As Iran’s Uranium Enrichment Progresses, Israel Contemplates Future Steps
Tehran’s steady increase in its levels of uranium enrichment seems designed to grab the West’s attention and to be used by Iran as leverage for nuclear negotiations
Iran’s recent acknowledgment that it has enriched uranium to 84% purity is cause for alarm throughout the world, experts say. This is especially true for Israel, which defines the Iranian nuclear program as its greatest threat.
The international community has been trying to contain Iran’s nuclear program for years. While Iran has maintained that it wants nuclear power for peaceful purposes, its statements continue to be treated with suspicion. Belligerent behavior by Iran in the Middle East has not helped in building confidence throughout the international community.
Iran has been negotiating about curtailing its nuclear program with world powers since 2013. In 2015, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), a nuclear deal that withdraws sanctions against Iran in exchange for limits on its nuclear program, was signed. The United States’ withdrawal from the pact in 2018 under then-President Donald Trump essentially nullified it. President Joe Biden began negotiations to revitalize the deal in 2021. Despite several reports since then that a deal was close to being inked, the gap between the sides remains unbridgeable.
The latest announcement by Iran regarding its enrichment capabilities seems to have further increased that gap.
“Tehran’s steady higher and higher enrichment has been aimed to get the attention of the West and turn it into leverage for negotiations,” according to Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute in Washington.
Negotiations toward a new deal have been progressing slowly, often reaching an impasse, but remaining almost comatose.
Iran just hasn’t made the decision yet; it is playing with matches but hasn’t lit the fire just yet. The West knows that Iran will not develop a nuclear weapon tomorrow and Iran knows that the West will not be attacking any time soon.
Israel, which sees Iran as its archenemy, has been eyeing the recent developments with growing concern.
Over the weekend, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant spoke to his American counterpart, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin. Iran was on top of the agenda.
“Gallant expressed his concern regarding Iran’s continued nuclear enrichment and emphasized the importance of preventing a nuclear Iran,” read a statement from Israel’s Defense Ministry.
“Both sides are trying to buy more time,” explained Dr. Yoel Guzansky, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) and former member of Israel’s National Security Council. “Iran is solidifying its position on the cusp of nuclear capability, accumulating more abilities and knowledge while fortifying the defense of its nuclear sites.”
“At the same time, Israel is working on improving its offensive capabilities,” Guzansky added.
International developments have had a direct impact on the talks. The Russia-Ukraine war and the global economic crisis have held the attention of the international community elsewhere. Iran has grown closer to Russia since the beginning of the war, supplying it with drones that are used to attack Ukraine that have decreased the appetite of Western powers to negotiate with it on a deal.
“There is an overload of challenges in the international arena,” said Guzansky.
Popular protests against the Iranian regime – sparked by the death in September of 22-year-old Kurdish Iranian woman Masha Amini while in the custody of the Islamic Republic’s morality police for wearing her hijab incorrectly – that were dealt with violently and subject to international condemnation also have put the world in a tricky position. Making concessions to Iran now could be seen as unacceptable.
For Iran, brinksmanship seems to be the aim. For Israel, containment may be a more realistic goal than destruction of the Iranian nuclear program. Iran’s nuclear facilities are scattered across the large Islamic Republic and Israel does not possess the ability to carry out such a complex airstrike so far away from its home bases.
“Israel lacks the ability, but has the will. On the other hand, the US can rid the world of the Iranian nuclear program within a matter of hours,” Guzansky said.
Last week, the Israeli government’s Cabinet approved the defense budget for the coming two years.
“We are ensuring the continued strengthening and equipping against Iran and other enemies over the coming years. This is of supreme national importance,” Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu said after the announcement.
Last week, Israel’s Channel 12 news reported that Netanyahu held several meetings with top defense officials to discuss possible military action against Iranian nuclear facilities.
The enrichment of uranium by Iran to 84% purity puts it closer than ever to military-grade of 90% purity. For Israel, it is a race against time. For Iran, with attention focused elsewhere, this could be an attempt to improve its position in nuclear negotiations.
“It is another muscle Iran is trying to flex,” said Dr. Menahem Merhavy, a research fellow and expert on Iran at the Harry S. Truman Institute for the Advancement of Peace at The Hebrew University of Jerusalem. “They want to say they can reach nuclear capability if they want to and telling the world that while it has been trying to prevent Iran from doing so, it has largely failed.”
On Sunday, head of the US Central Intelligence Agency William Burns, confirmed just that.
“We don’t believe … Iran has yet made the decision to resume the weaponization program,” Burns told CBS. “They’ve advanced very far to the point where it would only be a matter of weeks before they can enrich to 90% if they choose to cross that line.”
“Iran just hasn’t made the decision yet; it is playing with matches but hasn’t lit the fire just yet,” said Merhavy. “The West knows that Iran will not develop a nuclear weapon tomorrow and Iran knows that the West will not be attacking any time soon.”
While Netanyahu and other Israeli defense officials have repeatedly said the country reserves the right to strike against Iran, Israel does not have the capability to do so without American assistance.
“It is difficult to image the current American administration striking in Iran,” Merhavy added. “Without the US, no one will do it. This means the threat is not very high.”
This has a double effect on the negotiations. There is little motivation to negotiate on either side, each for different reasons that lead to the same result – a dead end.
History shows that, in the end, a country that is determined cannot be stopped from obtaining nuclear weapons. Israel may have to learn to live with this threat.
Earlier this year, the militaries of Israel and the United States held a massive joint drill. The exercise included simulated target strikes. According to the Israel Defense Forces, the drill “tested collective US-Israeli readiness and improved the interoperability of both militaries to enhance their shared ability to counter regional threats.” Over 6,500 American soldiers participated in the drill, which included aerial and naval capabilities. Similar drills are expected throughout 2023.
This is meant to send a message to Iran, experts say.
“There needs to be a new phase vis-à-vis Iran,” said Guzansky. “The Iranians need to see a clear determination that there is a credible and readily available option against them that is just waiting to be executed by both the US and Israel.”
“Iran needs to know that its program can be severely harmed. The goal of the deterrence needs to be preventing Iran from crossing the nuclear threshold,” he added.
Israel and Iran have been engaged in a shadow war for several years. Israel is believed to be behind hundreds of airstrikes against Iranian targets around the Middle East. Through proxies, Iran has also attacked Israel and Israeli targets during this period.
While Netanyahu rejoiced in the American withdrawal from the nuclear deal, Iran’s progress toward a nuclear weapon appears to have benefited from its annulment. In addition, Iran has widened its regional scope and continues to fund anti-Israel armed groups in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip. Israel has said it wants any future deal to limit Iran’s regional aspirations and also curtail its conventional weapons program.
Iran is less inclined to do so. While it wants a deal that will help lift sanctions against it, Tehran appears to be in no real hurry.
“Iran causes enough damage to Israel without a nuclear weapon,” said Merhavy.
Israel, which is believed to possess nuclear weapons, also is reported to have the ability to strike back at Iran. For Tehran, the threat of possessing such a weapon may be enough.
“Iran seems to want a negotiated nuclear deal, the trouble is they are unwilling to discuss anything else, such as Iran’s regional expansionist actions, and without a broader conversation any new nuclear deal will rest on thin ground, and prone to quick collapse,” said Vatanka.
Understanding this, Israel will likely do whatever it can, barring an all-out offensive, to stop Iran.
“History shows that, in the end, a country that is determined cannot be stopped from obtaining nuclear weapons,” said Guzansky. “Israel may have to learn to live with this threat.”
