Families Fear Escalation in North Will Distract From Hostage Crisis

As focus shifts from the hostages to a confrontation with Iran, one counterterrorism expert tells The Media Line that a hostage deal could help build the international coalition Israel needs to face Iran

The conflict on Israel’s northern border has significantly escalated in the past weeks. Mohammed Deif, head of Hamas’ military wing, Ismail Haniyeh, head of Hamas’ political bureau, and Fuad Shukr, a senior Hezbollah commander, were all taken out in targeted killings. These actions, especially the assassination of Haniyeh on Iranian soil, have intensified regional tensions and resulted in severe threats from Iran. Supreme Leader of Iran Ali Khamenei ordered direct retaliation against Israel, significantly increasing the potential for broader conflict in the region.

As tensions rise in the north, Israeli military operations in Gaza continue. A total of 116 hostages are still held in Gaza, not all of them alive. Families of the hostages are vigorously campaigning for the government to secure their release.

Both the Israeli military and Defense Ministry have declined to comment on the current situation in the north. The Israeli military has stated that it is prepared to operate under various scenarios.

At the start of the government meeting on August 4, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu emphasized Israel’s readiness to confront its enemies as well as its efforts to release the hostages.

“The State of Israel is in a multifront war against Iran’s axis of evil. We are striking every one of its arms with great force. We are prepared for any scenario, both offensively and defensively,” he said.

“At the same time, we are making a supreme effort, on a daily basis, to return all of our hostages,” he continued. “I emphasize—to return all of our hostages, without exception. We have an ironclad commitment to return all of them, the living and the deceased.”

But as the northern front heats up, demanding significant resources, the impact on the delicate efforts to secure a hostage deal remains to be seen.

Yotam Cohen, whose 19-year-old brother Nimrod Cohen is held hostage in Gaza, expressed his concern about the diminishing public attention on the hostages’ plight.

Nimrod Cohen. (Courtesy Cohen family)

Everything that happens outside Gaza or on other fronts diverts attention away from Gaza and the hostages

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“Everything that happens outside Gaza or on other fronts diverts attention away from Gaza and the hostages,” he told The Media Line. “This distraction prolongs the war, prevents a cease-fire, and consequently extends the duration of the hostages’ captivity.”

A Hamas-produced video of Nimrod’s kidnapping from Nahal Oz was posted on YouTube and Telegram on October 7. Since seeing the video, Nimrod’s family has received occasional updates about his status, such as news that hostages who were released in late November saw him in the tunnels. Israeli military intelligence last updated the family about Nimrod about two months ago.

“In the past few days, the Israeli people have been fearful of the situation with Iran and Lebanon, preparing for a massive attack. Despite that, the majority of people remain aware, focused, and informed about the hostage situation as much as possible,” Cohen said.

Most hostage families operate under the banner of the Hostages and Missing Families Forum to lobby the government and raise public awareness. Cohen said his family has been unsatisfied with the forum’s messaging and has mostly organized independently.

“For many months, we felt the forum’s messages were too soft,” he said. “We believe the forum is afraid to address the core issue: Netanyahu is preventing a deal. We started calling him out specifically. Recently, we’ve seen the forum moving towards this conclusion, but we think it’s taking too long.”

He said the symbolic acts promoted by the Hostages and Missing Families Forum are less effective than mass protests.

Counterterrorism expert Maj. Gen. (ret.) Noam Tibon told The Media Line that rescuing the hostages should remain Israel’s top priority.

Maj. Gen. (res.) Noam Tibon, March 18, 2013. (IDF Spokesperson’s Unit/Creative Commons)

Israel must now pursue the hostage deal in the south. We cannot leave anyone behind.

“Israel must now pursue the hostage deal in the south. We cannot leave anyone behind,” he said. “This is ingrained in the DNA of the State of Israel and the IDF.”

Tibon said that securing the deal would also benefit Israel militarily.

“Any developments in Gaza will immediately impact the northern front and our coalition against Iran, including the US and Saudi Arabia,” he said. “Israel needs to prioritize its interests. Currently, this means pursuing the hostage deal, closing the southern front, and preparing for a potential conflict in Lebanon.”

He accused Netanyahu of making decisions based on political interests rather than the best interests of the state, describing him as “the worst prime minister in Israel’s history.”

Hezbollah retaliation for Israel’s assassination of Shukr will likely be limited, Tibon said. “But the risk for an unplanned escalation remains,” he said. “As for Iran, predicting their actions and timing is hard.”

The hostage deal will help us build this crucial coalition

Tibon said that Israel needs to build a coalition with countries such as Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf states to take on Iran. “The hostage deal will help us build this crucial coalition,” he said. “This is essential for the security of Israel.”