Could Iran’s Exclusion From the Iraqi Government Lead to Armed Conflict?
Iraqi political activist Mohammed al-Khalidi said,“We may witness a return of bombings to Iraq and armed defections. The [Iranian] militias that have built up influence over 22 years cannot easily give it up”
The Iraqi elections have now become a heated race to form the largest bloc in parliament, following the Independent High Electoral Commission’s announcement of final results showing Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani’s list in the lead. Still, no single list has yet emerged as the sole candidate to form the next government.
Since 2003, Iraq has operated under a parliamentary system, where the speaker of parliament, the president of the republic, the prime minister, and the cabinet are elected by parliament. This process has proven complex, particularly due to the requirement of a two-thirds majority vote, political consensus, and pressure from neighboring countries, especially Iran.
During the last elections, the Iranian-backed Shiite parties formed the Coordination Framework, an electoral alliance that became the largest bloc in parliament. It was through this framework that Mohammed Shia al-Sudani was chosen as Iraq’s prime minister.
According to the current results, no single political bloc can form a government, as none has secured enough seats. Furthermore, the balance of power could shift entirely before the first parliamentary session. The Shiite political blocs operating under the Coordination Framework are likely to unite into a single bloc, giving them approximately 120 seats out of 329 in the Iraqi parliament. This would still prevent them from forming a government, which requires a two-thirds majority vote of at least 175. Since none of the current political blocs possesses this majority, forming a government requires the votes of minorities, the Kurdish list, and the Sunni list.
One of the winning candidates in the elections, who declined to be named, told The Media Line that Iranian Quds Force commander Gen. Esmail Qaani secretly visited Iraq several times and met with Shiite political blocs before the Iraqi elections, urging them to maintain the Coordination Framework and not disrupt it.
Iran cannot stop interfering in the Iraqi elections. The disintegration of the Shiite political bloc would mean the collapse of everything Iran has built in Iraq over the past 22 years
According to the source, Qaani issued direct orders to several figures, including former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, Qais Khazali, leader of Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq, an Iranian-backed Shiite militia, and others, demanding they preserve the unity of the Shiite political bloc.
Hamed al-Yasiri, an Iraqi political analyst, told The Media Line, “Iran cannot stop interfering in the Iraqi elections. The disintegration of the Shiite political bloc would mean the collapse of everything Iran has built in Iraq over the past 22 years.”
He added, “There is a flurry of activity from the Iranian ambassador to Iraq, the commander of the Iranian Quds Force, and several other Iranian officials to maintain the Coordination Framework.”
Al-Yasiri pointed out that “former Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, due to his selfishness, is the one who dismantled the Coordination Framework. Although he was the one who nominated the current prime minister, Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, for the position, al-Sudani’s successes in the government caused al-Maliki to fear that his own star would be eclipsed by al-Sudani.”
He continued, “Another issue is that Iran does not want Mohammed Shia al-Sudani. He was closer to the Arabs than to Iran, and also to the United States, which displeases the Iranians. Therefore, they are fighting him in every way possible and have tried to downplay his achievements.”
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The United States’ desire differs from Iran’s. According to analysts, Washington seeks to form a government comprised of al-Sudani’s bloc, the list of Mohammed al-Halbousi, a prominent Sunni politician who came in second in Baghdad, and the Kurdish list.
The US president’s special envoy to Iraq, Mark Savaya, appeared with al-Sudani in several videos before the elections.
On Oct. 31, Savaya tweeted, “Over the past three years, the Iraqi leadership has taken important steps to steer the country in the right direction, politically and economically. Iraq has begun to recover as a sovereign state, working to reduce external influences, place all weapons under the control of the legitimate government, and open its markets to international companies to help rebuild and develop the country’s fragile infrastructure. However, the work is not yet complete, and Iraq still needs continued support to continue on this path.”
Osama al-Zubaidi, an Iraqi political analyst, told The Media Line, “The US envoy to Iraq, Mark Savaya, has spoken repeatedly and publicly about supporting the Iraqi government, which is building the state, and that there is no place for militias in Iraq. Therefore, the US desire is clear in supporting Mohammed Shia al-Sudani. The Sunni politician Mohammed al-Halbousi also has support from the United States and the Gulf states.”
He continued, “It is clear that America does not want the Coordination Framework to continue and that it is determined to eliminate the militias. However, this may not be easy and will face strong Iranian opposition.”
It is clear that America does not want the Coordination Framework to continue and that it is determined to eliminate the militias. However, this may not be easy and will face strong Iranian opposition
Jamal al-Kilani, a former Iraqi parliamentarian, told The Media Line, “Everyone knows what the US options are. They certainly want a sectarian balance, separate from the militias, and they want to work with an entity that will distance these militias.”
He added, “It is true that the current prime minister, Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, has the head of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) on his list, but it is expected that the PMF will be integrated into the security forces, which is an option acceptable to the United States.”
Since the Iraqi elections concluded on Nov. 11, political parties in Iraq have been engaged in internal political maneuvering, holding consultations before the first parliamentary session in an attempt to form the largest parliamentary bloc and thus pave the way for the formation of a government.
Despite their initial disagreements, al-Maliki met with the head of the Progress Party, al-Halbousi, to dissuade him from forming an alliance with al-Sudani. These efforts, however, may not yield results given the pressure from the US and Iran.
Ghalib al-Douri, an Iraqi politician, told The Media Line, “It’s impossible to predict the future scenarios, but we can say that the current prime minister, Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, remains the most likely candidate. … If he manages to convince some members of the Shiite Coordination Framework, he could be tasked with forming the government, as he enjoys international acceptance, unlike the others.”
He added, “However, there are other contenders for the position, including former Prime Ministers Haider al-Abadi and Mustafa al-Kadhimi. Furthermore, the scenarios vary, and it’s not out of the question that one of the security chiefs could also be considered for the premiership, although regional and international variables could also be decisive in this context.”
Hussein al-Muhsin, an Iraqi political analyst, told The Media Line, “There’s nothing new in these elections. The future leaders are absent, the same political figures will remain, and the Coordination Framework will agree—that’s what I expect.”
Hussam al-Rubaie, an Iraqi politician and member of the Shiite Coordination Framework, confirmed in media statements, “There is a strong veto within the Coordination Framework against Mohammed Shia al-Sudani assuming a second term as prime minister, and it’s a matter that cannot be discussed.”
Given that the parties within the Shiite political alliance possess militias and armed factions, Iraq will likely descend into armed conflict if they are not included in the next government.
The US administration’s vision is to rid Iraq of militias and establish a state-controlled government. This is something that neither Iran nor its militias in Iraq will concede. Therefore, if they are excluded from the government, Iraq is likely to enter a dark tunnel of armed conflict.
These factions possess hundreds of thousands of fighters trained by Iran over the past 22 years. They wield significant influence within state institutions and possess vast wealth and extensive business interests both inside and outside Iraq, which could finance any future civil war.
Commenting on this, Mohammed al-Khalidi, an Iraqi political activist, told The Media Line, “The US administration’s vision is to rid Iraq of militias and establish a state-controlled government. This is something that neither Iran nor its militias in Iraq will concede. Therefore, if they are excluded from the government, Iraq is likely to enter a dark tunnel of armed conflict.”
He continued, “We may witness a return of bombings to Iraq, and armed defections. The militias that have built up influence over 22 years cannot easily give it up, and this is unacceptable to them or even to Iran. Iraq must stay away from this scenario.”
