Despite Heavy Losses, Islamic Jihad Still Poses a Formidable Military Threat

‘20% to 30% of its capability was destroyed,’ veteran Israeli journalist says

A fragile truce entered into effect on Sunday night, three days after Israel’s preemptive air operation began bombarding positions belonging to the Islamic Jihad movement in the Gaza Strip.

The flare-up was the worst fighting seen in over a year. At least 44 Palestinians, including 15 children, were killed and more than 350 people wounded in Israeli strikes on the Gaza Strip, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry.

Israeli caretaker Prime Minister Yair Lapid said it was necessary to launch the operation against the Iran-backed group, claiming it was planning attacks following days of tensions along the border with Gaza.

Two senior Islamic Jihad leaders were killed, Taysir al-Jabari, the movement’s military commander in the northern Gaza Strip, and Khaled Mansour, its military commander in the northern Gaza Strip.

Retired Palestinian Maj. Gen. Wasif Erekat told The Media Line that Islamic Jihad had been dealt “a very serious blow,” but not a “fatal one.”

Some claim Israel succeeded in deterring Islamic Jihad and inflicted major damage on its infrastructure and its military power and capabilities.

However, Erekat wonders how the “group’s military ability was eliminated when it continued to fire rockets until the truce was announced.

“Israel is looking for a moral victory and wants to send a message to its home front that it has achieved its goals,” Erekat says.

The assassination of two of its leaders and several foot soldiers doesn’t translate to an end to the movement’s armed wing,” he says.

“From the perspective of gains and losses, the Islamic Jihad movement emerged victorious,” Erekat says.

Yossi Melman, an Israeli journalist and an intelligence and strategic affairs analyst, told The Media Line that Islamic Jihad was “severely damaged” but the movement is “not done.”

“No! No, no, no,” Melman emphatically responded.

He adds, however, that the military capabilities of the movement’s armed wing have been seriously diminished.

Two of its top military commanders were killed by Israel, and a “few other lower-level ranks were eliminated, too,” Melman explains.

“They fired nearly 1,000 rockets and mortar shells, and probably an equal number were destroyed by the Israeli military,” he adds.

Still, Melman says the group’s arsenal includes nearly 10,000 rockets.

“Anywhere from 20% to 30% of its capability was destroyed. It’s a significant blow to them but I don’t think it’s a mortal blow,” Melman says

It’s hard to find accurate and current figures on the number of Islamic Jihad fighters, but CIA estimates from last year put the number of armed fighters as low as a thousand and up to several thousand.

The movement was weakened, but it’s still able to regroup, Melman says. “They were surprised by the strong response of Israel, and the advanced technology and precise intelligence.”

Lapid said on Sunday that Israel achieved all of its stated goals and it was time to wrap up its military operation.

“I don’t know what the stated goals are,” wondered Melman, before adding that the goal was “to teach Islamic Jihad a lesson and to hit it where it hurts and eliminate as much as possible of its military capabilities.”

Most of that was achieved, and deterrence was created, “but how long it will last” only time will tell, he says.

Islamic Jihad maintains a large presence in the West Bank city of Jenin where Bassam al-Saadi, a prominent leader of the movement, was arrested last week, sparking the crisis that led to the Israeli aerial offensive that began on Friday.

“The factions spawn leaders, and if the question is about the weapons cache, the movement has the ability and experience to replenish its weapons stock and ways to get what it wants,” says Erekat.

The movement’s leadership has solid relations with Iran, from which it receives money and weapons, and it has strong ties with the Lebanese group Hizbullah.

Many of the Islamic Jihad fighters are trained in Iran, Syria, and Lebanon.

Islamic Jihad is designated as a terrorist organization by several Western nations.

“The past three days were a valuable opportunity for Islamic Jihad to lead the joint operations room and to manage the battle competently, and it was responsible for coordinating with the other factions [in the Gaza Strip],” says Erekat.

The group “ran a bank of targets and used the bullet point method, meaning that it did not go too far in using missiles and rockets,” he says.