‘Few Champions for Israel’ in Jordan, Regardless of Election Outcome – Expert to TML
Jordan's election, influenced by anger over Gaza, could see Islamist gains challenging its pro-Western stance as support for Hamas grows
Jordan’s main opposition, buoyed by anger over the Gaza war, says it expects its Islamists to win enough seats in today’s elections to challenge the country’s pro-Western stance, a result that could stir up the kingdom’s staid political scene, especially in terms of its ties with Israel.
The current Jordanian opposition and political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood in the country, the Islamic Action Front (IAF), says its voice is needed in the assembly to help reverse unpopular economic policies, oppose laws curbing public freedoms, and oppose further normalization with Israel, with which Jordan has a 1994 peace treaty.
Jordanians feel, overall, sympathetic towards the Palestinian cause. For this reason, the electorate may be more galvanized to vote this year compared to 2020.
Associate Fellow in the Middle East and North Africa Programme at the Chatham House Neil Quilliam explained to The Media Line that, although “many Jordanians have a Palestinian heritage … they are not a monolithic bloc, and neither do they vote en masse.” However, according to him, “Jordanians feel, overall, sympathetic towards the Palestinian cause. For this reason, the electorate may be more galvanized to vote this year compared to 2020.”
The IAF carries with it a political and social agenda that conflicts with the king’s more moderate and pragmatic stance, particularly regarding relationships with the West and Israel. A stronger presence in parliament, therefore, could embolden Islamist voices.
These elections come less than a week after a gunman from Jordan shot dead three Israeli civilians at the Allenby border crossing in the West Bank. Hours later, hundreds took to the streets of Amman to celebrate.
A poll by The Washington Institute for Near East Policy in November and December 2023 reported that 85 percent of Jordanians expressed a positive view of Hamas, a significant jump from the 44 percent who said the same in 2020. Furthermore, in 2023, the Arab Barometer reported that 49 percent of Jordanians favor increasing the role of religion in politics, a notable rise from previous years.
Anti-Israel sentiment in Jordan has surged since the start of the Gaza war, with IAF leading widespread demonstrations across the country in support of the “resistance” movement, which includes Hamas.
Despite being in favor of government policies, they will call for ending the peace treaty with Israel. No matter who wins or loses, there are very few champions for Israel in the Jordanian system, and relations between the two countries have never been this bad.
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This bodes well for the IAF, which not only supports the group but also calls for the termination of Jordan’s peace treaty with Israel.
“Despite being in favor of government policies, they will call for ending the peace treaty with Israel,” Quilliam stated. “No matter who wins or loses, there are very few champions for Israel in the Jordanian system, and relations between the two countries have never been this bad.”
However, despite strong support among the people, the IAF, fielding only 38 candidates for the 138-seat assembly, is unlikely to unseat the tribal, centrist, and pro-government deputies who dominate a system that underrepresents cities, where their Islamist and liberal opponents do best.
Moreover, the new elections and political parties’ laws give more space to women and youth, which may negatively impact the party’s results.
The current law requires political party lists to include at least one woman among the first three candidates and another among the next three. Similarly, it mandates that political party lists must include at least one candidate aged 35 or younger among the first five candidates.
Measures to establish political parties have become more strident. The law requires at least 1,000 founding members, comprising 20 percent women and another 20 percent aged between 18 and 35. The parties must also represent at least six of Jordan’s governorates.
The IAF may win more seats in the House of Representatives, but its influence will be moderated by the impact of the new laws, which have sought to mobilize women, youth, and new political parties to join the electoral process. This is meant to frustrate the IAF at the polls once again.
“The IAF may win more seats in the House of Representatives, but its influence will be moderated by the impact of the new laws, which have sought to mobilize women, youth, and new political parties to join the electoral process. This is meant to frustrate the IAF at the polls once again,” Quilliam explained.
The Islamists are urging supporters to go out and vote to show their opposition to Israel’s offensive in Gaza.
“The Islamists may increase their seats, but they won’t be able to form a majority in the 138-seat chamber. The electoral system has been designed to limit their influence. So, they won’t be able to change the rules of the game, nor will the king need to oppose their success,” he added.
Many people hope the IAF will triumph and instigate a change in Jordan’s political decisions.
The IAF may get many votes this year since it is closer to the people and their actions are visible and tangible in supporting the resistance. They may put an end to the peace treaty with Israel since this agreement has benefitted only the occupation instead of the Jordanian people. As Jordanians, we want change.
“The IAF may get many votes this year since it is closer to the people and their actions are visible and tangible in supporting the resistance. They may put an end to the peace treaty with Israel since this agreement has benefitted only the occupation instead of the Jordanian people,” Muawiah Nalawii, a resident of Amman, told The Media Line. “As Jordanians, we want change.”
Ameer, another Amman resident, noted that despite the very “tense” situation due to the war in Gaza, “people are motivated to vote. Every corner of Amman is filled with political slogans and posters.”
Jordan needs to take a stand, not just a verbal one, on Gaza’s side and cut the treaty with Israel. We are not at peace with it, despite a written piece of paper.
“I personally hope the IAF may win because people have long lost trust in previous parties, and they need something concrete,” he continued. “Jordan needs to take a stand, not just a verbal one, on Gaza’s side and cut the treaty with Israel. We are not at peace with it, despite a written piece of paper.”
Giorgia Valente is a recent graduate of Ca’ Foscari University of Venice and an intern in The Media Line’s Press and Policy Student Program.
