Hezbollah May Retain Leadership in Lebanese Municipal Elections
The elections are seen as a test of the Lebanese people’s support for Hezbollah after a period of devastating war. Early results in Beirut’s southern suburbs suggest that the Shiite militia and political party is still popular.
[Beirut] Citizens of Lebanon know what will be keeping them busy each weekend throughout the month of May. With municipal elections being held across the country all this month for the first time in almost a decade, residents will be watching the results closely. They are eager to see how the country decides to move forward from a record-breaking economic crisis, a pandemic, the deadly 2020 Beirut port explosion, and a brutal war that has left more than 4,000 people dead.
The municipal elections are being held under the leadership of a new government, led by Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, former president of the International Court of Justice, and President Joseph Aoun, former head of the Lebanese military.
The ability to organize a complex event like elections, particularly one that can be politically contentious, is another demonstration to the Lebanese people that these leaders wield authority and are worthy of their trust to lead the country.
“The ability to organize a complex event like elections, particularly one that can be politically contentious, is another demonstration to the Lebanese people that these leaders wield authority and are worthy of their trust to lead the country,” Noah Johnson, senior analyst for Lebanon, told The Media Line.
Voting began on Friday in the Mount Lebanon region, which includes the devastated suburbs of Beirut, a Hezbollah stronghold. Voting will then take place on May 11 in northern Lebanon and on May 18 in Beirut and the Bekaa Valley, which was continuously battered during last fall’s war. On May 24 the final votes will be held in the south of the country, where entire villages have been razed as Israeli bombing continues, despite the ceasefire declared at the end of November.
The elections are being held after multiple postponements. They take place in the context of years of political deadlock, just 14 months before parliamentary elections.
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“In 2022 and 2023, the official reasons for postponing them were financial, and last year it was the war, but unofficially, what we have now that we didn’t have then is consolidated political institutions in terms of appointees to key political positions,” Johnson said. Until January, the country had been without a president or government for almost three years.
Now, Salam’s government has only 14 months until the next elections and many challenges ahead. “Lebanon is showing the international community that it is entering a new era,” Johnson said.
I do expect at least a basic level of accountability and service delivery.
Mona Aridi, a Lebanese woman in her twenties who recently voted in her first ever municipal elections, told The Media Line that she wasn’t expecting the elections to result in major reforms. “But I do expect at least a basic level of accountability and service delivery,” she said.
“Like many others, I have had to navigate the uncertainties of recent years without a sense of stability or security,” she said, noting that many members of her generation have fled Lebanon in search of better opportunities. “Somewhere along the way, with one crisis following another, all of this began to seem normal, but we all know it isn’t.”
After years of economic and political challenges, the recent military confrontation with Israel has further shaken the country. A full year of crossborder clashes between Israel and Hezbollah culminated in a brutal Israeli military offensive. As a result, most of southern Lebanon and part of the Bekaa Valley are in ruins, with no prospect of reconstruction on the horizon.
Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon have continued and thousands of people remain displaced. Some blame Hezbollah for the destruction, and discontent with the joint militia and political party is growing. With its leaders assassinated, its arsenal dismantled, and its territories razed, Hezbollah is now fighting for its political survival.
Despite these trends, Hezbollah and the allied political party Amal remain a dominant force in Beirut’s southern suburbs, Johnson said. “That does not necessarily mean that the same will happen in next year’s legislative elections or that the people of those communities are entirely satisfied with them,” he cautioned.
Some of the most prominent members of the Shia opposition to Hezbollah stated that they refused to run because there were no mega-polling centers, where people could vote outside their area or community and avoid the pressures and punishments that come with voting locally.
“There has been a notable absence of candidates from protest movements and those opposed to the militia in those areas. In fact, some of the most prominent members of the Shia opposition to Hezbollah stated that they refused to run because there were no mega-polling centers, where people could vote outside their area or community and avoid the pressures and punishments that come with voting locally,” he explained, referring to the extensive networks of patronage that exist in Lebanese politics, especially at the local level.
As the polls opened, President Aoun celebrated Lebanon’s progress toward recovery. “Taking responsibility begins after the elections,” he said in a message to the new local leaders.
Aridi insisted that local reforms must begin as soon as possible.
“With everything that has been happening, it seems more urgent to see tangible improvements first at the local level, because that is where they are most needed and that is where decisions directly impact people’s lives,” she said.
