Israel Faces Tough Questions About Future of Gaza War as Fight Against Hamas Continues
Israel is under increasing domestic and international pressure regarding its war on Hamas as the future of the Gaza Strip hangs in the balance
Israel’s war on Hamas is at a crossroads as the latest developments in the fighting have the country on edge and the political echelon grappling with major issues.
Over the weekend, Israeli soldiers misidentified three hostages as Hamas terrorists and killed them after they managed to escape their captors. It was a tragic development that ratcheted up public pressure to secure another hostage release. After the news broke, hundreds of protestors marched in Tel Aviv, prodding the government to act immediately.
Currently, Palestinian terrorists in Gaza are holding 129 hostages. To date, 105 hostages have been released through a Qatar-mediated deal in late November. Additionally, one Israeli soldier was freed in a military operation, and the bodies of other hostages were recovered by Israeli forces during their ground invasion of the Gaza Strip.
Relatives of the remaining hostages, advocating for a rapid release, have expressed concerns that the intense Israeli military action against Hamas endangers their loved ones. Many experts argue that it was precisely this military pressure that compelled Hamas to release some hostages last month.
The war began with a surprise Hamas offensive on Oct 7. During the onslaught, approximately 1,200 Israelis were killed, and another 250 people were abducted. Israel then launched a massive retaliation against Hamas in the Gaza Strip. According to numbers supplied by the Hamas-run Health Ministry in Gaza, almost 19,000 Palestinians have been killed and more than 50,000 have been injured since the war began.
The United Nations has reported that almost 2 million residents of Gaza have been displaced, fleeing from the Israeli military, many at its encouragement.
Israel has vowed to continue the war on Hamas until it achieves the two goals it set out for itself. In addition to toppling Hamas’ rule in Gaza, the government also promised to secure the release of all the hostages.
But as the war rages, there is increased pressure on Israel to relent. Within Israel, in addition to pressure to secure the release of the remaining hostages, there is mounting concern about the government’s lack of plans for post-war Gaza. This coincides with increased American pressure on the same matter. There is also international pressure on Israel to stop its offensive as casualties amass in Gaza and the humanitarian crisis in the already-impoverished territory worsens.
For now, the Israeli government appears resolute to move forward with its plans.
Israel has to continue until we reach a complete victory; the future of Israel depends on that
“Israel has to continue until we reach a complete victory; the future of Israel depends on that,” said Ohad Tal, a member of the Israeli parliament from the Religious Zionism party. “Defeating Hamas has to be the main priority,” he told The Media Line.
It is widely understood that the ongoing intense fighting, involving tens of thousands of Israeli troops in the Gaza Strip, is unsustainable over a prolonged period.
In order to succeed, Israel needs to break the Hamas military command and control and governances during this period
“The next month to six weeks is going to be critical in terms of the military campaign,” said Prof Jonathan Rynhold, head of the Department of Political Studies at Bar-Ilan University. “In order to succeed, Israel needs to break the Hamas military command and control and governances during this period,” he told The Media Line.
According to Rynhold, the following period could last up to a year and would include less intense fighting and a short period of Israeli military occupation until another governing power takes over Gaza.
White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan’s visit to Israel over the weekend was another American effort to steer Israel towards a new stage in its campaign against Hamas.
“The talks between Israel and the US are multifaceted,” said Dr. Ely Karmon, a senior researcher at the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism at Reichman University. “The US military has a better understanding of what Israel is facing, after its own experience in Mosul and Baraka in Iraq and other places. But there is a disagreement on the political level, particularly with regards to the end game in Gaza,” Karmon explained to The Media Line.
Last week, US President Joe Biden made public comments about his difficulties with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s ultra-nationalist government. Netanyahu is restricted by his extremist coalition partners to discuss any future for Gaza with the participation of the Palestinian Authority (PA), which rules the West Bank. He is also hampered by his dip in the polls as Israelis recover from the shock of Oct. 7 and look forward to a very uncertain future as the war continues.
“Netanyahu cannot say anything that is good for the Palestinians as it will be bad for most of his government,” Rynhold said. “But as far as the Israeli public goes, they also don’t want to hear about this right now. Even if it is not good policy, it is very understandable at this point.”
Last week, Agam Labs at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem conducted a Gaza War Omnibus survey, revealing a wide spectrum of Israeli sentiments about postwar Gaza. Around 23% of respondents advocate for moderate Arab countries to oversee Gaza, compared to 22% favoring Israeli military governance. Additionally, 18% favor control by an international force, and another 18% lean towards Israel annexing Gaza. Eleven percent support the Palestinian Authority (PA) taking control of Gaza.
“This spectrum of opinions highlights the complexity and divergence in viewpoints regarding Gaza’s future governance,” a press release by the Hebrew University read.
The PA, led by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and his Fatah party—considered more moderate than Hamas—has its own set of challenges. In 2007, Hamas seized control of the Gaza Strip from the PA, expelling Abbas and his allies and deepening internal Palestinian divisions.
“The entity that will control Gaza the day after doesn’t exist right now,” Tal told The Media Line. “It cannot be the Fatah, because there really is no difference between Fatah and Hamas. The only difference is that in the West Bank, Israel is controlling and preventing the PA from having the capabilities that Hamas has.”
More than two months after Hamas terrorists attacked Israel, Abbas has yet to condemn either Hamas or the attack. Nonetheless, Israel and the PA maintain cooperation, with ongoing security coordination that helps manage tensions in the West Bank. Years of corruption and delayed elections have fueled growing unpopularity for Abbas and the PA among Palestinians. A recent poll showed 90% of Palestinians would like Abbas to resign. This poll also revealed significant public support for Hamas’ October 7 attack on Israel, intensifying Israeli concerns about future relations with its neighbors.
Meanwhile, the US advocates for a unified Palestinian government to govern both the West Bank and Gaza post-conflict.
What is needed is a responsible and representative Palestinian leadership, together with Egyptian guarantees
“What is needed is a responsible and representative Palestinian leadership, together with Egyptian guarantees,” said Karmon. “Egypt, which shares a border with Gaza, is one of the most important players in the matter.”
On Sunday, multiple media outlets reported the initiation of new negotiations for a potential hostage release deal between Israel and Hamas. The previous deal involved releasing hostages in exchange for a temporary cease-fire, increased humanitarian aid, and the release of numerous Palestinian prisoners, all of them women and youth, from Israeli jails.
“Israel can make several demands in order for such a deal to happen,” Karmon said. “It should stop the humanitarian aid from entering Gaza for a few days, demand that the International Committee of the Red Cross visit the Israeli hostages, and the incarceration or expulsion of Hamas leaders abroad.”
“The fighting must continue alongside these threats if Israel wants to achieve something,” he added.
Some Israelis demand the release of all Palestinian prisoners held by Israel, approximately 7,000, in exchange for all remaining hostages. It remains uncertain if Hamas would accept such a proposal without a cease-fire, which might compel Israel to abandon its objective of neutralizing Hamas.
“The government needs to assess how realistic this is in actually getting all the hostages out,” said Rynhold. “Hamas has an interest in stringing everyone along. As long as Hamas thinks it can survive, they will keep the hostages.”
The blunder in which hostages were killed by Israeli fire could push the government to initiate a deal with Hamas. Reports on Sunday said Israel’s Mossad chief met with the prime minister of Qatar in Europe over the weekend to discuss a new framework for the release of the hostages. This meeting has not been officially confirmed.
“Israel cannot accept any cease-fire, which means Hamas will continue to threaten Israel on its border, which is an unacceptable reality,” said Tal. “What brought us the first deal was heavy pressure on Hamas. Only when they feel they have their back against the wall will Hamas feel pressured to negotiate a new deal.”
In the days ahead, Netanyahu must carefully balance various pressures and interests, including his own and those of Israel. He will make these decisions amid intense conflict in the Gaza Strip and rapidly evolving situations.
