As Israelis and Palestinians Brace Themselves for More Loss, Israeli Military Offensive Intensifies
Israel aims to weaken Hamas' hold on Gaza through an extensive military operation
As the Israeli Air Force continues to pound the Gaza Strip on the sixth day of the war, the military has said it is preparing for the next stages of combat.
Any military goals set out by the political echelon may eventually be reached. Still, it is questionable to what extent Israel can change the reality on the ground in such a way that it will not resemble in the slightest the reality that existed before thousands of Hamas terrorists stormed southern Israel on a quiet Saturday morning.
Israel’s response to Hamas’ surprise offensive launched from Gaza into Israeli territory has so far consisted of hundreds of airstrikes against Hamas targets. Israel has also cut off Gaza’s water and electricity supplies.
A total of 1,300 Israelis have so far been killed and over 3,000 Israelis have been injured. Dozens of Israelis have been abducted, being held in Gaza by Hamas, their fate unknown.
The attack began with the infiltration of the border by thousands of Hamas terrorists and resulted in the taking over of several Israeli communities in the south of the country. The army has managed to re-possess hold of the territories.
“This stage of reclaiming control is over,” said Brig. Gen. (res.) Amir Avivi, founder of the Israel Defense and Security Forum. “Now the offensive has begun with a massive air offensive in order to weaken the area while preparing the ground forces for an incursion.”
Avivi, who served in the Israeli military for three decades, has held a wide range of roles. According to him, a ground invasion by the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), will likely include over 100,000 troops who will take over Gaza in order to eliminate it of Hamas’ presence.
Estimating this will take months, he says the hardest stage is the last one, in which the army will have to clear the area of any militants.
“They will go house by house, tunnel by tunnel,” Avivi described.
According to the IDF, over 300,000 reserve soldiers have been called up for duty since Saturday. The majority of them are amassing along the border with Gaza, others on Israel’s other fronts.
The government, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has stated its aim is to strip Hamas of its military capability. An Islamist militant movement and a major Palestinian political party, the movement was established in the late 1980s. Its main, openly stated goal is to bring to the destruction of Israel and removal of Jews from the country. Throughout the years it has become a political and social movement. Its hold over the Gaza Strip for almost two decades has also transformed it into the de facto sovereign, charged with the welfare of its residents. It is deeply rooted; eliminating it completely could be an unrealistic goal.
You cannot eradicate a terrorist organization completely
“You cannot eradicate a terrorist organization completely,” said Col. (res.) Miri Eisin, director of the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism and former deputy head of the IDF Combat Intelligence Corps, in a video briefing given to journalists by the Jerusalem Press Club. “ISIS still exists worldwide, and the entire world was against it.”
“A realistic end game is not eradication, what needs to be done right now is to try as much as possible to take out the active terrorists who are fighting and that includes a ground invasion and making decisions on how to handle the hostage situation,” she explained.
Hamas is not just a military wing; it is a whole social welfare apparatus, among many other things.
“Hamas is an idea, you cannot erase an idea,” said Dr. Michael Milstein, head of the Palestinian Studies Forum at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies. “Hamas is not just a military wing; it is a whole social welfare apparatus, among many other things.”
As a result of Israel’s massive air offensive, Palestinian officials report over 1,400 people have been killed and approximately 6,300 injured in the Gaza Strip. There has also been artillery fire and use of naval forces against Hamas targets, including reports that Israel has used the M270 Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) for the first time since 2006. The MLRS is an American-developed armored self-propelled multiple rocket launcher that can fire up to 12 rockets in less than 60 seconds.
Escalation is currently the only path.
Israel’s bombardment of Gaza is unprecedented. In the past four wars fought between the two, Israeli airstrikes usually pinpointed buildings, leaving adjacent homes and buildings untouched. Drone footage from recent days shows entire streets flattened, reduced to rubble.
“I have released all the restraints … and we are moving to a full offense,” Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said as he addressed troops stationed along the Gaza border. “Hamas will regret this moment; Gaza will never go back to what it was.”
Among defense experts, there is a consensus that for Israel to change the equation, a ground incursion is necessary. The last time Israeli forces entered Gaza by land was in 2014. Israel was hesitant to do so before and since then. The potential number of casualties is a price the public is not always willing to pay. This time, as scenes of unprecedented destruction are shown and harrowing stories of bodies that were mutilated are told, there appears to be an almost public demand for Israeli boots to enter the muddy, deadly grounds of Gaza.
“There are two Gazas—one overground and the one underground,” Milstein told The Media Line. “Most of Hamas, not only its senior commanders, are in underground tunnels. We are talking about entire battalions of soldiers, their infrastructure, all waiting to launch an attack on Israeli troops.”
For Israel to hit Hamas’ vast network of underground installations, it will need to enter in full force from the ground.
Hamas is the devil Israel knows
According to Milstein, the air offensive will likely continue in the coming days in order to pulverize as much of Hamas’ hold on the territory as possible. Only then will ground forces be cleared to enter.
“The question is if a ground invasion will eliminate Hamas’ military capabilities and weaken it significantly while still staying in power in Gaza,” he said. “You cannot topple the regime and stay there or topple the regime and let all kinds of radical Salafi cells takeover. Hamas is the devil Israel knows.”
Hamas, which meticulously planned the invasion, is likely also prepared for Israel’s ground troops. It will be a tricky operation and certainly bloody for both sides.
“The operation has to be very careful, but very violent,” said Avivi.
The presence of Israeli hostages could also complicate matters for Israel. If it has precise intelligence on their whereabouts, it will think twice about attacking there.
Eyes now are not only on Gaza. Since the outbreak of the war, the Hizbullah organization on Israel’s northern border with Lebanon has fired several rockets toward Israel. The IDF retaliated with artillery fire and drone strikes.
“They will continue to badger Israel,” said Milstein. “Any miscalculation could be the channel to escalation.”
Hizbullah is considered to be an even more formidable enemy than Hamas. Believed to possess over 150,000 rockets, many of them have a high level of precision, able to target almost every area in Israel. In addition to this arsenal, the organization reportedly has over 100 offensive drones. It has also gained significant combat experience, as it sent many of its soldiers to help stabilize the Assad regime in Syria during its lengthy civil war.
“What we have seen until now is an attempt to keep the northern front active and try to take a toll on Israel,” Avivi told The Media Line. “If Hizbullah wanted to start a war, they would begin firing hundreds of thousands of rockets.”
The last war between Hizbullah and Israel in 2006 began with a cross-border infiltration and abduction of two Israeli soldiers. Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah underestimated Israel’s response, which launched a widescale offensive that scarred Lebanon for years. While the incidents in recent days have resulted in no casualties, this reality could change abruptly, plunging the region into a wider, even bloodier conflict.
“Hizbullah is testing the waters,” said Eisin.
Deeply entrenched in Gaza, Israeli leaders are currently talking in terms of containing the Hizbullah threat. The mobilization of an American aircraft carrier to the coasts of Israel and Lebanon is meant to be a deterrent against any of Nasrallah’s aspirations.
Weeks of combat lie ahead for the region, a fight that could easily derail any plans on either side.
