. Citrinowicz said that if the US overreaches, demanding full dismantlement or curbing proxy activity, Iran would likely risk an attack rather than concede. “We’re entering a crunch moment in US-Iran relations, and potentially for Israel as well,” he said.
The red line has moved. The administration is acting on the belief that Iran could already be near the bomb.
He added that, unlike past administrations, the Trump team considers Iran a threat now, not at some future “last resort” point. “The red line has moved,” he said. “The administration is acting on the belief that Iran could already be near the bomb.”
In Nadimi’s estimation, the next few months will probably not bring war, nor will they bring a comprehensive deal. Even if negotiations fail, Iran will continue to enrich uranium, while Israel will prepare for other eventualities, he said, adding that a temporary enrichment freeze in exchange for limited sanctions relief might be the most realistic interim step.
What remains clear is that a fragile window of diplomacy is now open, just as the clouds of war loom largest. “We’re at a crossroads,” Citrinowicz said. “And both paths carry enormous risks.”
