Hamas Will Determine the Scale of Expected Escalation Between Israel, Islamic Jihad

Hamas faces a dilemma: Let the conflict remain between Israel and the PIJ or bend to pressure for a unified retaliation

Three top commanders of the military wing of the Iranian-backed Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) terror organization were killed early Tuesday morning by the Israeli army in Gaza. Israel is expecting a retaliation that most likely will lead to a significant escalation, but its scale will depend on whether Hamas will join the PIJ against Israel.

Israel’s targeted airstrike operation came after the PIJ fired over 100 rockets toward Israeli towns surrounding the Gaza Strip last week, in response to the death of PIJ member Khader Adnan following an 87-day hunger strike in an Israeli prison.

Israelis living within a 40-kilometer radius of the Gaza Strip were instructed by the IDF on Tuesday to open bomb shelters and stay near them, as this retaliation is likely to include the firing of rockets toward Israeli towns.

The IDF reported that 13 people total were killed in the bombings, including 10 civilians. The three commanders killed were identified as Khalil Al-Bahtini, the commander of Northern Gaza, Jihad Ghanem, a senior official in the PIJ’s military council, and Tareq Izz ed-Din, who coordinates the group’s terror activities in the West Bank from Gaza, according to the IDF.

“Al-Bahtini was entrusted with approving and carrying out all terrorist activities from northern Gaza, as well as planning and directing terrorist attacks on Israeli civilians and planned rocket attacks against Israel in the immediate future,” said the Israeli army.

Security expert Danny Citrinowicz, a research fellow at the Israel Institute for Security Studies, who served in various Israeli intelligence command positions, told The Media Line that the expected escalation has the potential of being very serious.

“As we all know from previous rounds with the PIJ, after events like these, they launched rockets toward Tel Aviv. [These rockets] are not highly sophisticated, but they can cause damage,” he said.

However, Citrinowicz believes that the real question is whether Hamas will decide to join the retaliation, “which will determine the [nature] of this escalation.”

Dr. Omer Dostri, a researcher at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security and an expert on national security and military strategy, says that Israel must be prepared for three types of escalation that all remain a possibility.

The first type “is a basic and low-level conflict lasting for one or several days, involving only PIJ while Hamas remains inactive,” he told The Media Line. The second, he continued, “involves a collective response from all terrorist factions in Gaza, including Hamas, and can last for two to several days of military conflict.”

The third possibility is a multifront conflict where Israel would face attacks from both Gaza and the northern borders with Lebanon and Syria.

“It is expected that such attacks would include a thousand rocket launches in the first and second options, as well as the use of UAVs, sniper shootings, RPGs, and anti-tank weapons, targeting both military and civilian targets,” Dostri said.

Citrinowicz notes that for Hamas, whether to join the PIJ in its response is a great dilemma and the group’s leadership is likely currently discussing strategic ways to face the situation.

On the one hand, Israel weakening the PIJ is not a bad thing for Hamas, as in some way it is one of its biggest power contenders in the Gaza Strip. Also, Hamas usually hesitates to escalate knowing that clashes with Israel will have a high cost for the organization, he explained.

Hamas is considered to be the protector of the Gaza Strip and it cannot stay on the sidelines

On the other hand, “Hamas is considered to be the protector of the Gaza Strip and it cannot stay on the sidelines,” Citrinowicz said. If it does not join, it may lose its credibility as Gaza’s protector figure.

Dostri notes that currently, “Hamas is not interested in engaging in a full-scale military operation or war with Israel. Instead, it aims to strengthen its position from within Gaza and improve the economic well-being of Gaza’s residents for political gain, which will help maintain popular support,” he said.

Furthermore, he pointed out that Israel has targeted only the Islamic Jihad and has communicated to Hamas that it has no intention of targeting them. That said, Hamas faces significant pressure to join the conflict with Israel and support the Islamic Jihad.

“If Hamas does not respond to the Israeli attack, it will break the existing equation which Hamas and other terrorist organizations attempted to impose on Israel,” Dostri said, explaining this equation as any Israeli attack in Gaza resulting in a unified and comprehensive response from all factions in the strip.

The continued aggression from the Gaza Strip has left Israel with no option but to respond strongly to the terrorism against it

Regarding the timing, Citrinowicz said that the targeted attack is most likely triggered by the rocket attacks launched by the PIJ toward Israel last week.

“The continued aggression from the Gaza Strip has left Israel with no option but to respond strongly to the terrorism against it,” Dostri agreed.

Nonetheless, he added that Israel prefers to engage in offensive initiatives and deception to achieve operational success against terrorist organizations in Gaza.

“Israel has been waiting for the right operational moment, which includes accurate and high-quality intelligence, favorable weather conditions, and other factors, to launch a military operation against these groups,” he said.