Bennett Government Contemplates Strategy as Israel Braces for More Attacks

Israel will now likely focus on the northern West Bank, a stronghold for Palestinian armed militias, and closing gaps in the separation barrier, which the government neglected for years.

A deadly wave of terror attacks has struck Israel in recent weeks, pushing the country into high alert for further incidents. Fourteen civilians have been killed and scores wounded in four separate fatal attacks around Israel. Additional attacks, such as the stabbing Sunday afternoon of a border police officer at the Cave of the Patriarchs in Hebron, resulted in nonfatal injuries to the victims. The streak of violence, the worst the country has known since 2016, has left Israelis with a decreased sense of security.

For the young generation of Israelis, the frequent suicide bombings during the Second Intifada, the popular Palestinian uprising, between the years 2000 and 2005, were a distant memory or even a page from a history book.

When the first attack occurred in the southern city of Beersheba in late March, there was a sudden flashback for many Israelis who had gotten used to life without security guards at entrances to restaurants and shopping malls.

Three attacks later, there is an understanding that this might be more than just a few isolated incidents.

“We are in a difficult and challenging period. It could be that it will be prolonged,” said Prime Minister Naftali Bennett on Friday, after holding security consultations in Tel Aviv. He was preparing citizens for a turbulent period while encouraging them to go on with their daily routine.

“The State of Israel has gone on offense,” he said at the start of the weekly cabinet meeting Sunday. “[We] are operating around the clock to restore security and stop this wave of terrorism.”

Over the weekend, Israeli security forces operated in the northern West Bank, where several of the assailants came from. There were gun battles and violent clashes between the Israeli forces and Palestinians. Palestinian media reported at least one death as a result.

Israel needs to prepare for a major operation in the region, which includes conquering the area and cleaning it from weapons and armed militants. This needs to be done in the fastest possible manner.

The Israeli military said that it arrested suspected members of armed groups and seized firearms. Operations continued on Sunday.

“Israel needs to prepare for a major operation in the region, which includes conquering the area and cleaning it from weapons and armed militants. This needs to be done in the fastest possible manner,” said Prof. Boaz Ganor, founder and executive director of the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism, Reichman University, “Once the army withdraws, control needs to be handed over to the Palestinian security forces in order for them to regain control.”

“We need to see initiative in locating terrorism infrastructure and dismantling it,” said Dr. Barak Bouks, an expert in terrorist movements and religious terrorism at Bar-Ilan University.

The northern West Bank, and especially the city of Jenin, is considered to be a stronghold for Palestinian armed militias. While the Palestinian Authority has control over the area, its grip has weakened in recent years. Israel handed over control of Jenin to the PA in 1996 as part of the Oslo Accords.

Palestinian security forces have been instrumental in the significant reduction in attacks within Israel in the aftermath of the Second Intifada.

“An Israeli operation will help the Palestinian security forces regain control in the area,” Ganor added.

Since 2005, when Mahmoud Abbas became president of the PA, there has been close security coordination with Israeli forces. For the Palestinian president, those who advocate violent resistance against Israel are often the same elements that threaten the stability of his reign.

“Very few attacks originate from places in which the PA has a tight grip,” said Ganor. “Abbas understands that these attacks harm the Palestinian national interest.”

Israel will now likely focus on the northern West Bank but also on the separation barrier, which was built in response to the Second Intifada. The barrier was Israel’s attempt to stop a wave of suicide bombings during that period. As its construction progressed, the number of attacks was drastically reduced.

The barrier has been proven as a significant preventing factor of terrorism

“The barrier has been proven as a significant preventing factor of terrorism,” said Prof. Simon Perry, an expert in criminology at the Hebrew University Jerusalem and a former senior police officer.

Throughout the years, and as Israel was less threatened by suicide bombings, an increasing number of gaps opened in the barrier. There are spots where the barrier is not an 8-meter-high concrete wall but rather a barbed wire fence that has been cut open, allowing the daily entry of thousands of Palestinians into Israel.

The Israeli government turned a blind eye to these gaps, allowing Palestinians to enter as a way to relieve the economic pressure that many of them are living under.

“Maintaining the fence and monitoring all the Palestinians who enter Israel is costly,” said Perry, “For many years, the governments neglected the barrier even though they knew how effective it is.”

While gross domestic product in the Palestinian territories has gradually increased in recent years, barring fallout from the global pandemic, Palestinians still face great economic hardship with a lackluster economy.

Most Palestinians who cross do so to make a living, while only a minuscule number use the cracks to enter and carry out violent attacks against Israelis.

The concern now is that events will spill over to other areas in the West Bank and eventually to the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip.

The assailants in the latest attacks were Arab Israelis and Palestinians, each likely motivated for different reasons, making the Israeli response a challenging one. The first two attacks in Beersheba and Hadera were carried out by ISIS-inspired Arab Israelis, the other two by Palestinians from the West Bank.

In 2016, Israel dealt with a similar wave of lone-wolf attacks, with hundreds of stabbings, shootings, and car-ramming attacks. The response was varied, and it took several months for the wave to subside.

“The main deterrent for such attacks comes from the immediate surroundings of the attacker,” Ganor explained, “his family, friends, and Palestinian security forces. Dealing with lone terrorists is different than tackling terror organizations.”

However, the different characteristics of the attackers make it difficult to adopt a uniform response.

“In the short run, it is faster and more effective to tackle the opportunities terrorists have and not their motivation,” Perry said, “Dealing with the motivation behind attacks is more complex and takes much more time.”

As the Israeli military action in the West Bank appears to be at the beginning, there is an expectancy for more attacks. This could easily lead to a wider conflict.

“Israel is close to major and signification military activity in the West Bank,” said Ganor, “If there will be a connection between future attacks against Israelis and the Hamas organization, Israel will also have no choice but to operate against Hamas in the Gaza Strip. In addition, if there will be a lot of Palestinian casualties in the West Bank as a result of Israeli operations, Hamas will have difficulty not getting involved.”

Last year, tensions surrounding the Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem spilled over into an eleven-day war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.

The civilian population needs to be protected. At the same time, the population needs to be encouraged to go about their daily lives.

As in previous waves, it is the civilian population on both sides that pays the price.

“The civilian population needs to be protected,” said Bouks. “At the same time, the population needs to be encouraged to go about their daily lives.”

The challenge for the current Israeli government is to manage this delicate balancing act.