Gaza Ceasefire Teeters as Netanyahu Weighs Next Moves Under US Backing
Israel’s multi-front conflict deepens under Trump’s backing. A fragile Gaza truce teeters, while Israel pushes ahead in Lebanon. Netanyahu balances domestic hardliners and U.S. demands, shaping the region’s uncertain future
Israel’s multi-front war has entered a new phase as the US administration led by President Donald Trump changed the dynamics in the region.
Two months after Trump’s inauguration, Israel is at a major intersection, and the dust has yet to settle on the seismic changes in the geopolitical reality.
Israel’s far-right government, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, is facing major decisions regarding its multi-front war. With extensive support from the White House, it has to carefully consider its next steps. The Gaza Strip, Lebanon, Syria and Iran are the main arenas that Israel is currently facing.
The American leader, who has expressed his support for Israel on countless occasions, has also repeatedly expressed his wish for wider Middle East peace. Such a deal will not be possible without first solving the root of the current round of violence, which has engulfed the region – the Israeli-Palestinian war.
We are in an era of transitions, transformations, and a reconstruction of world order. Everything is on hold, waiting for fruition. At some point, strategic decisions will be needed.
“We are in an era of transitions, transformations, and a reconstruction of world order,” Professor Eytan Gilboa, an expert on the US at Bar-Ilan University and senior fellow at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, told The Media Line. “Everything is on hold, waiting for fruition. At some point, strategic decisions will be needed.”
Gaza:
The war began with Hamas’ surprise offensive against Israel on October 7th, 2023. Israel’s response was a massive retaliation, which included a lengthy ground operation that rendered much of the Gaza Strip unlivable. Trump’s proposal that almost two million Gazans relocate was immediately shot down by the Palestinians and condemned by the Arab world. A ceasefire that expired two weeks ago, is de-facto still in effect as neither side has resumed the fighting.
The ceasefire, which was the culmination of efforts initiated by former US President Joe Biden, was also enabled by Trump’s threats that there would be “hell” to pay if an agreement wasn’t released. The agreement stipulated that towards the conclusion of the first phase, negotiations on the second and final phase of the ceasefire would commence. This phase was supposed to see an end to the war, the release of all remaining Israeli hostages, and the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip.
After Israel violated the agreement, which the Americans helped kick start with much needed influence on Israel, we have not seen a true effort to implement the agreement fully. The administration has been trying to offer all sorts of proposals, some coordinated with the Israeli government. There was an expectation of continuity which we are not seeing just yet.
“After Israel violated the agreement, which the Americans helped kick start with much needed influence on Israel, we have not seen a true effort to implement the agreement fully,” Dr. Nimrod Goren, President of the Mitvim Institute and Executive Board Member at Diplomeds, told The Media Line. “The administration has been trying to offer all sorts of proposals, some coordinated with the Israeli government. There was an expectation of continuity which we are not seeing just yet.”
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On Friday, Hamas announced it had agreed to release Edan Alexander, a hostage soldier with dual US-Israeli citizenship, alongside the bodies of four other slain captives who are dual US nationals. Netanyahu’s office called the offer “manipulation and psychological warfare,” reiterating its support for an American proposal that will see the immediate release of 10 living hostages and an extension of the ceasefire for several weeks.
The American goal is to release hostages and continue the ceasefire. The US and Israel think the current halt of humanitarian aid and the threat of resuming the war will bring Hamas to agree.
“The American goal is to release hostages and continue the ceasefire,” said Gilboa. “The US and Israel think the current halt of humanitarian aid and the threat of resuming the war will bring Hamas to agree.”
Netanyahu has vowed to resume the fighting in Gaza, fiercer than before. However, as long as American efforts to negotiate a settlement continue, the Israeli leader cannot fulfill his promise. Trump has repeatedly said that Israel has the freedom to decide on the course of action, adding that American support is guaranteed.
“What is happening now is aligned with Netanyahu’s basic interests,” Goren said. “There is no permanent ceasefire, but no return to intense fighting. He has ruled out the return of the Palestinian Authority to rule in Gaza, he has derailed progress towards a two-state solution and has avoided officially ending the war, while maintaining a military presence in the Gaza Strip.”
Anything deviating from this could cost Netanyahu his government. Throughout the campaign and since the inauguration, Trump and other administration officials have voiced opinions aligned with the Israeli ultra-nationalist coalition.
The question is whether there is indeed a fundamental difference between the American position and that of the current Israeli government.
“The question is whether there is indeed a fundamental difference between the American position and that of the current Israeli government,” said Goren.
Meanwhile, the Israeli military is preparing for the resumption of the fighting in Gaza. Israeli media has reported that the government has instructed the army to make plans.
“The Americans are not interested in the resumption of the war, but they are coordinated with Israel on threatening to resume it,” Gilboa said. “If the resumption will be because of an Israeli refusal to agree to a ceasefire, there will be a disagreement. But, Netanyahu is not in a position to say no to Trump, and Israel will have to accept the American position.”
Lebanon:
The Lebanese-based Hezbollah terrorist organization joined Hamas’ offensive on Israel a day after the Gaza-based group stunned the Jewish state. At first, Israel retaliated with airstrikes. Months later, it accelerated its attacks. It successfully targeted the organization’s senior command, including its leader, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah.
It is believed to have struck significant amounts of its missile stockpile. Attacks on the border with Syria, which are believed to be a major crossing point for weapons from Iran to the terrorist organization, have made a major dent in Hezbollah’s ability to recover. A ceasefire that went into effect in November of last year has already expired and is still maintained, nonetheless, although Israel has continued to sporadically conduct airstrikes against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon.
Israel has also remained in five different locations within Lebanese territory, claiming they are a crucial part of its defense and citing violations by Lebanon, which has yet to fully deploy its military in the south of the country.
“The US is backing Israel on this,” Gilboa said. “The American and Israeli goal is to reach stability through a more permanent settlement, but this depends on the Lebanese army and how Hezbollah will react.”
Domestic political changes in Lebanon have enabled Israel to do this without pushback from Hezbollah.
The ceasefire was a diplomatic success for the US. American interests are served by this, but we are not seeing too much American activism in this arena but if there will be further negotiations, they will play a large role.
“The ceasefire was a diplomatic success for the US,” said Goren. “American interests are served by this, but we are not seeing too much American activism in this arena but if there will be further negotiations, they will play a large role.”
