‘Delicate Balancing Act’: Biden and Trump Clash Over Israel as Gaza Conflict Takes Election Center Stage
As the US election approaches, the Israel-Gaza war is highlighting Biden and Trump's differing stances on foreign policy amid unprecedented US-Israel diplomatic strains
With the US presidential election on the horizon, the conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza has surged to the forefront of campaign debates and has become a hot topic as the candidates try to sway potential voters.
Both candidates, sitting President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, have a broad and complex history with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Both Trump and Biden have spoken extensively about Israel, its relations with the Palestinians, and its regional position.
The US elections come at a time of unprecedented tension between the White House and the Netanyahu government. The strain existed before the war in Gaza began, as the Israeli government sought to promote a widespread reform of the country’s judicial system. While Netanyahu insisted that the reform would make Israel even more democratic, the US voiced its concerns that the overhaul would concentrate power in Israel’s executive branch. The White House also criticized the inclusion of several far-right ultranationalist cabinet ministers in the Netanyahu government.
The war and mostly the shock over Hamas’ brutal offensive had the Biden Administration quickly set aside any previous differences and show massive support for Israel. But, as the war dragged on, differences resurfaced. The White House became increasingly critical of Israeli strategy, or lack thereof, and also what it deemed as insufficient humanitarian assistance to Gaza and a mounting Palestinian civilian death toll. The American tone continued to escalate. Last month, the US did not veto a UN resolution calling for an immediate cease-fire in Gaza. The move was seen as the lowest point in the current rocky phase of the relationship. Netanyahu, on the other hand, retained his position as resisting any American pressure, although on the ground Israel has begun to adjust in an attempt to appease Biden.
The Jewish population in the US is the largest religious minority and plays a decisive voice in the American political arena, with a traditionally high presence of Jews in domestic politics. It also votes overwhelmingly for the Democratic Party.
According to several polls conducted in the US throughout the war, increasing numbers of Democratic Party voters have expressed disapproval of the Democratic president’s handling of the war and his policy towards Israel. President Biden found himself managing a delicate balancing act that got more complicated as the war lingers. He is caught between the support he has promised Israel, one which he appears personally invested in maintaining through his heartfelt speeches and allocation of unprecedented military aid and funds, and his political interests, which increasingly clash with that support.
With over half a year until the election, developments on the ground could change things. But also, Americans tend not to vote on foreign policy issues but rather on the state of their economy.
“Anything could happen until then. It is really difficult to tell,” said Nadine Bonner, vice chair of Media and Public Policy at American Democrats in Israel. “Israelis and American Jews tend to have tunnel vision. The US is a very big country, and there are millions of Americans who don’t care what happens elsewhere. The economy is usually the most important issue.”
In an already polarized campaign, Israel could be another thorny issue the sides rival on.
“Sometimes there are foreign policy issues that resonate widely with the public, and this is the case this time,” said Professor Chuck Freilich, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies. According to Freilich, this may not have an impact on a national level but will affect voting in swing states or states that have a large Muslim minority.
This holiday season, give to:
Truth and understanding
The Media Line's intrepid correspondents are in Israel, Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and Pakistan providing first-person reporting.
They all said they cover it.
We see it.
We report with just one agenda: the truth.
“The race is close as it is and, in these states, a small percentage of voters could influence the result,” he added. “Therefore, for Biden, this has become an important issue as his first strategic interest is to get re-elected.”
Throughout his career, Biden has prided himself on being a non-Jewish Zionist and great support for Israel.
“If Biden were not up for re-election, we would be seeing a different Biden,” said Bonner. “He has been a strong friend to Israel and is now in a difficult place given the split within his party. He is doing what he has to do in order to secure his re-election.”
Speaking at an Islamic center in Boston last week, Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren said Israel’s actions in Gaza could be seen as genocide.
A few days later, former speaker Nancy Pelosi, a prominent Democrat, was part signatory to a letter to Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken calling to halt arms transfers to Israel following an Israeli strike in Gaza that killed seven aid workers, including a US citizen. Pelosi has long been considered a staunch supporter of Israel.
Biden also faces persistent opposition from the progressive wing of his own Democratic Party. They have been vocal opponents of the White House’s pro-Israeli stance. At the basis of this, however, is a genuine disagreement between the current American administration and the ultra-right-wing Netanyahu government.
“The political considerations heighten the divide, but there are fundamental disagreements which Biden initially set aside at the beginning of the war,” Freilich told The Media Line. “The American demand from the first day of the war was to talk about Israel’s plans, in addition to care for humanitarian aid and avoid civilian casualties. This was the condition for American assistance to Israel, which in return ignored these requests.”
Playing on that divide, on Monday, Trump criticized Jewish Americans who don’t support him, saying any Jewish person who votes for Biden does not love Israel, adding the current President was “totally” pro-Palestinian.
“Trump is being deliberately provocative, and he might succeed this time,” said Marc Zell, vice president of Republicans Overseas and co-chair of Republicans Overseas Israel. “He is doing everything he can to show how incompetent the Biden Administration is and how the foreign policy has been atrocious.”
According to Zell, Jewish Americans have previously “turned a blind eye to such concerns during Democratic administrations.” While he is skeptical that voting patterns might change, he points out Trump is making such an effort.
At the beginning of the war, Trump laid the blame for Hamas’ offensive on Netanyahu and Israeli intelligence services—not differing much from the discourse within Israel. Last month, in an interview with an Israeli newspaper, Trump said Israel needs to “finish up the war.” The statement echoed a sentiment that the White House had already expressed. But, according to Zell, there is “no way he was agreeing with the White House.”
“As long as the war continues, Israel becomes increasingly isolated in the world, and why Israel is not finishing the war is due primarily to the policies of the American government,” Zell explained. “When Trump is making that statement it is another way for him to criticize the way Biden is handling the situation. Trump wants Israel to finish the war, but Biden is tying Israel’s hands.”
Other Republican politicians have lashed out at the White House for abandoning Israel, some accusing it of strengthening the Hamas terrorist organization.
Being in the crossfire between the Democrats and the Republicans is a relatively new position for Israel. For decades, US support for Israel was a bi-partisan consensus, perhaps one of the few that existed. In recent years, as Netanyahu repeatedly gave mixed messages, especially on the Palestinian issue, Democrats have grown impatient. Netanyahu has strung along Democratic administrations—usually supporters of Palestinian statehood—by telling them he supports such a state and telling local Israeli audiences he will not allow for one to be established. A growing Arab and Muslim population in the US has also had an impact on the discourse regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
“It was the secret to this very unique alliance,” Freilich said. “Along came the war and let loose all of the pent-up frustrations due to Israel’s refusal to do certain things despite all the support it receives from the US.”
Antisemitism could also play a role in the upcoming election. According to data from the New York-based Anti-Defamation League, there has been a surge in antisemitic incidents since the beginning of the war.
“The war has triggered blatant antisemitism that has been in the US before the war and is now all coming out,” said Bonner. “It may be separate to what they feel about Israel, but now antisemites feel safe tying it to the situation.” Bonner believes the situation is ‘too complicated’ and cannot predict how this could change the vote.
During the February Democratic primary in Michigan, in which the incumbent president was running uncontested, 13% of voters voted “uncommitted” as part of a movement to protest his handling of the Israel-Gaza war. That result was yet another signal to the White House that its Gaza policy was putting the president at risk.
While the many months ahead could lead to different developments, it is highly likely the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will retain its presence in the US presidential campaign.
