At COP29, Azerbaijan Navigates Climate Ambitions Amid Complex Geopolitical Ties
Azerbaijan's attempt to lead in renewable energy faces challenges due to its reliance on fossil fuels and complex regional alliances
Nearly 200 nations have convened in Baku for COP29, the annual UN climate summit. Azerbaijan aims to position itself as a renewable energy leader despite its longstanding reliance on fossil fuels and strategic partnerships with regional powers such as Israel, Russia, and Iran. Hosting the summit offers Azerbaijan a platform to showcase its green ambitions, though its energy dependence and complex geopolitical ties present obstacles to achieving its climate goals.
This year’s conference takes place against a backdrop of soaring global temperatures, the Ukraine crisis disrupting energy flows, and a recent US election that could signal a major shift in climate policy. Traditionally a key supplier of oil and gas to Europe, Azerbaijan faces both an opportunity and a test at COP29. Observers are eager to see if Baku can reconcile its regional alliances and energy interests with the climate commitments demanded by the international community.
This COP29 is taking place under unique pressures
“This COP29 is taking place under unique pressures,” said Taufiq Rahim, principal at 2040 Advisory, a strategist who advises leaders from US tech companies and GCC states on managing complex geopolitical challenges and uncovering strategic opportunities. “It’s the last major climate summit before US President-elect Donald Trump takes office, and while climate activists might criticize Azerbaijan’s fossil-fuel dependency, they’re on tenuous footing given the threats from the general political shift on its way in the United States.”
Azerbaijan’s bid to pivot toward renewable energy has garnered interest from Gulf states, particularly the UAE and Saudi Arabia, which see the South Caucasus nation as a strategic partner in diversifying regional energy sources. While Baku has launched initiatives with Saudi Arabia’s ACWA Power and the UAE’s Masdar, the transition remains in its early stages. These projects are part of a broader strategy to free up natural gas for export, primarily to Europe.
Azerbaijan’s energy transition is still in its early stages and lacks alignment with widely accepted climate change initiatives
“Azerbaijan’s energy transition is still in its early stages and lacks alignment with widely accepted climate change initiatives,” said Rauf Mammadov, an energy analyst with expertise in the region and former executive with the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic. “The country has consistently positioned itself as a reliable oil and gas supplier to Europe, and this focus is unlikely to shift significantly following COP29.”
The partnerships with ACWA and Masdar reflect Azerbaijan’s pragmatic approach: leveraging Gulf investments to diversify its energy mix while maintaining its role as a fossil fuel supplier. “The primary motivation for these renewable projects is to free up natural gas for export,” Mammadov noted. “While this helps Azerbaijan’s energy profile, the focus remains more on supporting traditional energy security than a full-scale shift to renewables.”
The UAE, under Dr. Sultan Al Jaber’s leadership as minister of industry and advanced technology, has played a key role in supporting Azerbaijan’s green transition. Al Jaber, who served as president of COP28 in Dubai, emphasized the UAE’s continued commitment to assisting Azerbaijan’s renewable efforts, acknowledging the challenges facing this year’s summit. “The world is meeting at a time of complexity and conflict,” he stated, underscoring the need for collaboration in advancing climate goals.
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However, the UAE’s dual role—as both a renewable energy leader and a major oil producer—raises questions. Al Jaber’s leadership at COP28 was praised for the “UAE Consensus,” a plan to transition away from fossil fuels, though critics argue that ongoing oil and gas investments undermine these efforts. This balancing act mirrors Azerbaijan’s approach: presenting itself as a renewable energy partner while staying committed to fossil fuel production.
The Israel-Azerbaijan Alliance: Energy and Security at the Forefront
While Azerbaijan’s partnerships with Gulf nations have drawn attention, its relationship with Israel is equally significant and complex. Israel relies on Azerbaijan for nearly 40% of its oil, creating a mutual dependency that has grown over the years as Israel seeks stable energy sources outside the turbulent Middle East. Beyond oil, the two nations collaborate on cybersecurity, with Israeli technology bolstering Azerbaijani energy infrastructure.
“Azerbaijan’s prime location along the Middle Corridor, combined with its abundant solar and wind resources, positions it well to emulate its natural gas export success through renewable electricity exports,” Mammadov explained to The Media Line. He added that the proposed Black Sea subsea electricity cable could enable Azerbaijan to deliver renewable power directly to Europe, bypassing Russia and positioning itself as an alternative energy hub.
This partnership complicates Azerbaijan’s ties with Iran, which views Israel’s involvement in the South Caucasus as a threat to its influence. Sanctions limiting Tehran’s renewable energy development capabilities exacerbate these tensions. Azerbaijan’s relationships with both Israel and Gulf states may disrupt regional power dynamics and influence its energy policies.
Despite these challenges, Mammadov believes Azerbaijan’s alliances with Saudi Arabia and the UAE will not harm its relations with Russia, Turkey, or Iran. “The Gulf states are also cultivating economic and political ties with these countries,” he said, emphasizing that Azerbaijan must tread carefully to maintain its strategic neutrality.
As Azerbaijan seeks to establish itself as a renewable energy leader, it must navigate its longstanding relationship with Russia. Historically, Azerbaijan relied on Russian infrastructure for oil exports to Europe. With European demand for Russian energy dwindling, Azerbaijan’s renewable initiatives—backed by partnerships with Israel and Gulf states—offer a potential path to energy independence.
“Azerbaijan’s renewable ambitions are a potential pivot away from Russian influence in the region,” Mammadov said, noting that these partnerships could enable Azerbaijan to diversify its energy exports and reduce its reliance on Moscow. However, Russia’s influence remains pervasive. With nearly 50 representatives attending COP29, including Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and key figures from Russian ministries, Moscow aims to showcase its own climate ambitions while closely monitoring its neighbors’ energy policies.
Iran is watching these developments with unease. As a critic of Israel’s involvement in the South Caucasus, Tehran views Azerbaijan’s ties with Israel and Gulf nations as a challenge to its influence. Sanctions and limited access to renewable technologies compound Iran’s concerns over regional shifts.
Balancing Climate and Geopolitical Priorities
The choice of Azerbaijan as COP29 host has sparked debate in Middle Eastern climate circles. Dr. Mahmoud El-Sayed, an Egyptian environmental policy analyst, highlighted the region’s struggle to balance climate commitments with political interests. “Many countries, especially in the Middle East, are walking a tightrope between supporting climate goals and managing traditional energy alliances,” said El-Sayed .He pointed out that Azerbaijan’s reliance on both fossil fuels and renewable energy partnerships reflects a broader struggle in the region to reconcile ambitious climate goals with the political realities of energy dependence.
Azerbaijan and Saudi Arabia are both pursuing renewables, yet remain deeply tied to oil exports. It’s a difficult balancing act, and COP29 is testing how far they’re willing to go.
“Azerbaijan and Saudi Arabia are both pursuing renewables, yet remain deeply tied to oil exports. It’s a difficult balancing act, and COP29 is testing how far they’re willing to go,” El-Sayed emphasized, noting the dual challenge of advancing green initiatives while preserving economic ties in a volatile region.
Reflecting on COP29’s broader implications, Rahim noted a potential shift in climate discourse. “The future of climate talks will extend beyond emissions to embrace new energy and technology,” he said. “If COP29 focuses on these aspects, it will be seen as a major achievement.”
Hosting COP29 allows Azerbaijan to advocate for its renewable ambitions globally while navigating complex alliances and energy interests. With pivotal roles played by Israel, the Gulf states, and Russia, Azerbaijan must balance competing priorities to realize its economic and environmental goals.
As the summit progresses, Rauf Mammadov reflected on the broader stakes: “The world is keenly watching to determine whether COP29 can go beyond mere words and genuinely advocate for a green transition in one of the most fossil-fuel-dependent areas.”
