Analysis: From the Calamity of the Gaza War to a Peaceful Middle East
The shocking Hamas attack on October 7 and the calamity in Gaza can be the best catalyst to push both sides toward a historical and genuine rapprochement that ends the conflict and leaves all the pain behind
Wars can start for simple reasons. Take the “Fan Affair,” for example. On April 29, 1827, the French consul-general, Pierre Deval, was hit with a fan by Hussein Dey, the Dey of Algiers. This incident triggered a conflict in which France occupied Algeria in 1830 for 132 years, only leaving in 1962, when Algeria officially announced its independence.
If the French and the Algerians could make peace, so can Israelis and Palestinians. Conditions are more than ripe for both sides to end the Arab-Israeli conflict by moving toward a comprehensive peace settlement based on a two-state solution along the 1967 lines.
In November 1977, the late Egyptian president, Anwar Sadat, told Israel’s Knesset, “The October War should be the last war.” Allowing myself to dream, I expect countries around the world to merge their efforts and make the current Gaza war the region’s last. The opportunity exists.
The shocking Hamas attack on October 7 for Israelis and the subsequent calamity that has hit the 2.2 million Palestinians in the Gaza Strip can be the best catalyst to push both sides toward a historical and genuine rapprochement that ends the conflict and leaves all the pain behind.
While the US administration has long managed the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, it has never tried to move into a solution paradigm. For years, the US administration turned a blind eye to Israel’s breaches of the Oslo Accords. It watched as Israel continued its settlement activities and construction in the Occupied Territories or by took various unilateral measures on the ground that jeopardized any future chance of reaching a final status agreement with the Palestinians.
One element that has remained absent in all peace-making efforts is recognition of Israel’s total negligence of international law and the unlimited support it has received from Washington to continue its policies. Israel has always gotten away with its actions as long as the American “big brother” has been there to defend it.
Sixty days have already passed, and the war in the Gaza Strip seems far from over. Israel is deploying more ground troops all over the territory. At the same time, its airstrikes continue to target populated areas throughout the enclave, bringing the death toll among Palestinian civilians to over 20,000, with no less than 45,000 wounded.
There are reports from Gaza that some 5,000 bodies are still under the rubble with no means or time to pull them out. Local estimates stated that more than 50% of the buildings in Gaza have been extensively damaged or fully leveled.
Israel and Hamas are trapped in a war that shows no signs of ending soon. Tough US pressure to expedite the process of moving beyond war and into a political settlement is the only way to put an end to the vicious cycle of violence, wars, destruction, and death.
Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas has said clearly that he won’t return to Gaza on an Israeli tank, a euphemism for having his return backed by the Israeli army. The Palestinian leadership’s stance has not changed since Hamas took control of the Gaza Strip in its ruthless and bloody coup against the PA back in June 2007.
Only a comprehensive settlement can bring the Gaza Strip back under Palestinian legitimacy, i.e., the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), the sole legitimate representative of the Palestinian people.
I was shocked to hear Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu say that after the war in Gaza ends, President Abbas cannot take over Gaza. I wonder what future Netanyahu envisages for postwar Gaza.
I also wonder if he will remain as Israel’s prime minister after the war. Any commission of inquiry will certainly send him home. The court where Netanyahu stands trial for corruption charges may even send him to jail before the commission finishes its inquiry into the events of October 7 and the failure of the political, intelligence, and military echelons to predict and contain the attack.
A comprehensive political settlement that safeguards the creation of an independent State of Palestine alongside Israel on the 1967 lines is the only chance for Israel to rid itself of the Gaza headache. It would also solve the complexities of merging between its status as an occupying power and a country that proclaims to be the Middle East’s only oasis of democracy.
Ending the Gaza war while incorporating an international political initiative to solve the Arab-Israeli conflict based on a two-state solution is the best all sides can get. True, subversive elements will exist on both sides. However, sane leaders in Israel and Palestine must maintain calm and quiet and sustain their peaceful ties for good.
There are those in Israel who still argue that despite leaving Gaza unilaterally in 2005, all they got in return were rockets and missiles fired on their towns from Gaza. This is their alibi for not moving one step out of the occupied West Bank.
Let us be clear on this point: Israel unilaterally pulled out of Gaza without any political agreement with the PLO. An agreed two-state solution that answers Israel’s needs for peace and security and meets the national aspirations of the Palestinian people is the best guarantor of peace between the two sides.
Any hostile elements that try to disrupt the new peace reality must face an iron fist from the relevant security services. As a Palestinian, I can say with 100% certainty that we will strictly stop any subversive element whose acts might provide Israel with an excuse to destroy a seven-decade-long dream finally coming true.
The pervasive rhetoric that Hamas and its spokesmen use in justifying the October 7 attack is no longer convincing. The euphoria that the Palestinians demonstrated immediately after the October 7 attack soon disappeared, replaced by nonstop images and videos of bodies and devastation throughout the Gaza Strip. Frankly, Israel’s ruthless airstrikes on Gaza changed Palestinians’ collective mood into hatred of Israel and discontent against Hamas.
The tough events that happened on October 7 will not disappear from Israel’s collective memory. Hamas was shocked at the magnitude of its “success” of storming Israel’s borders and taking over a few southern towns.
Hamas’ track record shows that it scored despite never expecting any success. This also happened in 2006, when it won the legislative elections in the Palestinian territories, and a year later when it hijacked and took control of the Gaza Strip.
At that time, Hamas’ then-political bureau head, Khaled Mashal, said that they had made a big mistake believing they could replace Fatah and build their own regime. Hamas soon discovered that this wasn’t the case at all.
However, Hamas’ uncalculated steps or moves have only sown public discontent.
One middle-aged man from Gaza, who was among thousands of Palestinian workers in Israel to be transferred to the West Bank following the October 7 attacks, had many comments regarding Hamas, its local leader Yahya Sinwar, and its military spokesman, Abu Obaida.
“I don’t care about what Abu Obaida says. I don’t care about how many Israeli soldiers he killed or APCs he destroyed. I need to know what preparations Hamas made to provide shelter to innocent civilians. I want to know if Hamas prepared the hospitals, and stockpiled food and drinking water. You can’t go to war without providing minimal services in those fields.”
His words came a few days after Hamas political bureau member Mousa Abu Marzouk said in a televised interview that Hamas built underground tunnels in Gaza for its fighters and leaders. When asked about Palestinian civilians, he replied that civilians are the responsibility of the UNRWA.
This ruthless stance that ignores the safety of the Palestinian people has pushed the public’s wrath against Hamas to the highest level in years. As such, postwar Hamas will be different from prewar Hamas.
Elias Zananiri is a former journalist from East Jerusalem who has filled several senior positions in the PLO over the past two decades.
