Iraqi Militias Brace for Israeli Strikes and Possible Regime Change
Tehran-backed militias prepare for attacks as Baghdad warns of open war and speculation grows over a Baath Party-linked political future
Iraqis believe that the coming months, with the return of US President-elect Donald Trump to power, will witness the collapse of the current ruling regime in Baghdad. Another contributing factor is the Israeli war, whose impact has extended beyond Gaza; the war has eliminated Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Assad regime in Syria.
This prediction has reached the Iranian-backed Iraqi militias in Baghdad and various governorates, which have taken precautionary measures for fear of a possible Israeli attack. Consequently, many militias throughout the city have changed their headquarters, transferred their weapons to other areas, and enhanced the security of their leaders.
The Iraqi government has issued warnings of possible Israeli strikes against armed factions inside Iraq. In several statements, the government has cautioned against such strikes, warning of an open war if these militias are targeted. It has called for an emergency meeting of the Arab League to discuss a possible Israeli strike on Iraq.
Amid these events, Dr. Jamal Mustafa Al-Sultan, the son-in-law of former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, has been conducting TV and newspaper interviews in Doha, where he lives with his wife, Hala, Saddam’s youngest daughter. Mustafa has been discussing the future of Iraq and historical events.
A source from Saddam’s former Baath Party told The Media Line, “Jamal Mustafa is the candidate to lead Iraq after a possible Israeli strike and the collapse of the ruling regime in Iraq.”
The source added: “Jamal Mustafa is a veteran politician who has the ability to rescue Iraq from the current ruling regime. There are contacts taking place between Dr. Jamal and several international parties, including Arab and Western countries, to return to Iraq in the event of a desire to change the ruling political regime loyal to Tehran.”
Mustafa, born in 1964, is originally from the city of Tikrit, Saddam’s former city of origin. He also held several military positions and was a lieutenant colonel in Saddam’s security apparatus. After marrying Hala, Mustafa was appointed as the second secretary to Saddam.
In this context, Ahmed Al-Basheer, the most prominent Iraqi media figure who presents a weekly satirical political program that airs on the German channel DW, raised eyebrows when he said that these might be the last days of the ruling Iraqi regime.
Al-Basheer’s statement, which is widely circulated in Iraqi circles, was broadcast in the Nov. 22, 2024, episode, which followed an episode in which he mocked the selection of Mahmoud Al-Mashhadani as speaker of the Iraqi Parliament after more than a year and a half. He said: “Mahmoud Al-Mashhadani was the speaker of the first Parliament in the current regime, and now he will be the speaker of the last Parliament in this regime.”
Al-Basheer resides abroad, as he cannot return to Iraq given that his satirical program mocks all current politicians, including clerics. Successive Iraqi governments also accuse him of being an “agent of the American Embassy.”
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Al-Bashir also said in his last episode of the current season: “Maybe I will present the next season from Baghdad. There will be no more Iraqi refugees abroad. We will probably return,” referring to the fact that the current Iraqi government will not survive.
Meanwhile, Abdul Amir Jaafar, a branch manager of an Iraqi retail bank, told The Media Line, “There is a large movement of money withdrawals by some militias, and this money is being transferred to gold bars or real estate in the names of other people.”
Jaafar added: “This movement of money withdrawals is not normal, there is a fear among the militias that their money will be confiscated by US President Donald Trump, or even the end of the current regime as is currently rumored in Iraq.”
During his first term in office, US President-elect Trump imposed sanctions on dozens of militia leaders and Iraqi politicians. These sanctions led to the freezing and confiscation of billions of dollars in their assets, which disrupted their interests and made them unable to dispose of these funds.
It is very likely that the Iraqi militias will be completely wiped out by Israeli airstrikes, as happened with the Lebanese Hezbollah
“It is very likely that the Iraqi militias will be completely wiped out by Israeli airstrikes, as happened with the Lebanese Hezbollah,” Azad Akbar, an Iraqi Kurdish politician, told The Media Line.
“Everyone expects this, even Iran has told its militias in Iraq that it cannot provide them with any kind of support, so they are preparing for this war,” Akbar added.
“Now many of them are buying properties in Kurdistan, others may move to neighboring countries, we may see a mass exodus of the leaders of these militias,” he continued.
Akbar also said, “The Iraqi government is now trying to avoid a possible Israeli strike, which could lead to the complete collapse of the Iraqi regime, and there may be another regime in power.”
We are ready for war, we will not give up our land, and we will confront the enemy no matter what the cost
“We are ready for war, we will not give up our land, and we will confront the enemy no matter what the cost,” Fadhel Abdul Amir, a commander in the Iranian-backed Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq militia, told The Media Line.
Shafiq al-Tikriti, an Iraqi opposition leader, told The Media Line: “We will see a regime change in Iraq as happened in Afghanistan, and there will be a new system of government.”
He continued: “Jamal Mustafa is currently popular, and he will be the next politician. We must not forget that Raghad Saddam Hussein, the daughter of the former Iraqi president, said last year that she will return to Iraq very soon.”
Al-Tikriti added: “In Afghanistan, there was coordination between the Taliban and the United States, and such coordination is currently taking place with elements of the Baath Party to return to power in a new form, and with greater acceptance in the region.”
The Iraqi regime will not last, and we will see the end of the militias that pose a threat to Israel and the region
Ayyad al-Shammari, an Iraqi political analyst, told The Media Line, “It is true that the Iraqi regime will not last, and we will see the end of the militias that pose a threat to Israel and the region, but we will not see the return of the Baath Party.”
“The militias will change, and there will be new faces, and perhaps all the armed factions will end, and perhaps the war in Syria will be the grinding for them, but there is no acceptance among Iraqis of the return of any of Saddam Hussein’s relatives or even his party,” he added.
“Even the Arab region will not accept that; no one wants Iran, but no one wants the backward Baath regime.”
