Hours Before a Possible End to the Gaza War, Ceasefire Deal Raises Difficult Questions in Israel
Hawkish Israelis oppose releasing Palestinians in exchange for Israeli hostages, while some hostage families fear a multipart deal could prevent their loved ones from ever being freed
Following reports that negotiations are in their final hours for a deal to end the war in Gaza and release some of the hostages held there, a heated debate is ongoing in Israel about the efficacy and ethics of the deal.
Intense negotiations have been underway in Qatar for several days, as the Qatari hosts, the US, and Egyptian mediators attempt to bring a halt to the war between Israel and Hamas. Outgoing US President Joe Biden said on Monday that the talks were “on the brink” of an agreement. Incoming President Donald Trump, who vowed there would be “all hell to pay” if an agreement wasn’t reached before his January 20 inauguration, said the negotiating sides had agreed on the terms of the deal.
“We are very close to getting it done,” Trump said in an interview with Newsmax on Monday. “There has been a handshake, and they are getting it finished.”
“If it won’t happen, there will be a lot of trouble,” he added, in another attempt to ratchet up the pressure to end the 15-month war that has engulfed much of the Middle East.
With the help of American, Qatari, and Egyptian mediators, Israel and Hamas have been negotiating the terms of a deal for over a year. On previous occasions, reports had suggested that a deal was impending, only for hopes to be quashed as the fighting continued.
“The game changer is the election of Trump,” Guy Aviad, a military historian and expert on Hamas, told The Media Line. “This time, things appear to be more serious than ever before.”
The deal, which has not been finalized or officially announced, is reportedly divided into stages and will not necessarily see all the hostages released.
According to reports, 33 hostages, most of them alive, will be released as part of the first stage of the deal. The release might also be in increments, with a few hostages released every day. Hostages released in the first phase will include women, children, older people, and wounded civilians. In return, Israel will release 1,000 Palestinian prisoners held in its jails.
After two weeks, negotiations regarding the second phase of the deal will begin. In this stage, male soldiers and men of military age are supposed to be released. Israel is then expected to withdraw its forces from most of the Gaza Strip and release another large number of Palestinian prisoners.
Hamas’ October 7, 2023, attack, which stunned Israel, became the opening shot of a regional war that is still ongoing. Approximately 1,200 Israelis were killed in one day, and thousands more were wounded. More than 250 people were taken hostage by Hamas.
Over 100 of the hostages were released in a temporary truce a month later. During the war, some bodies of hostages have been recovered, and few have been rescued alive. Fifteen months after being taken hostage, 98 people are still in captivity, many of them believed dead.
According to the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry, over 46,000 Palestinians have been killed in Israel’s Gaza offensive. The death toll does not distinguish between terrorists and civilians, and Israel maintains that many of the dead are terrorists.
UN figures suggest almost 90% of Gaza’s population has been displaced several times due to Israeli military maneuvers. Entire neighborhoods and other buildings have been reduced to rubble by incessant airstrikes.
The nature of the current deal, which would not necessitate an end to the war or a full release of the hostages, comes with risk and has drawn significant criticism in Israel.
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“After a year of war, with the trust between Israel and Hamas nonexistent, there is a need for confidence building stages,” Shaul Bartal, a research associate at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, told The Media Line. “By its own definition, Hamas is an organization that aims to destroy Israel and has proven capable of carrying out acts of genocide against it. Therefore Israel is not willing to seal a deal in one stage.”
The first stage of the deal is expected to last more than a month. That means plenty of time for the deal to fall apart, especially given the nonexistent trust between Hamas and Israel.
There are so many potholes and risks in the first phase alone
“There are so many potholes and risks in the first phase alone,” Aviad said. He explained that Israel might violate the terms of the ceasefire if the military decides it needs to operate.
The reports of an incremental deal have led to an outcry by families of hostages who are not expected to be released in the first stage. Their concern is that the fragile nature of the deal could easily lead to its collapse, condemning their loved ones to an eternity in captivity. It is unclear whether all the hostages will be released by the time the entire deal is implemented.
Hamas, which seeks to secure its continued rule in Gaza and its ability to rehabilitate after over 15 months of an intense Israeli offensive, will reportedly receive guarantees that Israel will cease its military activities in the strip completely.
In the current ceasefire between Israel and the Lebanese-based Hezbollah terrorist group, the Israeli military has continued striking at targets in Lebanon.
“Hamas is not a stupid organization and is very sophisticated,” Aviad said. “The ceasefire in Lebanon is one-sided. Hezbollah has held its fire, but Israel hasn’t, and Hamas refuses to accept such a situation in Gaza. Hamas knows how Israel works, and it will want to keep at least some hostages until it receives ironclad international guarantees that as soon as the deal is over and all of the hostages are released, Israel will not renew the war and resume operations against Hamas members.”
Four of the 100 or so hostages still in Gaza were abducted years before the current war. Hamas is believed to be holding the bodies of two Israeli soldiers, Hadar Goldin and Oron Shaul, who were killed in a military operation in 2014. In addition, two civilians, Avera Mengistu and Hisham al-Sayed, are being held in the Gaza Strip after straying there accidentally.
“The only guarantee it has now are the hostages,” Aviad said of Hamas. “Theoretically, Hamas could lie and say that due to the massive destruction in Gaza it cannot reach all of the hostages. Hamas has no problem holding hostages for years.”
Mengistu and al-Sayed appeared in an unconfirmed list published last week of hostages to be released in the first phase of the deal.
Another part of the deal pertains to the return home of the 1 million or so Palestinians who were displaced from their homes in northern Gaza. Critics of the deal say that Israel ought to maintain an unpopulated buffer zone in that area. They say that the return to northern Gaza, which was the base for much of the incursion on October 7, 2023, would pose a renewed risk to Israel.
Aviad dismissed the idea that letting go of the buffer zone would put Israel at increased risk.
In recent weeks, the Israeli military has been engaged in intense fighting in northern Gaza. Several recent deaths in the area brought the total number of Israeli soldiers killed in the ground operation to 405.
“Some of the toughest battles were fought in northern Gaza, where most of Hamas’ power was concentrated,” Bartal said. “Israel managed to crush Hamas as an organized military group, and once people will be allowed back, this will allow it to rehabilitate.”
Perhaps the most difficult pill for Israelis to swallow is the expected release of thousands of Palestinian prisoners. According to B’Tselem, an Israeli human rights group, there has been a sharp rise in the number of Palestinians held in Israeli prisons since the beginning of the war. Before the war, approximately 5,200 Palestinians were held in Israeli prisons, and thousands more were incarcerated in the months since.
Hundreds of incarcerated Palestinians have been sentenced to life in prison for carrying out some of the deadliest attacks of the Second Intifada, the Palestinian terror wave of 2000-2005.
Israel cannot abandon its brothers and sisters to die in the hell that is Gaza
“After such a deal, there is always a risk that some of those released will return to plan and commit acts of terrorism,” Aviad said. “But this is a price Israel needs to pay for its negligence. Israel cannot abandon its brothers and sisters to die in the hell that is Gaza. This is a reasonable price to pay to bring them home.”
In 2011, Israel released over 1,000 prisoners in exchange for Gilad Shalit, an Israeli soldier taken captive by Hamas in 2006. One of the prisoners released was Yahya Sinwar, who later became Hamas’ leader and was the mastermind of the October 7 offensive. Sinwar was killed by Israeli troops a year after the war began, but Israelis are not quick to forget his ruthlessness or their anger at his release.
“Some of the people Hamas wants released now could lead Hamas to strengthen and rebuild itself,” Bartal said. “Often a released prisoner becomes even more extremist than he was before.”
Some of the people Hamas wants released now could lead Hamas to strengthen and rebuild itself
Some senior members of the Israeli government threatened to resign on Tuesday, saying the deal was “promiscuous” and would be a “catastrophe” for Israel’s security.
Among Israelis, there is also a sentiment of bitterness at what many see as a lopsided deal.
“Hamas kidnapped innocent Israelis, including children, in order to release terrorists that have been convicted of murdering hundreds of Israelis,” Bartal said. “It is important to note that all international organizations and courts have called for the unconditional release of the hostages, and here Israel is agreeing to a conditional release.”
For now, the fate of Israel’s hostages and its war on Hamas hang in the balance of the proposed deal. Whether the deal is achieved still remains to be seen, as does the extent to which it is implemented.
