Israel Agrees to US Ceasefire Extension, but Are Trump and Netanyahu Playing Different Games?
Trump isn’t just pushing for a pause in fighting—he wants a historic agreement to achieve peace in the Middle East. Israel has agreed to the US proposal to extend the ceasefire, but Netanyahu may not be on board with Trump’s grander vision.
The fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hamas officially ended two weeks ago, but so far, both sides are holding their fire. Israel and Hamas seem to be carefully eyeing each other, waiting for developments to unfold. Whatever those developments may be, they will have far-reaching global consequences.
A Thursday report from Axios gave a first glimpse at how negotiations seem to be developing. According to the report, US hostage envoy Steve Witkoff presented a new ceasefire-extension proposal while in Doha on Wednesday. Under this proposal, the ceasefire would be extended until April 20, ensuring a period of calm during both the Muslim holiday of Ramadan and the Jewish holiday of Passover.
In exchange for Israel allowing humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip, Hamas would release five of the 24 living hostages thought to remain in Gaza and 10 of the 35 hostages confirmed deceased.
That’s apparently more generous to Hamas than Witkoff’s previous proposal, which would have Hamas release about half of all the hostages still in Gaza.
Axios reported that Israel had given “a positive response” to the US proposal, but Israel’s Channel 12 news later said that Israel was demanding more living hostages be freed.
It’s still not clear what Hamas has to say about Witkoff’s proposal. Throughout the negotiations, Hamas has reportedly demanded a permanent end to the war and the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip. That condition has consistently been at odds with the conditions of the Israeli negotiators, who want the ceasefire extended on Israel’s terms, without ending the war on Hamas.
The deal Israel and Hamas signed in January included a second stage of negotiations leading up to a permanent end to the war. For the past two weeks, the Israeli government has seemed to be dragging its feet on those negotiations. Instead, Israel has tried to press Hamas to accept its terms by cutting off electricity, food, medicine, and other humanitarian aid to Gaza. Israel has restricted aid into the enclave and its almost 2 million residents for over 10 days now.
These recent developments suggest Israel may be increasingly willing to compromise—but it’s unclear to what extent. After Channel 12 reported that Israel’s negotiating team was no longer pushing for senior Hamas leaders to be exiled from the enclave, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu dismissed that report as “fake news.”
Throughout the negotiations, Netanyahu has remained insistent that when the war ends, Hamas will not remain in power in the Gaza Strip.
US President Donald Trump is keenly interested in the outcome of these negotiations. As Hamas insists on ending the war once and for all and Israel insists on taking down Hamas, President Trump has his own objective: seeking a broader agreement that not only ends the fighting but also paves the way for Israeli-Saudi normalization.
Why Does President Trump Want the War To End?
President Trump has vowed to end the war in Gaza and secure the release of all Israeli hostages. He also brought forward a plan to permanently relocate Gaza’s residents and take US control of Gaza in order to rebuild the war-torn territory. According to the United Nations, almost 70% of all structures in the Gaza Strip have been destroyed or damaged, and 80% of the roads in the territory are unusable.
The suggestion, which the American president made in February, was condemned by Palestinians and the Arab world.
On Wednesday, Arab foreign ministers announced they would continue their deliberations with Witkoff on the rehabilitation of Gaza, after their initial counterproposal, which would allow Gaza’s civilians to stay, was shot down by President Trump. That same day, Trump appeared to retreat from his proposal of the permanent relocation of Gazans. “Nobody’s expelling any Palestinians,” he said in response to a journalist’s question.
Days earlier, it became public that Trump’s envoy for hostages, Adam Boehler, had held direct talks with Hamas. Direct negotiations with a US-designated terrorist group marked a sharp departure from American policy, and they also appeared to bear little if any fruit.
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Sharona Shir Zablodovsky, an expert on public policy and national security at the Tel Aviv-based Dvorah Forum, told The Media Line that Israel was well aware of Boehler’s talks, despite direct negotiations with terrorists also diverging from Israeli policy.
President Trump has grander ambitions than simply securing the release of the hostages. Coveting a Nobel Peace Prize, he would like to achieve peace in the Middle East.
One path to the Nobel Peace Prize might be normalizing relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Such a plan was already being discussed during Joe Biden’s presidency, but it was forced to the back burner when Hamas carried out its surprise offensive.
Looking to revive that plan and secure a new pathway for international trade and commerce, President Trump needs the Israel-Hamas war to be over. For this to happen, many individual pieces of the puzzle must come into place.
Why Does Netanyahu Want To Continue Fighting Hamas?
“Israel is still committed to its war goals,” Shir Zablodovsky said. “It is now trying to make progress in the negotiations in order to end the war, but it is clear to all sides that in addition to releasing the hostages, Israel wants to topple Hamas.”
One reason behind the insistence of wiping out Hamas is clear: the group poses a deadly threat to Israel’s existence. Approximately 1,200 Israelis were killed and thousands more were injured in the surprise October 7, 2023, attacks that set off the war. Over 250 hostages were taken by the terrorist group.
Israel’s retaliation was fierce. Its air force bombarded the territory and its ground forces entered weeks later. According to the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry, which does not distinguish between civilians and terrorists, over 48,000 Palestinians have been killed by Israel since then and over 110,000 injured.
Israel claims at least half of the dead are Hamas operatives, while Hamas claims the majority are civilians.
Along with its goal of wiping out Hamas, Israel also aims to bring home all the hostages still held in Gaza—two missions that sometimes seem at odds.
In the latest six-week ceasefire, which ended in the beginning of March, 38 hostages were released from Gaza. In return, Israel released almost 2,000 Palestinian prisoners and allowed for an increase in the flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza. Israeli forces withdrew from most of the Gaza Strip, maintaining a presence at two critical crossings in the territory.
Israel continues to threaten resumption of the war effort. Renewed fighting could be more intense than previous rounds now that American restraints imposed during the Biden administration have apparently been removed.
Another factor in Netanyahu’s insistence on continuing the war may have to do with Israeli politics.
Netanyahu’s popularity took a hit at the beginning of the war. He was seen by many Israelis as responsible for the empowerment of Hamas over the past two decades since Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza in 2006.
The current government is Israel’s furthest-right ever, and Netanyahu’s coalition partners are demanding a tougher stance against the Palestinians. This is something they believe the prime minister can now deliver now that President Trump is in office.
Netanyahu is now pulled between domestic politics and pressure and the need to accommodate a highly supportive White House. His continued corruption trial has his critics constantly questioning his motives, accusing him of clinging to power in order to avoid punishment.
On Thursday, lawmaker Benny Gantz of the opposition’s National Unity party explicitly accused Netanyahu of delaying an end to the war. He noted that Witkoff’s new proposal would result in the return of just five living hostages per month, down from the four living hostages released each week in the last phase of this deal or the 10 living hostages released each day in the first hostage exchange.
“The conclusion is simple—either Netanyahu is making concessions, or Netanyahu is stalling,” Gantz wrote.
What Happens When an Unstoppable Force Meets an Immovable Object?
Since President Trump returned to the White House two months ago, the American position on Israel has changed. The Biden administration followed a relatively restrictive policy toward Israel. Critical of the high death toll in Gaza, it delayed and halted the shipment of certain weapons to Israel. Biden also insisted Israel guarantee the constant flow of aid into Gaza. Trump’s White House has reneged on those decisions, essentially allowing the Israeli government to operate as it sees fit.
With President Trump’s green light, Israel has attempted to deprive Gaza of humanitarian aid and the means necessary to reconstruct.
The American interest is to put an end to the war, and for this, they need an end to the hostage crisis. Once this is achieved, the strategic objective is the entire deal, which is Israeli-Saudi normalization. This requires Israeli agreement to move forward on the Palestinian issue.
The Israeli military has made several announcements regarding its preparations should the fighting resume. “Clearly the army is preparing, and Netanyahu is under pressure from at least part of his coalition to do something quickly, while the US is pressing him to not move forward on this and try and reach a deal,” Chuck Freilich, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies, told The Media Line. “The American interest is to put an end to the war, and for this, they need an end to the hostage crisis. Once this is achieved, the strategic objective is the entire deal, which is Israeli-Saudi normalization. This requires Israeli agreement to move forward on the Palestinian issue.”
“Trump really wants a grand deal. Everything has to happen stage by stage,” Freilich added.
This is where things could get tricky for Netanyahu, whose senior coalition members rule out the establishment of a Palestinian state. Establishing an independent Palestinian state is believed to be the main precondition for the normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
There is a lot of room for disagreement between Israel and the US over the hostage deal, the end to the war, and the need to compromise on the Palestinian issue. Netanyahu wants the normalization, but he doesn’t want to pay the price needed for it.
“There is a lot of room for disagreement between Israel and the US over the hostage deal, the end to the war, and the need to compromise on the Palestinian issue,” Freilich said. “Netanyahu wants the normalization, but he doesn’t want to pay the price needed for it.”
President Trump’s grand foreign policy plan extends further than the Middle East. Israel is a critical component of the I2U2 Group, a coalition founded by the US that also includes the United Arab Emirates and India. The group aims to increase cooperation in the fields of water, energy, transportation, space, health, and food security across the four countries.
Saudi Arabia could play a pivotal role in this budding partnership, which is also meant to cement new trade pathways as the US attempts to counter Chinese efforts to dominate global trade.
“In the end, American power is far-reaching, both in terms of military force and financial prowess,” Shir Zablodovsky said. “The real global war is the trade war between the US and China and all the other issues are derivative of this. For now, this is to Israel’s advantage, as the US will do everything to ensure the release of the hostages.”
