Deif’s Possible Demise Questions Futures of Hamas, Netanyahu
Israeli airstrikes target Hamas leaders, uncertain if key commander is killed. Netanyahu juggles war efforts with political survival amid tense hostage talks and internal coalition pressures
A massive Israeli airstrike targeted Hamas’ senior military commander on Saturday has reportedly killed dozens of Palestinians, with the fate of Mohammed Deif yet unknown. Another senior military commander of the terrorist organization was reportedly killed in the airstrike.
“While there is no absolute certainty yet that they were eliminated, I would like to assure you that one way or another, we will reach the entire Hamas leadership,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said hours after the strike.
Netanyahu, who faces an uncertain political future, is juggling Israel’s war against Hamas and his own struggle to secure his political survival. Under public scrutiny, sometimes his national interests and his personal ones converge, and sometimes they contradict each other, hampering the ability to properly decipher the situation.
“There is a very complex set of considerations in a highly complicated situation,” said Dr. Liron Lavi, an assistant professor in the Department of Political Studies at Bar-Ilan University. “Some of the decisions made could be seen as matching political considerations, but that does not necessarily imply causation. It is not clear whether Netanyahu’s decisions are made to guarantee his political survival or not.”
Deif is believed to be behind hundreds of attacks that have killed many Israelis in recent decades, including the deadly October 7th attack that saw Israel launch its latest war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Hamas has rejected the claims that Deif was killed in the strike, although Israeli media reported that the defense echelon is convinced that the likelihood of his death is very high.
If he was eliminated, this is Israel’s biggest achievement since the beginning of the war. Deif has not only significant symbolic weight but also functional weight, which is even more than Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. He is behind the transformation of Hamas from a guerilla organization to an army, an army capable of carrying out what we saw on October 7th.
“If he was eliminated, this is Israel’s biggest achievement since the beginning of the war,” said Dr. Michael Milstein, head of the Palestinian Studies Forum at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies. “Deif has not only significant symbolic weight but also functional weight, which is even more than Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. He is behind the transformation of Hamas from a guerilla organization to an army, an army capable of carrying out what we saw on October 7th.”
According to Milstein, his disappearance will likely cause a vacuum in Hamas’ chain of command and its ability to recuperate or readjust from Israel’s intense offensive.
“Hamas, however, is a learning organization that will fix itself quickly. This is a temporary setback for it,” he added.
Therefore, the outcome of the assassination attempt could also impact the fighting in Gaza, at least temporarily, as an already battered Hamas scrambles to replace its prominent military mastermind.
The decision to target Deif came as a military and intelligence opportunity arose alongside a wide array of considerations, including the unclear fate of the hostage deal negotiations. It is not clear-cut what led to the decision.
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“The decision to target Deif came as a military and intelligence opportunity arose alongside a wide array of considerations, including the unclear fate of the hostage deal negotiations,” Lavi told The Media Line. “It is not clear-cut what led to the decision.”
There were voices within Israel that expressed concern that the escalation of attacks against Hamas’s senior leadership could jeopardize the talks at such a critical moment when they are on the verge of being concluded.
“We are all in favor of holding Hamas’ leadership accountable,” said Einav Zanguaker, mother of the hostage Matan, during a protest march on Saturday. “But this cannot come at the expense of our loved ones and the chance of bringing them home.”
The main question that arose immediately after the attack assuming Deif is dead, was the effect it would have on the negotiations between Israel and Hamas regarding a ceasefire and the release of at least some of the 120 Israeli hostages still being held by the terrorist organization for nine months.
The delicate negotiations on the deal are being mediated by the United States, Qatar, and Egypt.
“As of now, we have returned 135 hostages thanks to a combination of military pressure and a determined diplomatic stand. Only by continuing this double pressure will we achieve the release of the remaining hostages,” Netanyahu said in the press conference he held from the military headquarters in Tel Aviv.
At the same time, thousands of Israelis demonstrated across the country, calling the government to push forward with the hostage deal and accusing Netanyahu of stalling the deal. The Israeli premier leads a far-right coalition whose leading members have said they would oppose any deal that would see the release of thousands of Palestinian prisoners in return for the hostages or an agreement to cease the war against Hamas in Gaza. The withdrawal of the far-right elements of the coalition would topple the Netanyahu government, likely sending Israel to the polls at a time when the premier is highly unpopular. His opponents are convinced that Netanyahu’s political considerations are obstructing the deal.
It is clear Netanyahu wants to maintain his coalition and dissolve it at a time which is convenient for him. He is operating on two timelines, his political one and the one in the US in which he sees the growing chances of (former president) Trump to win the elections.
“It is clear Netanyahu wants to maintain his coalition and dissolve it at a time which is convenient for him,” said Lavi. “He is operating on two timelines, his political one and the one in the US in which he sees the growing chances of (former president) Trump to win the elections.”
According to Lavi, Netanyahu believes he will be more comfortable with Trump in the White House than with Biden. The closer to November, the less critical the timing of elections in Israel will be for Netanyahu, as they will likely be held after the American election.
In response to the claims and criticism, Netanyahu denied the allegations.
“I will not budge a millimeter from the outline that US President (Joe) Biden has welcomed. I will not add conditions, and I will not take away conditions. But you should know that neither will I let Hamas budge a millimeter from it,” he said.
According to several media outlets, the draft, an agreement brought forward by Israel and agreed to by Hamas, stipulated the cessation of Israeli military activities in Gaza, something Netanyahu denied in his latest press conference. The Israeli leader now claims the army will be able to continue operations in the Gaza Strip during the 2nd and 3rd phases of the deal, which would also see a gradual release of the hostages. This contradiction has many of the families of the hostages upset, claiming Netanyahu is torpedoing the deal by adding conditions Hamas will not accept.
“The new conditions brought forward by Netanyahu are a no-go for Hamas,” Milstein told The Media Line. “If Israel will insist on them, there will be no deal.”
Netanyahu insists on retaining control of two critical passages for Hamas -one which splits the Gaza Strip into two and the other on Gaza’s border with Egypt, a crossing that is believed to have facilitated the expansion of Hamas’ military capabilities through a large cross border tunnel network. In recent weeks, tens of Israeli soldiers have been killed in incidents in those areas, resembling the period when the military manned a buffer zone in southern Lebanon between 1985-2000.
Temporary solutions that have been afloat that would allow for an Israeli withdrawal with third parties monitoring both passages would also likely take time to implement, making them void in the immediate term.
Even if Israel agreed to that, it is likely Hamas would find some way to violate the agreement and circumvent the security arrangements.
“Even if Israel agreed to that, it is likely Hamas would find some way to violate the agreement and circumvent the security arrangements,” said Milstein.
Netanyahu’s far-right coalition partners have repeatedly stated they will resign if Israel concedes its power over Gaza and allows for the mass release of Palestinian prisoners currently being held in Israeli jails. In parliament and in public opinion, there is a majority in favor of such a deal, but those do not guarantee his survival. Netanyahu has vowed ‘total victory’ against Hamas, removing it from power and the release of all of the hostages.
For several months, the Israeli military has significantly scaled down its presence in the Gaza Strip, conducting pinpoint operations.
“The dilemma is not between a deal or victory, but rather between a deal and a war of attrition,” said Milstein. “In the current way the war is being handled, Israel is not making progress towards victory but rather controlling the two narrow passages with a small number of forces, while Hamas still controls the rest of the Gaza Strip. In no way will these lead to the toppling of Hamas.”
