Deadly Year in West Bank Leaves Palestinians, Israelis Wary About 2023
The new Israeli government is expected to be the country’s most far-right ever, and raises the possibility of an even deadlier conflict with the Palestinians
It was a bloody year in the West Bank and, as it comes to an end, there is little optimism for 2023.
Israelis and Palestinians continued to interact violently in 2022 in what has become one of the deadliest years for West Bank Palestinians in over a decade.
Israel captured the West Bank during the 1967 Arab-Israeli War, also known as the Six-Day War. Palestinians see the area as an integral part of their future state. Successive Israeli governments have allowed for the population of the area with Jewish settlers. These settlements are considered illegal according to international law. Israel maintains that the future status of the territories should be determined through negotiations. But these have been stalled since 2014.
“This year has consolidated the fact that there is absolutely no political process,” said Dr. Mustafa Barghouti, a member of the PLO Executive Committee and a veteran politician.
Violence between the sides has never fully subsided and it is the main, if not only, constant in the relationship.
Last spring, a series of attacks carried out by Palestinians against Israelis sparked an intensification of military operations in the West Bank. The string of attacks killed 19 people in Israel. The attempts by Israel’s military to quell the violence, known as Operation Break the Wave, have led to increased friction.
“What began as isolated incidents triggered a harsh Israeli response in order to try to stop the cycle,” said Noa Shusterman, a researcher focusing on Israeli-Palestinian relations at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in Tel Aviv.
According to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA), 151 Palestinians were killed in the West Bank in 2022, over 30 of them children. Almost 10,000 Palestinians have been injured, the majority in clashes with Israeli security forces. Nineteen Israelis have been killed and over 150 injured in the same time period.
Israel maintains that most of the Palestinian fatalities are members of armed terror groups, although there have been civilians and children killed in the violence.
In a statement given to The Media Line by the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), the military commented on its rules of engagement.
“In some cases, intense exchanges of fire occurred between terrorist operatives and IDF soldiers. It should be noted that live fire is meant to be used by the security forces only after all other options have been exhausted, and in accordance with the Standard Operating Procedures which accord with the international law,” according to the statement.
A new Israeli government will be sworn in this week. It is expected to be the country’s most far-right government ever, raising the possible risk of an even deadlier conflict with the Palestinians.
Barghouti lays the blame for the deadly year on Israel’s outgoing government, but sees no room for optimism with the incoming one.
“We have seen the harshest behavior this year, not only by the government but also by the settlers,” he told The Media Line. “The new elections show a general tendency in Israeli society, that has voted for the most extreme and racist government in history.”
The new Israeli government, under Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, will have two prominent members that are hard-line nationalists; Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich are both in favor of a tougher stance against the Palestinians, in addition to ruling out any negotiations or compromise with them.
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“These people will be handed the responsibility on every matter that relates to Palestinians,” said Barghouti. “This is very dangerous and will definitely lead to an explosion.”
We have seen the harshest behavior this year, not only by the government but also by the settlers. The new elections show a general tendency in Israeli society, that has voted for the most extreme and racist government in history.
In a first, Smotrich, who will be finance minister, also will be given authority over a department in the Defense Ministry which oversees settlement construction in the West Bank. He will have other authorities over the territories as well.
“Where there are Israeli settlements, there is less terrorism,” Smotrich said in a TV interview, making his intentions clear.
“It is doubtful that the new government will decrease military presence in fully controlled Palestinian areas,” said Shusterman.
The internal crisis in the Palestinian Authority (PA) deepened during 2022 as well. The violence that stemmed from the northern West Bank was a result of the continuous loss of control by the Palestinian Authority and its leader, President Mahmoud Abbas.
In 2021, Abbas canceled long-overdue legislative elections. While the official reason was Israel’s refusal to allow Palestinians to vote in east Jerusalem, Abbas more likely was concerned the vote would expose the loss of popular support for his leadership.
This move fostered internal unrest.
“The PA has practically eliminated any remaining democratic structure,” said Barghouti, “There is no separation of powers in the PA and a small executive group is controlling legislative, judiciary and executive powers. This has created a lot of problems internally.”
The proliferation of independent militias in the West Bank that have carried out attacks against Israelis has become possible due to Abbas’ weakness, he says. The increased Israeli presence in the West Bank, both in the expanding settlements and in military incursions, has added to the erosion of the authority of the PA.
“The Israeli behavior has further managed to marginalize and weaken the PA,” Barghouti added.
Israeli defense officials have been quoted in the media warning of the collapse of the PA government.
Meanwhile, Abbas, who is now 87, is nearing the end of his extended presidency. With the lack of a democratic process, a succession battle could turn nasty, further bringing the PA to the brink of demise. Abbas was elected to a four-year term in 2005, ousted from power over Gaza in 2007 and left with authority over the West Bank. The elections cancelled last year were already fifteen years overdue.
The question is not whether it is going to collapse or not, the question is it whether it will be an authority or a structure with no value or authority in reality
In 2022, frustration among the Palestinian public had many sources. That it continues without adequately being addressed, neither by the Israeli leadership nor Palestinian leadership, does not bode well for those seeking to calm the violence.
“The weakening of the PA as a uniting a body has a major impact on the internal dynamic in the Palestinian arena,” said Shusterman. “The lack of political horizon with no improvement in sight is also a decisive factor.”
Israel also bears responsibility for the weakness of the PA. Under Netanyahu’s previous governments, the consistent solidification of Israel’s presence in the West Bank while demanding Abbas quell violence targeted at Israelis was a major blow to the PA.
It also backfired on Israel, as local armed groups in different West Bank cities began operating against Israeli forces.
Yet, the chances of a complete collapse of the PA are slim.
Israel has no interest in taking renewed control of the territories it handed over to the Palestinians as part of the Oslo Accords signed in 1993. There are also a significant number of Palestinians employed by the PA, giving many of their families financial stability. The US also will likely intervene to guarantee the PA’s survival in order to prevent yet another escalation in violence.
“The question is not whether it is going to collapse or not, the question is it whether it will be an authority or a structure with no value or authority in reality,” said Barghouti.
Sadly, Israelis and Palestinians have grown accustomed to a violent relationship with no peace on the horizon. Yet things can still get worse, analysts warn.
“There is no real status quo here, rather a constant deterioration,” Shusterman summarized.
